Forex - Bernanke says little; Dollar strengthens across the board
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Forex News and Events:
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking to the Joint Economic Committee, remained reticent on future monetary policy, however he discuss steps to ameliorate the liquidity crisis. Bernanke further indicated that the US economy may face an economic contraction this year however was much more optimistic for 2009. Investors look toward how the US government will handle the crisis in the banking industry which may help the outlook for the greenback.
Euro-zone PPI came in roughly as expected at 5.3% versus 5.2% consensus and 4.9% previous. The jump was primarily driven by higher energy prices, which have recently lost strength upwards. Economists believe that this figure will change the inflationary outlook for the Euro-zone.
Today we forward to jobless claims and non-manufacturing ISM at 12.30h and 14.00h GMT respectively.
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Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
09:00 EUR PMI Services MAR F 51.7 vs 51.7
09:00 GBP PMI Services MAR F 52.5 vs 52.5
09:00 EUR PMI Composite MAR F 51.9 vs 51.9
09:30 GBP PMI Services MAR 53.3 vs 54
09:30 GBP Official Reserves (Changes) MAR
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) FEB 0.20% vs 0.40%
10:00 EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) FEB 0.00% vs -0.10%
13:30 Initial Jobless Claims Mar-29 366K vs 366K
13:30 Continuing Claims Mar-22 2848K vs 2845K
14:00 RPX Composite 28dy Index JAN
14:00 RPX Composite 28dy YoY JAN
15:00 ISM Non-Manf. Composite MAR 48.5 vs 49.3
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The Risk Today:
EurUsd downside risk is the market ultimately looking at 1.5400 on the bottom of the sideways channel. On the upside, a triple-top is possible at 1.5900.
GbpUsd heavy under 1.9980 and stalling again at the 1.9760 support. Risk remains for a retracement to 1.9970 and 2.0100.
UsdJpy heading for the trend line at 103.90. Downside risk remains high for a move back down to 98.80 and 96.70.
UsdChf consolidating between 0.9770 and 1.0330. The pair looks like to bounce off 1.0500, a Winnipeg trade opportunity.
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Resistance and Support:
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EURUSD |
GBPUSD |
USDJPY |
USDCHF |
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1.6000 K |
2.0577 T |
108.53 M |
1.0761 M |
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1.5905 S |
2.0447 S |
105.16 S |
1.0530 S |
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1.5850 M |
2.0271 M |
103.30 T |
1.0244 M |
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1.5603 |
1.9791 |
102.86 |
1.0155 |
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1.5533 M |
1.9717 M |
98.46 M |
0.9750 M |
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1.5000 K |
1.9354 S |
95.74 S |
0.9639 K |
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1.4500 P |
1.8945 T |
94.83 T |
0.9500 T |
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S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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