|
|
USD Resurgence Reverses Yesterday’s Currency Moves
February 17, 2010 6:23 PM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
 | CAD | -0.19 | | | AUD | -0.19 | | | NZD | -0.31 | | | SEK | -0.31 | | | GBP | -0.42 | | | NOK | -0.53 | | | JPY | -0.62 | | | CHF | -0.95 | | | EUR | -0.95 | | | DKK | -0.97 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| FTSE 100 Index | 5'276.64 | + 0.62 | | DAX Index | 5'648.34 | + 1.01 | | SMI Index | 6'567.60 | + 1.08 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'097.00 | + 0.19 | | DJIA Index | 10'293.52 | + 0.24 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10'320.00 | + 0.29 | | Shanghai Futures | 20'535.00 | + 1.28 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 1'115.10 | - 0.39 | | Silver | 15.97 | - 1.00 | | VIX | 22.29 | + 0.18 | | Crude wti | 76.76 | - 0.32 | | USD Index | 80.36 | + 0.89 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| Minutes of January 26-27 FOMC meeting released | --- | --- | USD/19:00 | | Thu 18 Feb | --- | --- | --- | | BoJ interest rate announcement, % Feb | 0.10 | 0.10 | JPY/AM | | CPI, % m/m Jan | -0.3 | 0.2 | SEK/08:30 | | Unemployment rate, % Jan | 9.3 | 8.6 | SEK/08:30 | | GDP, % q/q Q4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | NOK/09:00 | | M4 money supply, % m/m (y/y) Jan | 0.5 (4.6) | -1.1 (6.4) | GBP/09:30 | | "Flash" Consumer confidence, index Feb | -16 | -16 | EUR/10:00 | | CPI, % m/m (y/y) Jan | 0.3 (1.8) | -0.3 (1.3) | CAD/12:00 | | PPI, % m/m (y/y) Jan | 0.8 (4.4) | 0.2 (4.4) | USD/13:30 | | Philadelphia Fed mfg index Feb | 17.0 | 15.2 | USD/15:00 | | Leading indicators index, % m/m Jan | 0.5 | 1.1 | USD/15:00 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.3900
R 1: 1.3800
CURRENT: 1.3730
S 1: 1.3580
S 2: 1.3530
USDJPY
R 2: 91.85
R 1: 91.30
CURRENT: 90.75
S 1: 89.30
S 2: 88.55
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.5900
R 1: 1.5833
CURRENT: 1.5705
S 1: 1.5630
S 2: 1.5565
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9100
R 1: 0.9045
CURRENT: 0.9000
S 1: 0.8877
S 2: 0.8785
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0575
R 1: 1.0497
CURRENT: 1.0450
S 1: 1.0410
S 2: 1.0355
|
|
Market Brief |
Despite another session of strong equity market gains and decent US data releases, the FX markets have had an altogether more confusing and volatile day as the USD whipsawed back yesterday’s losses and is now higher against most major currencies. EURUSD has collapsed back below 1.3650 levels after US industrial production figures came out better than expected at 0.9% MoM against forecasts for 0.7% growth, and there were also revisions higher to the prior month’s data.
The morning focus was on the release of the BoE minutes which showed that the decision not to increase the asset purchase target this month was unanimous amongst MPC members, but that the arguments behind this outcome had been finely balanced. One of the arguments in favour of no further increase was the prospect of CPI sharply above target in the near term, but one of the listed motivations for expanding the target was that CPI was expected to be below target for much of the next three years, leaving markets with a slight conundrum as to where the currency should go from here. GBPUSD was unchanged around 1.5750 in the immediate aftermath (albeit with a little volatility over the release), and indeed enjoyed a subsequent short-squeeze up to 1.5810 before the afternoon collapse along with EURUSD down to 1.5682 lows.
Tonight, markets await the latest FOMC minutes which will be keenly eyed for any indication that the Fed is thinking about the timing of tightening, before a busy day of economic releases tomorrow. First up will be the BoJ rate announcement (expect no change to interest rates), then in European session the significant Eurozone consumer confidence (-16 expected, -16 prior). There is also Sweden CPI, Norway GDP, Canadian CPI and US PPI.
|
|
BoE Minutes Will Keep GBP Traders Busy
February 17, 2010 9:48 AM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.01 |  | | SEK | -0.05 | | | GBP | -0.06 | | | DKK | -0.07 | | | NOK | -0.08 | | | EUR | -0.09 | | | AUD | -0.13 | | | CHF | -0.15 | | | CAD | -0.18 | | | NZD | -0.20 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 10,306.83 | + 2.71 | | Hang Seng Index | 20,543.83 | + 1.35 | | Shanghai Index | 3,018.13 | + 1.09 | | FTSE futures | 5,216.00 | + 1.52 | | DAX futures | 5,592.12 | + 1.47 | | SMI Futures | 6,474.00 | + 0.57 | | S&P future | 1,093.30 | + 0.01 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 1.117.30 | - 0.19 | | Silver | 16.21 | + 0.43 | | VIX | 22.25 | - 2.11 | | Crude wti | 77.08 | + 0.09 | | USD Index | 79.77 | + 0.15 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| BoE MPC minutes, vote Feb | -- | 7-2 | GBP / 09.30 | | Claimant count unemployment, change k | -10K | -15.2 | GBP / 09.30 | | ILO unemployment rate, % | 7.8 | 7.8 | GBP / 09.30 | | Construction output, % m/m (y/y) | -- | -0.8 (-7.6 | EUR / 10.00 | | Trade balance, € bn (sa) | 3.9 | 3.9B | EUR / 10.00 | | Housing starts, thous saar | 580 | 557 | USD / 13.30 | | Import prices, % m/m (y/y) | -- | 0.0 (8.6) | USD / 13.30 | | Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Jan | 0.6 (0.8) | 0.6 (-2.0) | USD / 14.15 | | Capacity utilization, % | 72.5 | 72.0 | USD / 14.15 | | Minutes of January 26-27 FOMC meeting released | -- | -- | USD / 19.00 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9045
R 1: 0.9025
CURRENT: 0.9005
S 1: 0.8877
S 2: 0.8785
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0575
R 1: 1.0497
CURRENT: 1.0454
S 1: 1.0410
S 2: 1.0355
EURJPY
R 2: 125.05
R 1: 124.47
CURRENT: 124.01
S 1: 122.25
S 2: 121.40
USDMXN
R 2: 13.057
R 1: 12.975
CURRENT: 12.867
S 1: 12.835
S 2: 12.800
|
|
Market Brief |
Markets were stable in the Asian session, as the EUR was able to claw back lost ground as speculative bets on the collapse of the single currency were pulled back. The issue of Greece has now been placed on the side until mid March, when the EU and IMF will re-evaluate the situation. However, Eurogroup Chairman Juncker said the Greece’s rapid response to the crisis helped contain downside. When asked about possible instruments, which could be used in case of a bailout, he stated "we do not think it would be wise to have a public discussion of such instruments". While the problem is just dormant, CDS spread and bond yields have improved, giving the EU some room to manoeuvre. The AUDUSD rise was capped at 0.9028 despite a Terry McCrann’s Courier Mail bullish article, which had traders believing that the RBA will hike another 25 bps in March. However, currently the futures market remains unconvinced and only suggests a 40% chance of a March hike (we are still in the hike camp).
The highlight of the European session will be the BoE February 4th MPC meeting minutes. Given the data from the Inflation Report, showing lower inflation and growth, it will be interesting to see why more members voted for a pause in QE. Markets are expecting vote of 6 for no change and 3 members possible voting for an extension of QE As a result, bearish sentiment may remain around GBP in the near term.
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|