|
|
Consolidation Day For FX Pairs
February 08, 2010 5:28 PM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NOK | 0.96 |  | | | SEK | 0.89 | | | | AUD | 0.83 | | | | NZD | 0.67 | | | | CHF | 0.66 | | | | DKK | 0.55 | | | | EUR | 0.51 | | | | CAD | 0.38 | | | | GBP | 0.19 | |  | JPY | -0.02 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| FTSE 100 Index | 5'092.67 | + 0.63 | | DAX Index | 5'493.68 | + 1.09 | | SMI Index | 6'350.26 | + 1.37 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'070.41 | + 0.40 | | DJIA Index | 10'018.730 | + 0.06 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 1'071.55 | + 0.49 | | Silver | 15.18 | + 0.07 | | VIX | 26.02 | - 0.34 | | Crude wti | 71.88 | + 0.97 | | USD Index | 80.11 | - 0.41 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| Tue 9 Feb | --- | --- | --- | | Germany: Trade balance, € bn (sa) Dec | 15.0 | 17.2 | EUR/07:00 | | Germany: Final HICP, % m/m (y/y) Jan | -0.7 (0.7) | 0.9 (0.8) | EUR/07:00 | | Trade balance, £ bn Dec | -6.6 | -6.8 | GBP/09:30 | | Wholesale inventories, % m/m Dec | 0.5 | 1.5 | USD/15:00 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.3850
R 1: 1.3750
CURRENT: 1.3700
S 1: 1.3600
S 2: 1.3484
USDJPY
R 2: 90.00
R 1: 89.70
CURRENT: 89.30
S 1: 88.55
S 2: 88.10
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.5730
R 1: 1.5660
CURRENT: 1.5650
S 1: 1.5535
S 2: 1.5480
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8830
R 1: 0.8756
CURRENT: 0.8700
S 1: 0.8579
S 2: 0.8545
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0870
R 1: 1.0781
CURRENT: 1.0695
S 1: 1.0645
S 2: 1.0598
|
|
Market Brief |
It has been a range-bound session for the majors as a lack of economic releases coupled with the absence of new sovereign debt headlines allowed risk assets to stabilize somewhat. For now, the panic element that had fuelled EURUSD’s plunge has subsided, but worries surrounding the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) are by no means gone, leaving EURUSD stable but still heavy around 1.3695 levels. Gold has also conceded some of its morning rebound gains (that had seen it trade up to $1173.50), and has now dropped back to $1172 levels, having been as low as $1161.90 on the lower open in US equities.
The only economic data from the majors was Swiss unemployment and retails sales, both of which were broadly encouraging. The unemployment rate came in at a seasonally adjusted 4.1%, lower than the 4.3% forecast and down on the prior month’s 4.2% reading. Retail sales were also impressive at 4.7% YoY (compared with 0.6% last), although this has historically been a rather volatile figure. USDCHF has drifted gradually lower throughout the day, and is currently testing the lows around 1.0695; however the 1 month uptrend support coming in at 1.0675 will likely hold on the first visit.
Looking ahead to tomorrow’s calendar, there will only be a slight uptick in activity on the data release front. In the morning, expect German CPI and UK trade balance figures, followed by US wholesale inventories in the afternoon. We doubt that these events are capable of being the core drivers of any FX moves, with markets prone to be far more sensitive to sovereign debt headlines, equity market performance and technical factors.
|
|
No Official G7 Communiqué
February 08, 2010 9:36 AM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 0.42 | | | | AUD | 0.28 | | | | NOK | 0.18 | | | | CAD | 0.15 | | | | CHF | 0.09 | | | | EUR | 0.06 | | | | DKK | 0.04 | | | JPY | -0.03 | | | SEK | -0.06 | | | GBP | -0.33 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,951.82 | - 1.04 | | Hang Seng Index | 19,439.45 | - 1.14 | | Shanghai Index | 2,935.37 | - 0.13 | | FTSE futures | 5,025.50 | - 1.51 | | DAX futures | 5,457.00 | - 1.38 | | SMI Futures | 6,180.00 | - 2.30 | | S&P future | 1,058.60 | - 0.11 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 1,068.24 | + 0.18 | | Silver | 15.15 | - 0.13 | | VIX | 26.11 | + 0.11 | | Crude wti | 71.54 | + 0.49 | | USD Index | 80.49 | + 0.06 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| Retail sales, % y/y | -- | 0.6 | CHF / 08.15 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8830
R 1: 0.8756
CURRENT: 0.8653
S 1: 0.8579
S 2: 0.8545
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0870
R 1: 1.0781
CURRENT: 1.0708
S 1: 1.0645
S 2: 1.0598
EURJPY
R 2: 123.94
R 1: 123.30
CURRENT: 121.90
S 1: 120.71
S 2: 119.08
USDMXN
R 2: 13.345
R 1: 13.253
CURRENT: 13.16
S 1: 13.101
S 2: 12.939
|
|
Market Brief |
FX markets did not do much in Asia trading, as traders were still shaking off a very bumpy week. Asian regional indexes were unable to follow Wall Street’s late day rally, putting pressure on risk appetite. The AUDUSD rallied to 0.8725, as news of a large Australia-China coal deal provided markets with a temporary risk-on tone. However, the pair rapidly ran into offers around 0.8740 and spent the rest of the session limping back to 0.8645. The EURUSD followed a similar pattern, charging up to 1.3720 before vague EZ-official statements, especially regarding the current sovereign crisis, pushed the pair down to 1.3635. No official communiqué was issued by the G7 from Canada this morning, just reinforcing the fact this group lacks relevance. There were reports that the general consensus was that the ministers supported October’s statement on FX, would be monitoring markets and would provide a coordinated response if necessary. There were also rumors that EU officials have reassured other G7 member that Greece’s problems could be solved internally and no IMF bailout would be needed.
Markets seem to be still digesting Friday’s mixed US labor data. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 9.7% vs. 10.0% exp, while non-farm payrolls declined by -20k vs. 15k exp (December’s number was revised down to -150k from -85k). However, average weekly hours worked, a dependable indicator for new jobs, rose to 33.3 which gave equities a boost and temporarily lessened the pressure on the EUR. The lack of strong data out of the US will just amplify the credit worries in Europe, so we continue to play the USD from the long side.
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|