|
|
US Growth Stuns Markets, Boosts The Dollar
January 29, 2010 5:26 PM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | SEK | 0.16 |  | | | CAD | 0.05 | |  | NOK | -0.06 | | | NZD | -0.07 | | | CHF | -0.16 | | | EUR | -0.48 | | | DKK | -0.49 | | | AUD | -0.59 | | | GBP | -0.61 | | | JPY | -1.00 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 10,198.04 | - 2.07 | | Hang Seng Index | 20,121.99 | - 1.15 | | Shanghai Index | 2,989.29 | - 0.16 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,222.98 | + 1.50 | | DAX Index | 5,643.71 | + 1.86 | | S&P 500 Index | 10,214.47 | + 0.92 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 2,193.79 | + 0.67 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 1,078.65 | - 0.77 | | Silver | 16.14 | - 0.63 | | VIX | 22.18 | - 6.53 | | Crude wti | 74.32 | + 0.92 | | USD Index | 79.25 | + 0.43 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| No Additional Releases | -- | -- | -- |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9145
R 1: 0.9090
CURRENT: 0.8905
S 1: 0.8900
S 2: 0.8825
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0747
R 1: 1.0697
CURRENT: 1.0648
S 1: 1.0535
S 2: 1.0465
EURJPY
R 2: 128.35
R 1: 127.40
CURRENT: 126.15
S 1: 124.75
S 2: 124.00
USDMXN
R 2: 13.145
R 1: 13.105
CURRENT: 12.9565
S 1: 12.800
S 2: 12.795
|
|
Market Brief |
Equity indices are higher and risk appetite buoyant after the advance reading of US Q4 GDP smashed estimates with a 5.70% QoQ seasonally adjusted annualized rate of growth, much larger than the 4.60% expected and the 2.20% reading from Q3. Adding to the encouraging growth figures, the Chicago PMI report outstripped forecasts with a 61.5 print (consensus: 57.4), and U.Mich Consumer Sentiment was also better than expected at 74.4 (consensus: 73.0). USDJPY is nearly a percent higher on the day having touched highs of 90.92 as risk appetite reduced demand for JPY; but part of this JPY weakness is also partly due to this morning’s weak Japanese CPI. Canadian GDP also impressed with a 0.4% MoM expansion in November, which caused USDCAD to drop from 1.0670 to 1.0635 levels; but any further CAD appreciation faced a considerable headwind of USD buying due to the US GDP surprise.
Earlier in the day, Norwegian retail sales convincingly beat expectations at 1.1% MoM (0.7% expected, -1.1% prior), which helped push EURNOK down below 8.1900, but an aggressive bout of profit taking pared the NOK gains almost back to pre-release levels around 8.2325. Nevertheless, as risk appetite has improved, NOK has regained the upper hand to touch new lows at 8.1865. Meanwhile Eurozone Unemployment held steady at 10.0% in December, which was slightly better than the rise to 10.1% forecast, but the good news was neutralized somewhat by a tepid CPI reading at 1.0% YoY (1.2% expected). Most of the Greece-related rhetoric from policymakers has tended towards the optimistic side, and indeed there were reports that Greece had agreed to deeper spending cuts and faster tax hikes to ameliorate their finances; even so, EURUSD has struggled in the face of USD buying this afternoon, dropping to fresh lows of 1.3888 as the market looks to target 1.3800 key support.
|
|
Japan Deflationary Spiral Looms
January 29, 2010 9:08 AM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CHF | 0.07 | | | | CAD | 0.03 | | | | NZD | 0.03 | | | | SEK | 0.03 | | | | GBP | 0.01 | | | EUR | -0.05 | | | DKK | -0.05 | | | NOK | -0.06 | | | AUD | -0.27 | | | JPY | -0.53 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 10'198.04 | - 2.08 | | Hang Seng Index | 20'090.79 | - 1.30 | | Shanghai Index | 2'989.29 | - 0.16 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5'145.74 | - 1.37 | | DAX Index | 5'540.33 | - 1.82 | | SMI Index | 6'442.41 | - 0.47 | | S&P future | 1'080.10 | + 0.08 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 1'086.07 | - 0.09 | | Silver | 16.24 | - 0.06 | | VIX | 23.73 | + 2.55 | | Crude wti | 73.58 | - 0.08 | | USD Index | 79.06 | + 0.20 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| Retail sales, m/m Dec | 0.4 | -1.2 | NOK/09:00 | | M3, % y/y Dec | -0.5 | -0.2 | EUR/09:00 | | Unemployment rate, % Dec | 10.1 | 10.0 | EUR/10:00 | | "Flash" HICP, % y/y Jan | 1.2 | 0.9 | EUR/10:00 | | KoF leading indicator Jan | 1.70 | 1.68 | CHF/10:30 | | GDP, %m/m Nov | 0.2 | 0.2 | CAD/13:30 | | GDP, % q/q saar (y/y) Q4 adv | 4.6 | 2.2 | USD/13:30 | | Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Jan | 57.4 | 58.7 | USD/14:45 | | U/M consumer sentiment index Jan | 73.0 | 72.8 | USD/14:55 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9145
R 1: 0.9090
CURRENT: 0.8915
S 1: 0.8910
S 2: 0.8900
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0747
R 1: 1.0697
CURRENT: 1.0660
S 1: 1.0535
S 2: 1.0465
EURJPY
R 2: 128.35
R 1: 127.40
CURRENT: 125.75
S 1: 124.75
S 2: 124.00
USDMXN
R 2: 13.145
R 1: 13.105
CURRENT: 13.048
S 1: 12.800
S 2: 12.795
|
|
Market Brief |
Asian stocks are lower today, weighed by tech stocks and lingering fears about the state of Greece and Portugal’s economic problems. The USD has strengthened on these fears, and also gleaned some support from the reassurance than Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke was confirmed for a second term – eliminating the uncertainty of an interim period at Fed with only temporary leadership.
Overnight, Japan’s core CPI fell 1.3% YoY in December; smaller than the drop in November – but the narrowest measure of inflation (so-called core-core CPI which strips out the volatile food and energy components) had its biggest drop since records began in 1970. This is likely to put further pressure on policymakers to do more to try and support the economy and prevent another slump ahead of summer elections. The reading may also threaten the credibility of the BoJ who stated in their policy meeting on Tuesday that deflation was likely to be milder than anticipated; and will strengthen their conviction in possible FX intervention should current JPY strength persist. USDJPY has climbed back above 90.00 and is now trading around the highs at 90.25.
GBPUSD is still trading choppily after yesterday’s negative statement from ratings agency S&P; who have stopped classifying the UK among the most stable, low-risk banking systems. So far, GBPUSD has found a near-term base at 1.6111, but with market sentiment increasingly swayed by the prospect of ratings downgrades, we feel that GBP will be vulnerable along with the EUR.
Today, Norway Retail Sales, Eurozone Unemployment and CPI, plus Swiss KoF leading indicators will dominate the focus in the morning session – but the major events for FX markets will come this afternoon. US advance Q4 GDP is expected to show the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.6% QoQ, much larger than the 2.2% growth seen in Q3. Chicago PMI is forecast to moderate to 57.4 from last month’s 58.7 reading (though if realized, it would still be a strong number in absolute terms), and U.Mich Consumer Confidence is due to tick slightly higher to 73.0. Also expected will be Canadian GDP.
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|