Forex - Dollar unchanged even after better than expected Jobless claims
News and Events:
The dollar remained unchanged today even though weekly jobless claims came out better than expected, at 319k versus an expected 325k. With market sentiment in favor of the Euro, traders expecting a Fed rate cut next week and a long string of weak economic data from the U.S., the dollar remains at record lows. Last week's Non-farm payrolls indicated that the credit troubles in the U.S. have began to take a considerable toll on the broader economy.
Today we look to a final barrage of economic data, namely Current Account Balance, Retail Sales, and U.S. Import and Export prices. Estimates remain on the downside, with 0.2% growth expected from retail sales, down from 0.4% last month. Many traders eye 1.4000 for the Euro ahead of an expected Fed rate cut.
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Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
09:00 EC Euro-Zone CPI (MoM) AUG 0.10% vs -0.20%
09:00 EC Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) AUG 1.80% vs 1.80%
09:00 EC Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) AUG 1.90% vs 1.90%
12:30 CA Manufacturing Shipments MoM JUL 1.00% vs -1.80%
12:30 CA Labor Productivity QoQ 2Q 0.40%vs 0.70%
12:30 US Current Account Balance 2Q -$190.0B vs -$192.6B
12:30 US Import Price Index (MoM) AUG 0.20% vs 1.50%
12:30 US Import Price Index (YoY) AUG
12:30 US Advance Retail Sales AUG 0.50% vs 0.30%
12:30 US Retail Sales Less Autos AUG 0.20% vs 0.40%
13:15 US Industrial Production AUG 0.30% vs 0.30%
13:15 US Capacity Utilization AUG 82.00% vs 81.90%
14:00 US U. of Michigan Confidence SEP P 83.5 vs 83.4
14:00 US Business Inventories JUL 0.30% vs 0.40%
15:15 IT Current Account (mlns euro) JUL |
The Risk Today:
EurUsd: finding strong resistance at 1.3968 ahead of 1.4000. Downside risk remains high through to 1.3765.
GbpUsd has changed tide for the short-term. With 2.0398 as target a resistance, yet the pair slammed down through its support at 2.0235, opening the door to 2.0153 and 2.0070.
UsdJpy focuses on 112.61 and 111.61 and remains below the resistance of 115.66.
UsdChf Key support found at 1.1816, however entirely bearish under 1.1962.
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Resistance and Support:
| EURUSD |
GBPUSD |
USDJPY |
USDCHF |
| 1.4000 K |
2.0654 K |
119.11 T |
1.2150 T |
| 1.3968 M |
2.0467 S |
116.50 M |
1.1996 P |
| 1.3900 S |
2.0273 M |
115.53 S |
1.1884 S |
| 1.3868 |
2.0200 |
114.86 |
1.1854 |
| 1.3713 M |
2.0153 S |
112.65 S |
1.1812 T |
| 1.3666 M |
2.0070 T |
111.58 T |
1.1742 M |
| 1.3551 S |
1.9893 S |
109.58 S |
1.1630 S |
| S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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 forex-news_9-14-07 -
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