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Dollar Surges Further
January 20, 2010 3:49 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
 | JPY | -0.35 | | | GBP | -0.62 | | | NOK | -1.08 | | | EUR | -1.19 | | | DKK | -1.20 | | | CHF | -1.28 | | | SEK | -1.38 | | | AUD | -1.39 | | | CAD | -1.65 | | | NZD | -2.60 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'461.38 | - 0.94 | | DAX Index | 5'933.21 | - 0.72 | | SMI Index | 6'628.48 | - 0.08 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'139.79 | - 0.91 | | DJIA Index | 10'622.65 | - 0.96 | | Hang Seng Futures | 10'690.00 | - 0.65 | | Shanghai Futures | 21'183.00 | - 1.98 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'120.18 | - 1.58 | | Silver | 18.25 | - 2.63 | | VIX | 17.58 | - 1.84 | | Crude wti | 77.56 | - 1.85 | | USD Index | 78.22 | + 0.92 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Retail sales, % m/m Nov | 0.5 | 0.0 | NZD/21:45 | | Thu 21 Jan | --- | --- | --- | | M4 money supply, % m/m Dec | 0.9 | 0.1 | GBP/09:30 | | Initial jobless claims, thous 16-Jan | 440 | 444 | USD/13:30 | | Continuing claims, thous 9-Jan | 4600 | 4596 | USD/13:30 | | Philadelphia Fed mfg index Jan | 18.5 | 20.4 | USD/15:00 | | Leading indicators index, % m/m Jan | 0.7 | 0.9 | USD/15:00 |
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Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.4410
R 1: 1.4250
CURRENT: 1.4130
S 1: 1.4100
S 2: 1.4000
USDJPY
R 2: 92.35
R 1: 91.40
CURRENT: 91.40
S 1: 90.50
S 2: 90.00
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.6500
R 1: 1.6460
CURRENT: 1.6285
S 1: 1.6250
S 2: 1.6130
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9405
R 1: 0.9325
CURRENT: 0.9135
S 1: 0.9125
S 2: 0.8960
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0580
R 1: 1.0500
CURRENT 1.0480
S 1: 1.0220
S 2: 1.0205
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Market Brief |
The USD has climbed for a second consecutive day as negative sentiment continued to weigh heavy on risk appetite. Equity markets in Europe have struggled, and after EURUSD broke through downside support at 1.4250 overnight, the pair has continued to trade heavily, touching lows of 1.4126. In parallel, gold has broke through its near term support level of $1130 to trade down to $1120.45, but we expect prior buying interest at $1119 to provide some respite to the sell-off.
During the morning session, the UK ILO unemployment rate surprisingly fell to 7.8% (exp: 8.0%, prev: 7.9%), but the GBP failed to find much buying interest on this news. Also released were the minutes of the recent BoE meeting; as expected, there was a unanimous 9-0 vote to keep rates on hold and maintain the asset purchase target at GBP200bn. Furthermore, the statement explained that recent developments had not substantially changed the BoE’s view on the medium term outlook, and instead, they would wait until the release of the February Inflation Report to get a clearer assessment of the factors affecting the economy.
During the afternoon, Canadian CPI disappointed at -0.3% MoM (-0.1% expected, 0.5% prior), forcing USDCAD to push through 1.0450 resistance, touching a high of 1.0487. US housing starts and building permits were mixed on the whole, but the net result has seen further USD buying into the USequity market open.
Tomorrow’s data calendar is expected to be light; with UK M4 money supply, US claims data and leading indicators due.
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NZD Plunges After Disappointing CPI
January 20, 2010 8:57 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.15 |  | | CAD | -0.46 | | | NOK | -0.57 | | | GBP | -0.59 | | | CHF | -0.62 | | | DKK | -0.63 | | | EUR | -0.68 | | | SEK | -0.69 | | | AUD | -1.18 | | | NZD | -1.73 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10'737.52 | - 0.25 | | Hang Seng Index | 21'233.55 | - 2.05 | | Shanghai Index | 3'151.85 | - 2.93 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5'513.14 | + 0.34 | | DAX Index | 5'976.48 | + 0.98 | | SMI Index | 6'633.86 | + 0.46 | | S&P future | 1'142.20 | - 0.31 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'130.04 | - 0.72 | | Silver | 18.59 | - 0.84 | | VIX | 17.58 | - 1.84 | | Crude wti | 78.30 | - 0.91 | | USD Index | 77.87 | + 0.48 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| ILO unemployment, % Nov | 7.9 | 8.0 | GBP/09:30 | | BoE MPC minutes, vote Jan | 9-0 | 9-0 | GBP/09:30 | | CPI, % m/m (y/y) Dec | -0.1 (1.6) | 0.5 (1.0) | CAD/13:30 | | PPI, % m/m (y/y) Dec | 1.8 (2.4) | 0.0 (4.5) | USD/13:30 | | Housing starts, thous Dec | 572 | 574 | USD/13:30 | | Building permits, thous Dec | 580 | 589 | USD/13:30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9405
R 1: 0.9325
CURRENT: 0.9150
S 1: 0.9125
S 2: 0.89.60
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0580
R 1: 1.0425
CURRENT 1.0360
S 1: 1.0220
S 2: 1.0205
EURJPY
R 2: 133.65
R 1: 132.40
CURRENT: 129.10
S 1: 128.95
S 2: 128.00
USDMXN
R 2: 12.825
R 1: 12.778
CURRENT: 12.676
S 1: 12.575
S 2: 12.487
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Market Brief |
Last night’s Q4 CPI reading out of New Zealand came out at a lower than expected -0.2% QoQ, +2.0% YoY (consensus +0.2% MoM, +2.1% YoY); reducing the likelihood that the RBNZ will shift to a more hawkish stance in the imminent future. As a consequence, NZDUSD plunged from 0.7400 levels just prior to the release down through first support at 0.7330, and is now threatening a break of the major support level at 0.7290. The USD has also been spurred higher (DXY +0.50%) by disappointing equity market performances across Asia; with the Hang Seng down -2.1% on the day, and the Shanghai Composite down nearly 3%.
EURUSD has taken out its critical 1.4250 support (touching a low of 1.4168 overnight), after the disappointing ZEW survey yesterday, and comments from European Finance Ministers voicing their concerns over the problems in Greece having a knock-on effect within the Euro-bloc. Monetary Affairs Commissioner Almunia stated that “The fate of one is the fate of all… This situation in Greece is having effects on other countries.” And in a subsequent interview, the IMF Managing Director Strauss-Kahn described the Greece issue as “a serious problem”, but added that he did not believe it would lead to the subsequent break-up of the eurozone.
Today’s data events include UK ILO Unemployment (expected to rise to 8.0% from 7.9% currently), and the release of the BoE Minutes. After yesterday’s shock increase in UK CPI (0.6% MoM, 2.9% YoY), BoE Governor King downplayed the speculated pick-up in CPI for the first half the year by attributing the rise to temporary factors. He also clarified that the MPC would wait for clearer conditions before deciding on the fate of the QE programme. Also due this afternoon will be Canadian CPI (forecast to fall -0.2% MoM), US PPI (expected to remain flat on the month), along with US Housing Starts and Building Permits.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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