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Japanese & China Report Strong Economic Data


February 26, 2010 9:16 AM CET
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
NZD0.64
NOK0.54
CAD0.46
SEK0.43
AUD0.40
CHF0.34
EUR0.27
DKK0.28
GBP0.08
JPY-0.44

Global Indexes Current Level % Change
Nikkei 225 Index10,126.03+ 0.23
Hang Seng Index20.599.77+ 0.98
Shanghai Index3,051.94- 0.23
FTSE futures5,262.00- 1.23
DAX futures5,588.00+ 0.87
SMI Futures6,630.00+ 0.74
S&P future1,104.10+ 0.16
World Markets Current Level % Change
Gold1,111.48+ 0.46
Silver16.14+ 0.35
VIX20.10- 0.82
Crude wti78.35+ 0.23
USD Index80.66- 0.10
Todays Calender Estimates Previous Country / GMT
Retail sales, % m/m (y/y)--0.2SEK / 08.30
GDP - second estimate0.2 (-3.1)0.1 (-3.2)GBP / 09.30
HICP, % m/m-0.7 (1.0)1.0 "flashEUR / 10.00
KoF leading indicator1.801.77CHF / 10.30
GDP, %q/q saar (y/y)5.6 (0.1)5.7 (0.1)USD / 13.30
PCE %q/q saar--2.0 (1.1)USD / 13.30
Core PCE price index,1.4 (1.4)1.4 (1.4)USD / 13.30
Chicago PMI, index59.061.5USD / 14.45
U. Michigan consumer sentiment index73.973.7 pUSD / 14.45
Existing home sales, mn5.505.45USD / 15.00
NY Fed President Dudley (FOMC voter)----USD / 15.45
Fed Governor Tarullo (FOMC voter) and Chicago Fed----USD / 18.30
Currency Tech

EURUSD
R 2: 1.3800
R 1: 1.3575
CURRENT: 1.3564
S 1: 1.3444
S 2: 1.3425

USDJPY
R 2: 90.55
R 1: 90.05
CURRENT: 89.33
S 1: 88.55
S 2: 87.50

GBPUSD
R 2: 1.5615
R 1: 1.5580
CURRENT: 1.5253
S 1: 1.5080
S 2: 1.5000

AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9090
R 1: 0.8950
CURRENT: 0.8878
S 1: 0.8790
S 2: 0.8740

USDCAD
R 2: 1.0780
R 1: 1.0700
CURRENT: 1.0598
S 1: 1.0510
S 2: 1.0370
Market Brief

Markets still buzzing about a potential CNY revaluation
Japan Jan industrial production +2.5% m/m vs. 1.0% expected
Japan Jan core CPI -1.3% y/y, vs. -1.4% expected
Japan Jan retail sales 2.9% m/m & 2.6% y/y vs. -0.2% y/y exp
UK Feb GfK consumer confidence index up to -14 vs.-17
St Louis Fed Bullard states that should inflation expectations become unhinged, this would trump all other considerations


Market sentiment is still predominantly being driven by developments in Europe; specifically the potentially calamitous consequences if Moody’s downgrades Greece’s credit rating – thereby rendering Greek bonds ineligible as collateral with the ECB. Nevertheless, despite these concerns and the uninspiring European data this morning (Eurozone confidence -17 from -16 the month prior, economic confidence 95.9 against forecasts for 96.4), EURUSD has not managed to push to new lows beyond the 19 Feb 1.3444 level, which may be an indication that widespread short positioning in the pair is beginning to act as a headwind to the sell-off.

Today will be a critical day for major currencies with a number of major economic releases. Germany and the Eurozone CPI will be the key highlights of the morning, with the latter forecast to slow dramatically by -0.8% MoM, thereby keeping interest rate expectations for the Euro area well and truly anchored. We will also see the second estimate of UK Q4 GDP which currently stands at a meager 0.1% from the advance reading. Acknowledging the tendency for UK GDP to be revised higher from advance readings, markets are looking for an upward revision to 0.2%, but GBPUSD remains under heavy selling pressure for the time being, today pushing to new lows of 1.5225.

In the afternoon the US schedule includes US GDP (second reading) which is anticipated to remain at 5.7% QoQ annualized, the Chicago PMI (59.7 expected, 61.5 last), and U. Mich consumer confidence (73.9 expected, 73.9 last) and existing home sales (0.9% MoM expected, -16.7% last).


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