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US Claims Data Disappoints As Greece Concerns Linger
February 25, 2010 6:00 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 1.40 |  |  | SEK | -0.27 | | | CHF | -0.39 | | | EUR | -0.44 | | | DKK | -0.44 | | | NOK | -0.65 | | | NZD | -0.92 | | | CAD | -1.14 | | | GBP | -1.30 | | | AUD | -1.37 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'268.93 | - 1.38 | | DAX Index | 5'525.85 | - 1.60 | | SMI Index | 6'621.23 | - 1.00 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'087.51 | - 1.60 | | DJIA Index | 10'189.46 | - 1.78 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10'000.00 | - 0.98 | | Hang Seng Futures | 20'339.00 | - 0.59 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'095.45 | - 0.21 | | Silver | 15.87 | - 0.61 | | VIX | 21.86 | + 7.84 | | Crude wti | 77.30 | - 3.38 | | USD Index | 81.00 | + 0.28 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Fri 26 Feb | --- | --- | --- | | Germany: Preliminary HICP, % m/m (y/y) Feb | 0.5 (-0.6) | -0.6 (0.8) | EUR/PM | | Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Jan | 0.8 (3.9) | 0.2 (4.5) | SEK/08:30 | | GDP - second estimate, % q/q (y/y) Q4 | 0.2 (-3.1) | 0.1 (-3.2) | GBP/09:30 | | HICP, % m/m (y/y) Jan | -0.8 (1.0) | 0.3 (0.9) | EUR/10:00 | | KoF leading indicator Feb | 1.80 | 1.77 | CHF/10:30 | | GDP, %q/q saar (y/y) Q4-S | 5.7 | 5.7 | USD/13:30 | | PCE %q/q saar (y/y) Q4-S | 0.6 | 0.6 | USD/13:30 | | Chicago PMI, index Feb | 59.7 | 61.5 | USD/14:45 | | U. Michigan consumer sentiment index Feb-F | 73.9 | 73.7 | USD/14:55 | | Existing home sales, % (m/m) Jan | 0.9 | -16.7 | USD/15:00 |
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Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.3800
R 1: 1.3515
CURRENT: 1.3490
S 1: 1.3444
S 2: 1.3425
USDJPY
R 2: 90.55
R 1: 90.05
CURRENT: 88.90
S 1: 88.55
S 2: 87.50
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.5615
R 1: 1.5580
CURRENT: 1.5215
S 1: 1.5080
S 2: 1.5000
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9090
R 1: 0.8950
CURRENT: 0.8810
S 1: 0.8790
S 2: 0.8740
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0780
R 1: 1.0700
CURRENT: 1.0670
S 1: 1.0510
S 2: 1.0370
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Market Brief |
The US labour market appears to be going from bad to worse, with yet another week of dreadful claims figures and upward revisions to the data published last week. Initial claims hit 496k compared to the consensus estimate of 460k, and continuing claims soared to 4617k against forecasts for 4570k; underlining the fact that next week’s non-farm payrolls is are unlikely to contain any upside surprises. The effect on the USD was limited however, helped predominantly by the better than expected durable goods orders released at the same time as the claims figures – in January, orders rose 3.0% MoM (compared to 1.5% estimates), and there were significant upward revisions the month prior (from 0.3% to 1.9%).
Market sentiment is still predominantly being driven by developments in Europe; specifically the potentially calamitous consequences if Moody’s downgrades Greece’s credit rating – thereby rendering Greek bonds ineligible as collateral with the ECB. Nevertheless, despite these concerns and the uninspiring European data this morning (Eurozone confidence -17 from -16 the month prior, economic confidence 95.9 against forecasts for 96.4), EURUSD has not managed to push to new lows beyond the 19 Feb 1.3444 level, which may be an indication that widespread short positioning in the pair is beginning to act as a headwind to the sell-off.
Tomorrow will be a critical day for major currencies with a number of major economic releases. Germany and the Eurozone CPI will be the key highlights of the morning, with the latter forecast to slow dramatically by -0.8% MoM, thereby keeping interest rate expectations for the Euro area well and truly anchored. We will also see the second estimate of UK Q4 GDP which currently stands at a meager 0.1% from the advance reading. Acknowledging the tendency for UK GDP to be revised higher from advance readings, markets are looking for an upward revision to 0.2%, but GBPUSD remains under heavy selling pressure for the time being, today pushing to new lows of 1.5225.
In the afternoon the US schedule includes US GDP (second reading) which is anticipated to remain at 5.7% QoQ annualized, the Chicago PMI (59.7 expected, 61.5 last), and U. Mich consumer confidence (73.9 expected, 73.9 last) and existing home sales (0.9% MoM expected, -16.7% last).
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Greek Concerns Rattle Markets
February 25, 2010 10:24 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.75 | | | CAD | -0.08 | | | CHF | -0.54 | | | GBP | -0.56 | | | SEK | -0.59 | | | AUD | -0.60 | | | DKK | -0.60 | | | EUR | -0.61 | | | NZD | -0.63 | | | NOK | -0.65 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10,101.96 | - 0.94 | | Hang Seng Index | 20,324.98 | - 0.69 | | Shanghai Index | 3,060.62 | + 1.27 | | FTSE futures | 5,330.00 | + 0.80 | | DAX futures | 5,581.50 | - 0.62 | | SMI Futures | 6,603.00 | - 0.39 | | S&P future | 1,096.80 | - 0.61 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1,089.63 | - 0.74 | | Silver | 15.73 | - 1.48 | | VIX | 20.27 | - 5.14 | | Crude wti | 79.50 | - 0.62 | | USD Index | 81.00 | + 0.27 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Employment level, % y/y | -- | 0.2 | CHF / 08.15 | | Germany: Unemployment change | 18 (8.2) | 6 (8.2) | EUR / 08.55 | | unemployment rate, % | -- | 3.3 | NOK / 09.00 | | M3, % y/y | 0.0 | -0.2 (-0.1 | EUR / 09.00 | | Private sector loans, % y/y | -- | 0.0 | EUR / 09.00 | | Business investment, % q/q (y/y) | 0.2 (-18.4 | -0.6 (-19. | GBP / 09.30 | | Consumer confidence, index | -16 | -17 'flash | EUR / 10.00 | | Industrial confidence, index | -13 | -14 | EUR / 10.00 | | CBI distributive trades survey, | -- | -8 | USD / 13.30 | | Durable goods orders, %m/m (y/y) | 1.5 (7.0) | 1.0 (-2.5) | USD / 13.30 | | Core capital goods orders, | -- | 2.2 (-1.0) | USD / 13.30 | | Initial jobless claims, thous | -- | 473 (468) | USD / 13.30 | | Bernanke delivers semi-annual Monetary Policy Repo | -- | -- | USD / 14.00 | | BoE MPC member David Miles speaks | -- | -- | GBP / 18.00 | | Norges Bank Governor Svein Gjedrem gives a speech | -- | -- | NOK / 18.00 | | St. Louis Fed President Bullard (FOMC voter) speak | -- | -- | USD / 18.15 | | Tokyo CPI, % y/y | -2.0 | -2.1 | JPY / 23.30 | | Tokyo CPI ex. Perishables, | -2.0 | -2.0 | JPY / 23.30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9070
R 1: 0.8955
CURRENT: 0.8897
S 1: 0.8858
S 2: 0.8785
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0630
R 1: 1.0595
CURRENT: 1.0565
S 1: 1.0510
S 2: 1.0370
EURJPY
R 2: 124.55
R 1: 122.60
CURRENT: 120.45
S 1: 119.05
S 2: 117.30
USDMXN
R 2: 13.055
R 1: 12.940
CURRENT: 12.854
S 1: 12.745
S 2: 12.685
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Market Brief |
The late Asian session was one massive exit from risk correlated trades which then pushed USD and JPY significantly higher. Early in the session, risk appetite was solid with US equity markets higher on the back of Bernanke’s testimony. Bernanke stressed that the Fed would probability keep the federal funds rate "exceptionally low for an extended period.” In addition, Bernanke was clearly intent on signaling that the recent hike in the discount rate does not automatically signal an adjustment to federal funds rate. The AUD was well supported in this early part of the session. The AUD was gaining support on three fronts, overall rally in risk, hawkish comment from a well respected RBA watcher and strong domestic economic data (CAPEX data showed Investments were up strongly in Q1 5.5% q/q vs 1.5% exp). But a rash of warnings from Moody’s and S&P, as well as a UK telegraph piece suggesting the prospect of Germany rescuing Greece has declined slightly after recent comments. Although there will be a slew of interesting data today, including the important US durable Goods, the markets will clearly be driven by unfolding events from the EU. We still believe, in this environment, the USD and JPY will be to key beneficiaries of EU sovereign credit concerns.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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