|
|
UK Emerges From Recession But Growth Fails To Inspire
January 26, 2010 5:31 PM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.99 |  |  | CAD | -0.39 | | | GBP | -0.39 | | | DKK | -0.47 | | | EUR | -0.52 | | | AUD | -0.52 | | | CHF | -0.53 | | | SEK | -0.53 | | | NOK | -0.58 | | | NZD | -0.92 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| FTSE 100 Index | 5'252.52 | - 0.15 | | DAX Index | 5'646.03 | + 0.26 | | SMI Index | 6'461.02 | + 0.15 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'096.85 | + 0.01 | | DJIA Index | 10'224.22 | + 0.27 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10'270.00 | - 0.68 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 1'098.78 | + 0.03 | | Silver | 16.68 | - 2.66 | | VIX | 24.47 | - 3.70 | | Crude wti | 74.60 | - 0.88 | | USD Index | 78.53 | + 0.43 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| Wed 27 Jan | --- | --- | --- | | Consumer prices, % q/q Q4 | 0.4 | 1.0 | AUD/00:30 | | CBI distributive trades, total sales, net bal Jan | --- | 13 | GBP/11:00 | | Germany: Preliminary CPI, % m/m (y/y) Jan | -0.4 (1.0) | 0.7 (0.8) | EUR/AM | | New home sales, thous Dec | 355 | 374 | USD/15:00 | | FOMC rate decision announced Jan | 0.25 | 0.25 | USD/19:15 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.4313
R 1: 1.4225
CURRENT: 1.4080
S 1: 1.4040
S 2: 1.3900
USDJPY
R 2: 91.90
R 1: 90.75
CURRENT: 89.45
S 1: 89.35
S 2: 89.00
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.6450
R 1: 1.6300
CURRENT: 1.6160
S 1: 1.6090
S 2: 1.6060
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9148
R 1: 0.9090
CURRENT: 0.8995
S 1: 0.8940
S 2: 0.8905
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0700
R 1: 1.0635
CURRENT: 1.0615
S 1: 1.0530
S 2: 1.0465
|
|
Market Brief |
As expected, the UK economy finally emerged from recession in Q4, growing 0.1% QoQ (-3.2% YoY); the first expansion since Q1 2008. However, the figures were much lower than analyst estimates (consensus 0.4% QoQ, -3.0% YoY), sending GBPUSD tumbling from 1.6268 highs seen just before the release quickly down below 1.6150, and eventually touching 1.6094 lows by mid-afternoon. UK Chancellor Alistair Darling was later quoted as saying that there was still a lot of economic uncertainty around, and that deficit reduction in the UK was going to be tough.
The USD has gradually strengthened throughout the day, pushing EURUSD to lows of 1.4043 and USDCHF back up towards major resistance ahead of 1.0500; but thus far most pairs are still holding within their consolidation ranges. This afternoon’s release of US Consumer Confidence was a better than expected 55.9 print (53.5 expected), and last month’s reading was revised up to 53.6 (from 52.9); allowing equity markets to turn mildly positive on the day.
We feel it is unlikely we see a break-out of these ranges today (barring headline risk) as markets are unlikely to start defining a new trend just yet with the January FOMC meeting looming tomorrow. Markets are expecting no change to interest rates, but as always, the Fed’s opinions on the US outlook and any hints on monetary policy stance from here will be of high significance to the USD. Before that, also expect Australian Consumer Prices for Q4 and US New Home Sales figures for December.
|
|
Asian Session: China Raises Reserve Ratio & Scares Risk Takers
January 26, 2010 11:19 AM CET
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.12 | | | GBP | -0.06 | | | CAD | -0.40 | | | DKK | -0.47 | | | CHF | -0.49 | | | EUR | -0.53 | | | NOK | -0.70 | | | SEK | -0.73 | | | NZD | -0.93 | | | AUD | -1.01 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 10,325.28 | - 1.78 | | Hang Seng Index | 20,173.26 | - 2.06 | | Shanghai Index | 3,019.04 | - 2.43 | | FTSE futures | 5,224.50 | - 0.73 | | DAX futures | 5,640.50 | - 1.08 | | SMI Futures | 6,375.00 | - 0.76 | | S&P future | 1,082.90 | - 0.88 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 1,095.50 | - 0.26 | | Silver | 17.03 | - 0.64 | | VIX | 25.41 | - 6.95 | | Crude wti | 74.29 | - 1.28 | | USD Index | 78.44 | + 0.32 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| German Ifo sentiment index | 95.1 | 94.7 | EUR / 09.00 | | German Ifo current conditions index | 91.2 | 90.5 | EUR / 09.00 | | German expectations index | 99.2 | 99.1 | EUR / 09.00 | | Q4 GDP - prov Q/Q | 0.4% | -0.2% | GBP / 09.30 | | Consumer Confidence | 53.5 | 52.9 | USD / 15.00 | | House Price Index | 0.2% | 0.6% | USD / 15.00 | | Richmond Fed Manf. Index | 0 | -4 | USD / 15.00 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9148
R 1: 0.9090
CURRENT: 0.8973
S 1: 0.8940
S 2: 0.8905
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0635
R 1: 1.0610
CURRENT: 1.0612
S 1: 1.0530
S 2: 1.0465
EURJPY
R 2: 129.45
R 1: 128.35
CURRENT: 126.95
S 1: 124.40
S 2: 122.15
USDMXN
R 2: 13.015
R 1: 12.975
CURRENT: 12.911
S 1: 12.795
S 2: 12.685
|
|
Market Brief |
USD rallied back in the Asian session, as news that China was again raising its reserve requirements on select banks and S&Ps lowering of Japans outlook spooked investors. Yesterday, Wall Street was able to close on a postive note, but news from China and Japan clouded the sentiment.The Nikkei closed down -1.78%, while Shanghai was down -2.42%. After an encouraging start, the EURUSD traded higher to 1.4180 and pushing JPY cross higher as well, but around midday sentiment shifted and risk correlated trades tumbled. With Australia on holiday, Tokyo were the main players in AUD, selling the pair down to 0.8960 as high beta trades came under the knife. Outside Asia, political issues in the US continued to also weigh on risk taking, particularly Bernanke’s potential confirmation of a second term. While the White House sounds confident that the Senate will confirm the current chairman, and positive comment have helped ease concerns, Obama public mandate is currently being questioned, a rogue senators effecting the vote should be priced in.
In Japan, the BoJ voted unanimously to keep the policy rate unchanged at 0.1%. The meeting went widely as expected with no new policies or adjustments to existing schemes/operations being announced. Core CPI forecast was revised higher for fiscal 2010 to -0.5% y/y from -0.8% y/y previously, which was followed up by FM Kan stating that Japan could be clearly out of a deflationary environment in 2-3 years with the BoJ help. While he didn’t elaborate on what monetary policy tools the BoJ has to achieve this feat, they could include increasing the central banks monthly purchases of JGB. Later in the day the S&P inexpertly lowered Japan's sovereign rating outlook from ‘stable‘ to ‘negative’. Japan's rating remains at AA, fiscal outlook is unlikely to improve as the new government spending plans restrict any positive adjustment to surge debt and we would expect other rating agencies to also lower in the near term.
UK GDP just sqeeked out recession with today q/q print of 0.1% vs. 0.4% exp , -0.2% prior read (y/y -3.2% vs. -3.0% exp). Perhaps Chancellor Darling comments on today’s GDP data that he remains 'cautious' was more than just easing the markets optimism (however, historically UK GDP are revised upwards). The economic data was very close to the bone and can easily be revised down. The disappointing report causedthe GBPUSD to collapse to 1.6150 from 1.6230.
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|