Forex - Market is looking for direction with lower Crude Oil and better US data
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Forex News and Events:
The dollar rose to a one-month high above 108.00 yen on Monday, riding on the momentum gained from better-than-expected US indicators released late last week.
Upbeat readings on US durable goods orders, new home sales and consumer sentiment released last Friday buoyed the Dollar by lifting some of the gloom over the US economy. US durable goods orders were up 0.8% in June from a revised 0.1% in May. New home sales fell to a 530k annual pace last month against market expectations for a drop to 500k. Consumer sentiment recovered unexpectedly in July after falling in June to the lowest level since 1980.
The slide in crude oil prices also supported the greenback. More good news on the mortgage sector came after US Senate voted on Friday to limit debate on a bill aimed at shoring up both Fannie May and Freddie Mac, paving the way for a final vote on Saturday.
On Friday, UsdJpy rose to 107.96 high before ending at 107.84 up 0.5%. EurUsd rose 0.11% to 1.5704. UsdChf rose 0.05% to 1.0363. GbpUsd was 0.18% lower at 1.9879.
As a near-term incentive, traders are eyeing the direction of crude oil prices, which have dropped recently and helped underpin the Dollar, and US non-farms payrolls data, which is due on Friday. European corporate earnings due this week may provide some direction to the Market, traders said.
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Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
22:45 NZD June Merchandise trade 3.81B vs 3.92B
22:45 NZD June Trade Balance month -223M vs -196M
22:45 NZD June Trade Balance Year -4.48B vs -4.81B
06:00 EUR August Germany GfK consumer sentiment 3.5 vs 3.9
16:00 USD June Midwest manufacturing previously 104.8
22:45 NZD June Building consents previously -42.3%
23:30 JPY June All households spending -2.8% vs -3.2%
23:30 JPY June Jobs/applicants ratio 0.91 vs 0.92
23:30 JPY June Unemployment rate 4% vs 4%
23:30 JPY June Retail sales -0.2% vs 0.2%
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The Risk Today:
EurUsd Market broke on Wednesday 1.5800 support which lightly undermine the current 3-month uptrend. Further weakness might play in 1.5400 – 1.5800 consolidation range. Below, strong support holds 1.5304 13th June low. Key initial resistance holds 1.6000. A break up there would open the way to Trendline resistance 1.6200.
GbpUsd Cable is set in short term 1.9800 – 2.0100 trading range. It hit 2.0158 high two weeks ago. Key level holds again 2.0100. On the downside, only a return below 1.9649 might bring again focus on 1.9337 January low and 1.9105 (50% retracement of 1.7049 – 2.1162 advance). Initial support holds 1.9649 July 7th low. Strong support holds 1.9363 20th February and 14th May low.
UsdJpy Last week recover pushed the market to 108. Friday strong Dollar rebound put focus on mid-June 108.59 resistance and 110.10 strong resistance (Trendline). Further advance would open the way toward 111.92 early January high. On the downside, a return below 105 may open the way toward 102.73 support and 100 pivot point.
UsdChf Recent Dollar strength pushed last week over 1.0200 and is now trading near 1.0400. This is reopening the view for a 1.0200 – 1.0600 consolidation range. Initial resistance holds 1.0408 last week high. Renewed weakness below 1.0200 would retest the 1.0000 pivot point and may open the way toward 0.9637 17th March low.
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Resistance and Support:
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EURUSD |
GBPUSD |
USDJPY |
USDCHF |
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1.6200 T |
2.1162 S |
111.92 K |
1.1191 K |
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1.6039 M |
2.0158 M |
110.10 T |
1.0625 T |
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1.6000 K |
2.0100 K |
108.59 S |
1.0408 S |
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1.5700 |
1.9900 |
108.00 |
1.0380 |
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1.5400 S |
1.9754 S |
105.00 P |
1.0013 M |
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1.5304 S |
1.9649 S |
102.73 S |
1.0000 P |
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1.5000 K |
1.9337 T |
100.00 P |
0.9637 K |
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S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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