Forex - US data pointing to mild recession; traders await payrolls today
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Forex News and Events:
US weekly jobless claims came in at 407,000, up 38k from 369k week prior. ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 49.6 versus an expectation of 48.5. This data points to an imminent mild recession in the US. The greenback fell against the majors in early trading this morning; the EURUSD rising to 1.5723 and GBPUSD rising to 2.0035.
Softening data coming out of the Euro-zone trigger questions of how much longer the ECB can remain hawkish. What traders are awaiting is Non-Farm Payrolls today out at 12.30h GMT. Consensus anticipates a drop of 50k, with some banks even reporting a forecast drop of 75k. Whichever figure comes out, the near-term outlook for the US dollar is bullish as the Euro-zone economy begins to soften.
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Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
11:00 EUR Factory Orders MoM (sa) FEB 0.90% vs -1.50%
11:00 EUR Factory Orders YoY (nsa) FEB 6.60% vs 9.50%
12:00 CAD Unemployment Rate MAR 5.80% vs 5.80%
12:00 CAD Net Change in Employment MAR 15.0K vs 43.3K
13:30 USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls MAR -50k vs -63k
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate MAR 5.00% vs 4.80%
13:30 USD Change in Manufact. Payrolls MAR -40K vs -52K
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings MoM MAR 0.30% vs 0.30%
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings YoY MAR 3.60% vs 3.70%
13:30 USD Average Weekly Hours MAR 33.7 vs 33.7
15:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index MAR 62.5 vs 62
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The Risk Today:
EurUsd downside risk is the market ultimately looking at 1.5400 on the bottom of the sideways channel. On the upside, a triple-top is possible at 1.5900.
GbpUsd heavy under 2.0050 (trend line) and this remains a key level. Look for a breakout above 2.0050 or a revisit to 1.9732.
UsdJpy ripe for a Winnipeg opportunity to bounce off the major trend line. Upside risk remains strong to 105.00 while the downside points to a target of 96.86.
UsdChf consolidating between 0.9770 and 1.0330. The pair looks like to bounce off 1.0500, a Winnipeg trade opportunity.
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Resistance and Support:
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EURUSD |
GBPUSD |
USDJPY |
USDCHF |
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1.6000 K |
2.0577 T |
108.53 M |
1.0761 M |
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1.5905 S |
2.0447 S |
105.16 S |
1.0530 S |
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1.5850 M |
2.0271 M |
103.30 T |
1.0244 M |
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1.5700 |
1.9986 |
102.46 |
1.0083 |
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1.5533 M |
1.9717 M |
98.46 M |
0.9750 M |
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1.5000 K |
1.9354 S |
95.74 S |
0.9639 K |
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1.4500 P |
1.8945 T |
94.83 T |
0.9500 T |
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S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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