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Abysmal Retail Sales Data Pressures The Pound
February 19, 2010 5:47 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
 | CAD | -0.10 | | | CHF | -0.40 | | | AUD | -0.40 | | | DKK | -0.49 | | | EUR | -0.53 | | | NOK | -0.77 | | | JPY | -0.86 | | | SEK | -0.89 | | | NZD | -1.08 | | | GBP | -1.15 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'357.00 | + 0.60 | | DAX Index | 5'724.13 | + 0.77 | | SMI Index | 6'713.72 | + 1.15 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'109.57 | + 0.25 | | DJIA Index | 10'410.97 | + 0.17 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10'220.00 | - 1.06 | | Hang Seng Futures | 19'852.00 | - 2.15 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'118.80 | + 0.91 | | Silver | 16.16 | + 1.94 | | VIX | 20.41 | - 1.07 | | Crude wti | 79.44 | + 0.48 | | USD Index | 81.00 | + 0.08 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No further releases | --- | --- | --- |
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Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.3800
R 1: 1.3650
CURRENT: 1.3520
S 1: 1.3425
S 2: 1.3300
USDJPY
R 2: 93.55
R 1: 92.50
CURRENT: 92.05
S 1: 90.55
S 2: 89.70
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.5750
R 1: 1.5690
CURRENT: 1.5430
S 1: 1.5350
S 2: 1.5275
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9093
R 1: 0.9045
CURRENT: 0.8945
S 1: 0.8880
S 2: 0.8850
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0575
R 1: 1.0530
CURRENT: 1.0445
S 1: 1.0400
S 2: 1.0355
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Market Brief |
Currency markets have been in a state of choppy consolidation today after the overnight drama of the Fed discount rate hike. In the morning session, Eurozone PMI data highlighted continued improvement in February, with a much stronger than expected manufacturing component (54.1 vs. 52.7 forecast) compensating for the slightly lower than expected – but nonetheless firm – growth in the services sector (52.0 vs. 52.5 forecast). In contrast, the UK retail sales for January were dreadful; the cold weather experienced in the past month had been expected to subdue sales (hence the very low -0.5% MoM forecast), but the actual figure undershot even the most pessimistic estimates at -1.2% MoM. The downward pressure on GBPUSD has seen the pair touch lows of 1.5349, but the short positioning has started to experience some signs of exhaustion over the course of the day and the pair has gradually crept higher to 1.5430 levels currently.
In the afternoon session, the main release has been US CPI which came out at a slightly lower than expected 0.2% MoM (0.3% expected), sending EURUSD very briefly higher, but subsequent price action has been volatile around the 1.3500 handle. At the same time we also saw the release of Canadian retail sales which rose 0.4% MoM but was slightly below the 0.5% anticipated.
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Fed Raises Discount Rate by 25bp
February 19, 2010 10:23 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| CAD | -0.53 | | | JPY | -0.62 | | | DKK | -0.80 | | | EUR | -0.88 | | | CHF | -0.89 | | | AUD | -0.97 | | | NOK | -1.07 | | | NZD | -1.25 | | | SEK | -1.28 | | | GBP | -1.30 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10,123.58 | - 2.05 | | Hang Seng Index | 19,940.88 | - 2.35 | | Shanghai Index | 3,018.13 | 0.00 | | FTSE futures | 5,304.50 | + 0.99 | | DAX futures | 5,641.00 | - 0.82 | | SMI Futures | 6,538.00 | - 0.68 | | S&P future | 1,093.00 | - 1.12 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1,102.40 | - 0.56 | | Silver | 15.83 | - 0.15 | | VIX | 20.63 | - 5.01 | | Crude wti | 77.92 | - 1.44 | | USD Index | 81.93 | + 0.45 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Germany: PPI, % m/m (y/y) | -- | -0.1,-5.2 | EUR / 07.00 | | Current account, € bn (sa) | -- | 0.1 | EUR / 09.00 | | IRetail sales, % m/m (y/y) | -- | 0.3 (2.1) | GBP / 09.30 | | Consumer price index, % m/m (y/y) | 0.3 | 0.1 (2.7) | USD / 13.30 | | Core CPI, % m/m (y/y) | 0.2 | 0.1 (1.8) | USD / 13.30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9093
R 1: 0.9037
CURRENT: 0.8900
S 1: 0.8862
S 2: 0.8786
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0579
R 1: 1.0533
CURRENT: 1.0498
S 1: 1.0397
S 2: 1.0356
EURJPY
R 2: 125.08
R 1: 124.84
CURRENT: 123.84
S 1: 122.76
S 2: 122.26
USDMXN
R 2: 13.057
R 1: 12.974
CURRENT: 12.91
S 1: 12.808
S 2: 12.684
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Market Brief |
The dollar gained across the board late in the NY session, as the Federal Reserve unexpectedly raised the discount rate by 25bp. The EURUSD dropped to a 9 month low. The GBPUSD fell to 1.5402 and USDJPY rose to 92.00 before retracing slightly. While the Fed says the hike doesn’t signal any shift in economic or policy outlook, it would be odd not to see the move as such. We still expect the first rate hike late this Summer and a 0.75% fed funds rate at year’s end. The market was clearly caught off guard by the hike, although Bernanke’s written testimony on February 10th stated the Fed might raise rate “before long”. Clearly, the move signals that banks are more stable and have less need of emergency funds. We continue to expect the USD to gain broadly, as the steady improvement in the US economic condition plus Eurozone sovereign credit worries will weigh on risk correlated trades.
The news out of Europe continues to slow as rumour swirling around Italy failed to gain traction. The Greek Prime Minister Papandrou once again stated that Greece was not looking for any financial assistance from other EU members, but only needs political support, given the tough road ahead.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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