Payrolls expected to decline for the fourth straight month
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News and Events:
The dollar held firm ground overnight trading between 1.5446 and 1.5482. Yesterday’s data came out slightly better than expectations: ISM manufacturing index was flat at 48.6, better than a decline. Weekly jobless claims rose more than expected, to 380,000 versus a consensus of 365,000. Core PCE prices rose 0.2%m/m, pointing to a possible aggressive Fed stance against inflation in the medium-term. The Non-Farm Payrolls announcement is the highlight of the day. The market is anticipating a 100,000 drop and a 0.2% rise in unemployment to 5.3%.
Australian retail sales came out better than expected at 0.5%m/m versus a consensus of 0.3%m/m. The RBA is closely monitoring real demand and consumption, and with commodity prices retreating, the AUDUSD pair may face large downside pressure.
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Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
09:00 EUR PMI Manufacturing APR F 50.8 vs 50.8
09:30 GBP PMI Construction APR 47 vs 47.2
13:30 USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls APR -78k vs -80k
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate APR 5.20% vs 5.10%
13:30 USD Change in Manufact. Payrolls APR -35K vs -48K
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings MoM APR 0.30% vs 0.30%
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings YoY APR 3.60% vs 3.60%
13:30 USD Average Weekly Hours APR 33.7 vs 33.8
14:00 USD RPX Composite 28dy Index Feb-29
14:00 USD RPX Composite 28dy YoY FEB
15:00 USD Factory Orders MAR 0.20% vs -1.30%
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The Risk Today:
EurUsd targeting major support level of 1.5342. A daily/weekly close below this level opens the door straight down to 1.5000. The pair is also at the bottom of the sideways channel, with risk of a rebound to 1.6038 still imminent.
GbpUsd showing heavy consolidation between 1.9600 and 2.0000. The market does not show any strong signs of power to pass 2.0000, therefore we target a triple bottom at 1.9346.
UsdJpy hits the Winnipeg line at 105.00. The pair could have a major move to the downside as a result, however, on the upside, 108.67 is the next target.
UsdChf is looking to close above 1.0478 to confirm a solid retracement and move back up is in the works. Current support holds at 1.0262.
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Resistance and Support:
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EURUSD |
GBPUSD |
USDJPY |
USDCHF |
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1.6200 T |
2.0577 T |
111.92 K |
1.1191 S |
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1.6019 M |
2.0447 S |
110.10 T |
1.0500 S |
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1.6000 K |
2.0100 P |
105.00 S |
1.0457 T |
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1.5473 |
1.9842 |
104.68 |
1.0480 |
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1.5400 S |
1.9650 S |
102.95 M |
1.0200 S |
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1.5246 S |
1.9337 S |
100.00 P |
0.9637 K |
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1.5000 K |
1.9105 K |
95.74 S |
0.9500 T |
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S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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