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EURUSD Heavy As Greek Bonds Tumble
January 27, 2010 5:15 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.33 |  | | | GBP | 0.32 | |  | NZD | -0.39 | | | CAD | -0.46 | | | EUR | -0.48 | | | DKK | -0.48 | | | CHF | -0.48 | | | AUD | -0.57 | | | NOK | -0.58 | | | SEK | -0.70 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'211.25 | - 1.24 | | DAX Index | 5'627.95 | - 0.72 | | SMI Index | 6'469.20 | - 0.23 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'088.14 | - 0.37 | | DJIA Index | 10'145.70 | - 0.48 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10'250.00 | - 0.19 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'092.83 | - 0.43 | | Silver | 16.57 | - 1.03 | | VIX | 25.55 | + 4.07 | | Crude wti | 74.11 | - 0.80 | | USD Index | 78.55 | + 0.06 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| FOMC rate decision announced, % Jan | 0.25 | 0.25 | USD/19:15 | | RBNZ rate decision announced, % Jan | 2.50 | 2.50 | NZD/20:00 | | Thu 28 Jan | --- | --- | --- | | Retail sales, % m/m Dec | -0.2 | -0.6 | SEK/08:30 | | Unemployment rate, % Dec | 8.0 | 8.0 | SEK/08:30 | | Germany: Unemployment rate, % Jan | 8.2 | 8.1 | EUR/08:55 | | Unemployment rate, % Jan | 2.7 | 2.7 | NOK/09:00 | | Consumer confidence, index Jan | -15 | -16 | EUR/10:00 | | Industrial confidence, index Jan | -15 | -16 | EUR/10:00 | | Durable goods orders, % m/m Dec | 2.0 | 0.2 | USD/13:30 | | Initial jobless claims, thous 23-Jan | 450 | 482 | USD/13:30 | | Continuing claims, thous 16-Jan | 4600 | 4599 | USD/13:30 |
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Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.4313
R 1: 1.4225
CURRENT: 1.4035
S 1: 1.4000
S 2: 1.3900
USDJPY
R 2: 91.90
R 1: 90.75
CURRENT: 89.35
S 1: 89.00
S 2: 88.00
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.6450
R 1: 1.6300
CURRENT: 1.6180
S 1: 1.6090
S 2: 1.6060
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9148
R 1: 0.9090
CURRENT: 0.8955
S 1: 0.8940
S 2: 0.8905
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0800
R 1: 1.0700
CURRENT: 1.0660
S 1: 1.0530
S 2: 1.0465
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Market Brief |
Most currencies have traded sideways against the USD, today with very few economic releases during the day, and many traders on the sidelines ahead of Obama’s State of the Union address, and this evening’s FOMC rate decision.
EURUSD initially found support at the start of the European open, but has subsequently given back its gains after Greek bonds tumbled; sending the yield on the Greek benchmark 10 year government bond to its highest level since 1999. The collapse in bonds was sparked by a report published today where it was revealed that EU finance ministers “agreed that [Greece] had not taken effective action to correct the deficit by the 2010 deadline agreed at the beginning of 2009”. In turn, sovereign CDS once again widened; with Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Italy the most acutely affected. Nevertheless, the trading range has been relatively constrained between 1.4022-1.4096 as markets await the FOMC rate decision.
One of the outperformers on the session has been GBPUSD which has bounced strongly from its lows after the GDP disappointment; finding good support from the 1 month uptrend (around 1.6120 currently) amid rumors of models taking profit on GBP shorts. US New Home Sales data was weaker than expected at 0.342m units vs. consensus looking for 0.370m; with the softness in the figures reflecting the fading impact of the US homebuyers tax credit.
Looking ahead past the FOMC, tonight will also bring the latest rate decision from the RBNZ; where markets are expecting no change to interest rates (currently at 2.50%). Weaker than expected CPI from New Zealand in the past week has likely neutralized any motivation for the RBNZ to shift to a more hawkish stance this meeting, but we remain vigilant of any indication that this shift may be imminent.
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Australian CPI Increase Heightens Chance RBA Will Hike Next Week
January 27, 2010 8:48 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.43 | | | | GBP | 0.02 | | | EUR | -0.35 | | | DKK | -0.37 | | | CHF | -0.41 | | | CAD | -0.42 | | | AUD | -0.49 | | | NOK | -0.52 | | | SEK | -0.58 | | | NZD | -0.72 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10'252.08 | - 0.71 | | Hang Seng Index | 19'981.31 | - 0.64 | | Shanghai Index | 2'986.61 | - 1.09 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5'276.85 | + 0.31 | | DAX Index | 5'668.93 | + 0.67 | | SMI Index | 6'484.23 | + 0.51 | | S&P future | 1'085.30 | - 0.17 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'094.47 | - 0.28 | | Silver | 16.71 | - 0.21 | | VIX | 24.55 | - 3.38 | | Crude wti | 74.60 | - 0.15 | | USD Index | 78.57 | + 0.08 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Germany: Preliminary HICP, % m/m (y/y) Jan | -0.4 (1.0) | 0.9 (0.8) | EUR/AM | | CBI distributive trades, total sales, net bal Jan | --- | 13 | GBP/11:00 | | New home sales, thous Dec | 370 | 355 | USD/15:00 | | FOMC rate decision announced Jan | 0.25 | 0.25 | USD/19:15 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9148
R 1: 0.9090
CURRENT: 0.8980
S 1: 0.8940
S 2: 0.8905
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0800
R 1: 1.0700
CURRENT: 1.0655
S 1: 1.0530
S 2: 1.0465
EURJPY
R 2: 127.50
R 1: 126.50
CURRENT: 125.45
S 1: 124.40
S 2: 122.15
USDMXN
R 2: 13.015
R 1: 12.975
CURRENT: 12.890
S 1: 12.795
S 2: 12.685
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Market Brief |
AUDUSD is slightly higher today (touching a high of 0.9045) after fourth quarter CPI came out stronger than expected at an annualized pace of 2.1%; above the RBA’s inflation target of 2-3%. Markets are now pricing in a 73% chance of another 25bp hike when the RBA convenes on 2nd Feb, which if realized would represent the fourth rate rise in as many meetings. The JPY is also stronger today as risk appetite remains nervous about the risk of China tightening policy, and reports of artillery fire between North and South Korea also briefly weighed on USDJPY and EURJPY. JPY bulls will also be encouraged by comments yesterday from Japan’s PM Hatoyama that there were no immediate plans to counter the recent strength of the JPY. In the meantime, Asian equities have had a mixed session after their 7 day slide; it is likely most traders will be wary ahead of tonight’s FOMC meeting.
Yesterday’s US data was encouraging on the whole; the Case Shiller home price index showed a modest gain (albeit lower than forecasts), consumer confidence rose significantly to 55.9 against expectations for a 53.5 reading, and the Richmond Fed clawed its way up to -2 from last month’s -4 level. Fed policy makers are extremely unlikely to make any change to the current level of Fed Funds tonight, but clearly it will be important to see whether they signal a future policy path that is misaligned with current market pricing. Today we will also get Barack Obama’s scheduled State of the Union address; likely to garner increased attention given the profound impact on financial markets he had last week when announcing plans for reforming the banking system.
In the morning session we will get the latest German CPI figures for January; expected to rise once again to +1.0% YoY (from 0.9% last month). It has been suggested that markets are starting to speculate that the ECB may begin monetary tightening before the Fed, and any economic data to support this scenario is likely to be supportive of EURUSD going forward. The only other release of the morning will be UK CBI distributive trades data; but otherwise expect flows to be light.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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