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EURUSD Slumps As Greece’s Top 4 Banks Downgraded


February 23, 2010 5:33 PM CET
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
JPY1.01
GBP-0.18
EUR-0.39
NOK-0.41
CHF-0.42
DKK-0.44
SEK-0.58
AUD-0.59
NZD-0.83
CAD-0.92

Global Indexes Current Level % Change
FTSE 100 Index5'314.83- 0.70
DAX Index5'606.36- 1.44
SMI Index6'656.36- 0.46
S&P 500 Index1'096.72- 1.02
DJIA Index10'302.67- 0.78
Nikkei 225 Futures10'310.00- 0.58
Hang Seng Futures20'600.00+ 1.22
World Markets Current Level % Change
Gold1'103.80- 0.94
Silver15.83- 2.54
VIX21.15+ 6.07
Crude wti78.99- 1.64
USD Index80.67+ 0.20
Todays Calender Estimates Previous Country / GMT
Wed 24 Feb---------
Germany: GDP, % q/q Q40.00.0EUR/07:00
Industrial orders, % m/m Dec-1.02.7REUR/10:00
Bernanke delivers Monetary Policy Report------USD/15:00
Currency Tech

EURUSD
R 2: 1.3800
R 1: 1.3700
CURRENT: 1.3540
S 1: 1.3530
S 2: 1.3425

USDJPY
R 2: 92.75
R 1: 92.15
CURRENT: 90.15
S 1: 89.85
S 2: 89.70

GBPUSD
R 2: 1.5690
R 1: 1.5615
CURRENT: 1.5450
S 1: 1.5350
S 2: 1.5275

AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9150
R 1: 0.9093
CURRENT: 0.8950
S 1: 0.8900
S 2: 0.8850

USDCAD
R 2: 1.0575
R 1: 1.0530
CURRENT: 1.0515
S 1: 1.0355
S 2: 1.0300
Market Brief

Risk assets have experienced setbacks today as sentiment took further knocks in both the European and US sessions. EURUSD’s gains in Asia capitulated shortly after the release of the German IFO survey results; with both the business climate (95.2 vs. 96.1 expected) and current assessment (89.8 vs. 91.9) undershooting forecasts. The expectations component (100.9 vs. 100.5) did manage to come in just above consensus, but nevertheless, the releases marked the turning point for EURUSD which sold off quickly from 1.3690 levels, and accelerated on the news that Greece’s top 4 banks have had their credit ratings downgraded.

The bearish price action was echoed in GBPUSD after dovish comments from BoE Governor King which highlighted that the UK economy is still fragile and that risks to the outlook remain lodged to the downside. Despite trying to reassure markets that the weak GBP was beneficial for the recovery, King did admit that thus far, he had not seen evidence of a pick-up in net trade. It also appears that the decision not to extend QE at the recent MPC meeting was a much closer call than markets had believed, sending GBPUSD plunging from its intraday highs of 1.5576 to lows of 1.5394.

In the afternoon, the main data event was the release of US consumer confidence; posting a dreadful 46.0 print in February compared to consensus expectations of 55.0. Understandably, the JPY has been one of the main beneficiaries of the drop in risk appetite, up around 1% against the USD today at 90.20. Markets will now look ahead to Bernanke’s address to the House committee tomorrow (delivering his semi-annual Monetary Policy Report) for a cue on the next move in the USD from here. Only other releases scheduled for the majors will be the final German Q4 GDP revision, Eurozone industrial orders, and US new home sales.


Rumors of SNB Intervention


February 23, 2010 8:56 AM CET
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
SEK0.65
GBP0.60
NOK0.53
EUR0.50
DKK0.49
AUD0.43
NZD0.40
CHF0.37
JPY0.32
CAD0.17
Global Indexes Current Level % Change
Nikkei 225 Index10.352.10- 0.46
Hang Seng Index20,591.47+ 1.05
Shanghai Index2,982.58- 0.69
FTSE futures5,329.50- 0.28
DAX futures5,706.50+ 0.31
SMI Futures6,651.00+ 0.37
S&P future1,109.20+ 0.15
World Markets Current Level % Change
Gold1,117.71+ 0.31
Silver16.37+ 0.74
VIX19.94- 0.39
Crude wti80.25- 0.07
USD Index80.31- 0.24
Todays Calender Estimates Previous Country / GMT
Germany: IFO business climate, index96.195.8EUR / 09.00
IFO current assessment, index91.891.2EUR / 09.00
Germany: IFO business expectations, index100.6100.6EUR / 09.00
GDP, % y/y (saar) Q42.30.9ZAR / 09.30
BBA mortgage approvals, k Jan--45.9GBP / 09.30
S&P/Case-Shiller natl HPI, %q/q (y/y) Q4--3.1 (-8.9)USD / 14.00
Consumer confidence, index55.055.9USD / 15.00
Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9095
R 1: 0.9025
CURRENT: 0.9044
S 1: 0.8975
S 2: 0.8880

USDCAD
R 2: 1.0530
R 1: 1.0440
CURRENT: 1.0399
S 1: 1.0370
S 2: 1.0303

EURJPY
R 2: 126.45
R 1: 125.25
CURRENT: 124.95
S 1: 123.55
S 2: 122.70

USDMXN
R 2: 12.927
R 1: 12.825
CURRENT: 12.798
S 1: 12.745
S 2: 12.685
Market Brief

The Asian trading session was relatively quiet with no major data releases and not much on the docket today. USDCHF trended downward in the early part of the session to 1.0733 before jumping strongly in the afternoon on presumed SNB intervention in EURCHF (which surged to 1.4684). The minutes from the BoJ's Jan meeting didnt produce any policy adjustments and not much else to mention. USDJPY will likely be driven by the speed & timing of US monetary policy and risk appitie. We still expect the pair to be around 95 in 3 month time. Todays economic schedule sees the release of the German IFO survey which is expected to show a slight improvement across the business climate, current assessment and business expectations components; however the main focus will be on US data. Consumer confidence is expected to post a 55.0 print after last month’s 55.9 reading, while the Richmond Fed manufacturing index is expected to emerge from negative territory with consensus looking for +1 (previous: -2).


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