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EURUSD Whipsawed As Greece Headlines Fly


April 09, 2010 5:36 PM CEST
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
NZD1.46
DKK1.06
EUR1.01
NOK0.83
GBP0.79
CHF0.65
AUD0.59
SEK0.53
JPY0.04
CAD-0.18

Global Indexes Current Level % Change
FTSE 100 Index5'759.25+ 0.81
DAX Index6'232.20+ 0.98
SMI Index6'878.67+ 1.29
S&P 500 Index1'190.38+ 0.33
DJIA Index10'972.49+ 0.42
Nikkei 225 Futures11'240.00+ 0.63
Hang Seng Futures22'048.00+ 1.70
World Markets Current Level % Change
Gold1'162.22+ 1.01
Silver18.42+ 1.76
VIX16.48 0.00
Crude wti84.94- 0.53
USD Index81.14- 0.44
Todays Calender Estimates Previous Country / GMT
No further releases---------
Currency Tech

EURUSD
R 2: 1.3600
R 1: 1.3485
CURRENT: 1.3485
S 1: 1.3268
S 2: 1.3093

USDJPY
R 2: 97.78
R 1: 95.00
CURRENT: 93.15
S 1: 92.15
S 2: 91.38

GBPUSD
R 2: 1.5500
R 1: 1.5400
CURRENT: 1.5380
S 1: 1.5315
S 2: 1.5250

AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9500
R 1: 0.9450
CURRENT: 0.9335
S 1: 0.9050
S 2: 0.8980

USDCAD
R 2: 1.0310
R 1: 1.0140
CURRENT: 1.0050
S 1: 0.9980
S 2: 0.9900
Market Brief

For a day that was squaring up to be rather tame (judging by the economic release calendar), we have actually encountered a pretty whirlwind session for EURUSD after two shock news items hit the wires in the afternoon. Having been rather directionless in the morning session the pair suddenly spiked 100 pips higher to 1.3472 on news that European Union officials had reached an agreement on funding a bailout backstop for Greece. Under the rumoured terms, Greece would be able to tap a EUR20-25bn fund which would be backed jointly by the other 15 EU member countries and the IMF; at a rate 275bp above Euribor – so an appetizing yield for the countries putting up the cash, but still far lower than prevailing rates demanded by the bond markets. EURUSD’s sharp rally managed to get within a stone’s throw of challenging the major 4 month downtrend at 1.3485, but this move was stopped in its tracks and aggressively countered soon after on the announcement that Fitch was downgrading Greece’s long term debt rating to BBB- (from BBB+), outlook negative. The pullback took us rapidly back to 1.3415, but confusion still reigns supreme and the price action has been very choppy around 1.3450 since then.

The rest of the day’s economic releases have paled in comparison to the afternoon’s events; the most market-moving news was arguably the latest polls on UK’s upcoming general election which suggested a far more decisive victory for the Conservative party was likely. GBPUSD was boosted from 1.5280 levels to 1.5394 highs as the short squeeze triggered stops, but the bullish momentum ran out of steam after the release of March PPI data. Although output prices climbed 0.9% MoM (0.4% expected), the corresponding input prices leapt an enormous 3.6% (1.2% expected), suggesting that UK firms are continuing to have their margins squeezed by rising raw material costs but limited ability to raise end-product prices. Canadian unemployment stayed steady at 8.2% in March which came as a slight disappointment to consensus (who were looking for a decrease to 8.1%), but CAD’s losses have been limited, trading up to a high of 1.0083 before paring back to current 1.0050.


USD, JPY weaken over Greece


April 09, 2010 10:55 AM CEST
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
NZD0.76
GBP0.75
NOK0.36
EUR0.34
DKK0.33
CHF0.28
AUD0.26
CAD0.16
SEK0.11
JPY-0.33

Global Indexes Current Level % Change
Nikkei 225 Index11204.34+ 0.32
Hang Seng Index22208.50+ 1.56
Shanghai Index3145.35+ 0.85
FTSE 100 Index5759.10+ 0.98
DAX Index6229.18+ 0.93
SMI Index6863.60+ 1.07
DJIA futures10908+ 0.22
World Markets Current Level % Change
Gold1156.63+ 0.53
Silver18.24+ 0.73
VIX16.48- 0.84
Crude wti86.33+ 1.10
USD Index81.24- 0.31
Todays Calender Estimates Previous Country / GMT
German Trade Balance11.4B8.0BEUR / 06:00
PPI Input NSA (MoM)1.2%0.1%UK / 08:30
PPI Input NSA (YoY)7.1%6.9%UK / 08:30
PPI Output n.s.a. (MoM)0.4%0.3%UK / 08:30
PPI Output n.s.a. (YoY)4.4%4.1%UK / 08:30
PPI Output Core NSA (MoM)0.3%0.3%UK / 08:30
Output Cose NSA (YoY)3.1%2.9%UK / 08:30
Net Change in Employment26.0K20.9KCAN / 11:00
Unemployment Rate8.1%8.2%CAN / 11:00
Wholesale Inventories0.4%-0.2%US / 14:00
Currency Tech

EURUSD
R 2: 1.3725
R 1: 1.3585
CURRENT: 1.3376
S 1: 1.3250
S 2: 1.3030

USDJPY
R 2: 96.80
R 1: 95.00
CURRENT: 93.42
S 1: 92.45
S 2: 91.53

GBPUSD
R 2: 1.5420
R 1: 1.5350
CURRENT: 1.5297
S 1: 1.5050
S 2: 1.4950

AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9425
R 1: 0.9329
CURRENT: 0.9292
S 1: 0.9066
S 2: 0.8945

USDCAD
R 2: 1.0310
R 1: 1.0140
CURRENT: 1.0014
S 1: 0.9980
S 2: 0.9900
Market Brief

The AUDUSD headed for a second week of gains trading near a 12 week high at 0.9283 in early morning trade, having gained 1% this week after the nation’s interest-rate advantage over the US widened to near the most since 2008 with extra yield offered by two-year Australian debt over similar maturity Treasuries rose to 398 basis points on April 7, the most since July 2008. NZDUSD was also poised for a second weekly advance trading at 0.7077 as easing concern Greece will default on its debt boosted demand for higher-yielding assets. The two currencies were boosted after ECB President Trichet said he doesn’t expect Greece to default on its debt and it probably won’t need aid from the EU. The EURJPY rose for a second day to 124.94 while the USDJPY rose to 93.51 as signs the global economy is improving and speculation Greece will avoid a default damped demand for the safety of JPY. The JPY weakened against all 16 of its major counterparts before reports today that economists said will show German exports rose 4 percent (prev. -6.4%) in February and U.K. producer prices rose an annual 4.4 percent (prev. 4.1%) in March the most since December 2008.

USDCAD also headed for a second weekly decline trading at 1.0015 after trading at parity for the first time since July 2008 amid signs Canada’s economic recovery is gaining traction. Employment in Canada is expected to rise by 26,000 in March, a third month of gains, and the jobless rate falling to 8.1% in March, the least since April 2009.


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