Forex - Pairs trade in tight ranges before Payrolls; USDCAD hits parity, again.
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Forex News and Events:
Jobless claims rose to 375k from 306k, above the expected 320k. The Chicago PMI dropped to 51.5 from 56.4 in January versus 52.0 expected. In the aftermath of two Fed rate cuts, traders now focus on today’s employment report. There is debate whether the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 5.0% or actually fall to 4.9%, some even forecasting a 75,000 rise in payrolls. On another note, the European Central Bank remains concerned about inflation, hence the dollar weakness may not be over.
November Canadian GDP growth eased to 0.1% from 0.2% in October, sending the USDCAD back to parity and to a high of 1.0085. Further supporting the pair was Bank of Canada Governor Dodge implying that the Canadian economy will begin feeling the effects of the US slowdown.
US employment and payroll report will come out at 14.30h CET (13.30 GMT)
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Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
13:30 CAD Industrial Product Price MoM DEC 0.60% vs 0.60%
13:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index MoM DEC 0.80% vs 3.40%
13:30 USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls JAN 65k vs 18k
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate JAN 5.00% vs 5.00%
13:30 USD Change in Manufact. Payrolls JAN -20K vs -31K
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings MoM JAN 0.30% vs 0.40%
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings YoY JAN 3.90% vs 3.70%
13:30 USD Average Weekly Hours JAN 33.8 vs 33.8
14:00 USD RPX Composite 28dy YoY NOV
14:00 USD RPX Composite 28dy Index NOV
15:00 USD U. of Michigan Confidence JAN F 79 vs 80.5
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing JAN 47.2 vs 47.7
15:00 USD ISM Prices Paid JAN 68 vs 68
15:00 USD Construction Spending MoM DEC -0.50% vs 0.10%
17:00 EUR New Car Registrations (YoY) JAN
18:00 EUR Budget Balance JAN
18:00 EUR Budget Balance (Year to date) JAN
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The Risk Today:
EurUsd has made the triple top (as discussed in our newsletter on January 30th). Minor trend line support holds at 1.4765, while the target is 1.5000 on the upside.
GbpUsd trading in a very tight range between 1.9765 and 1.9960. The upside target remains at 2.0137. Look for 1.9560 if the 1.9765 is broken.
UsdJpy hovering at the 106.51 support line for two weeks now. Buying or selling the breakout is what we’re looking at right now. The downside risk remains high with a target of 102.00
UsdChf has broken down through the trend line support and historical low of 1.0838; this is extremely bearish. The pair is bearish anywhere under 1.1114.
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Resistance and Support:
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EURUSD |
GBPUSD |
USDJPY |
USDCHF |
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1.5000 K |
2.0245 S |
114.00 P |
1.1500 P |
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1.4967 S |
2.0100 S |
110.10 S |
1.1191 S |
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1.4907 M |
1.9985 M |
107.89 M |
1.1114 M |
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1.4868 |
1.9918 |
106.40 |
1.0804 |
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1.4500 P |
1.9765 M |
106.00 S |
1.0758 M |
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1.4366 T |
1.9560 M |
104.97 M |
1.0500 S |
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1.4280 S |
1.9177 S |
104.20 T |
1.0000 K |
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S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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