Forex - Has the Dollar weakness taken a turn?
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News and Events:
Economic announcements due today will shed some more light on speculation that the Euro-zone economies are beginning to feel the pinch of the credit markets. U.K. CPI and GDP along with German ZEW survey results are scheduled for early this morning. The expectation is that the figures will further disappoint and send the Euro and Pound falling even more against the dollar.
Another sign of slight dollar strength was the drop in the price of Gold. The precious metal fell $40/ounce yesterday as profits were taken and long Euro and Pound trades were unwound. Silver fell $1.11/ounce or 7% of its value. Gold and Silver trade at $802 and 14.6000 in early trading this morning.
Today’s most interesting chart is the USDJPY. The pair has been a fantastic technical performer and an easy one to follow.
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Today's Key Issues (time in GMT):
09:00 GDP sa and wda (QoQ) 3Q P 0.40% vs. 0.10%
09:00 GDP sa and wda (YoY) 3Q P 2.00% vs. 1.80%
09:30 CPI (MoM) OCT 0.30% vs. 0.10%
09:30 CPI (YoY) OCT 1.90% vs. 1.80%
09:30 Core CPI YOY OCT 1.70% vs. 1.50%
09:30 Retail Price Index OCT 208.6 vs. 208
09:30 RPI (MoM) OCT 0.40% vs. 0.30%
09:30 RPI (YoY) OCT 4.20% vs. 3.90%
09:30 RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) OCT 3.00% vs. 2.80%
10:00 ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) NOV -20 vs. -19
10:00 ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) NOV -20 vs. -18.1
10:00 Zew Survey (Current Situation) NOV 67 vs. 70.2
10:00 Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. sa (MoM) SEP -0.40% vs. 1.20%
10:00 Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda (YoY) SEP 4.50% vs. 4.30%
10:00 European Commission GDP Forecasts (Table)
15:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism NOV 47 vs. 47.3
19:00 Monthly Budget Statement OCT -$59.0B vs. -$49.3B
20:00 Pending Home Sales MoM SEP -2.50% vs. -6.50%
22:00 ABC Consumer Confidence Nov-11 -16 vs. -15
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The Risk Today:
EurUsd bullish above 1.4542. There is still pullback risk down to 1.4340 at the trend line support. Resistance holds firm at 1.4752, the all time record high.
GbpUsd holding above trend line support (2.0464). The pair as traded to above 2.0660 early this morning and if it closes above this level, the bias remains at bullish.
UsdJpy hit and stalled at our target of 109.60. The pair has room to continue down to 108.00, a major trend line support. The pair will only be bullish at and above 113.93.
UsdChf has also halted at 1.1290, a key level support. The pair will only be bullish above 1.1629. Next minor support at 1.1190.
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Resistance and Support:
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EURUSD |
GBPUSD |
USDJPY |
USDCHF |
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1.5000 K |
2.1355 K |
119.06 T |
1.1923 S |
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1.4730 T |
2.1161 T |
117.63 S |
1.1640 T |
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1.4703 M |
2.1000 M |
114.00 M |
1.1500 P |
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1.4599 |
2.0682 |
109.90 |
1.1255 |
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1.4500 K |
2.0654 S |
109.85 M |
1.1210 M |
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1.4400 M |
2.0500 P |
109.00 S |
1.1110 T |
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1.4280 S |
2.3070 S |
108.77 S |
1.1000 K |
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S: Strong, M: Minor, T: Trendline, K: Keylevel, P: Pivot |
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