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GBP Outperforms As UK Industrial Production Impresses
January 13, 2010 5:37 PM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | GBP | 0.73 |  | | | CAD | 0.43 | | | | AUD | 0.27 | | | | NZD | 0.24 | | | | NOK | 0.23 | | | | SEK | 0.13 | | | | EUR | 0.05 | | | | DKK | 0.05 | |  | CHF | -0.06 | | | JPY | -0.46 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'465.74 | - 0.60 | | DAX Index | 5'955.53 | + 0.21 | | SMI Index | 6'546.83 | + 0.08 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'139.17 | + 0.26 | | DJIA Index | 10'653.49 | + 0.25 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10'700.00 | - 0.19 | | Hang Seng Futures | 21'784.00 | - 2.05 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'125.30 | - 0.28 | | Silver | 18.38 | + 0.73 | | VIX | 18.22 | - 0.16 | | Crude wti | 78.88 | - 2.36 | | USD Index | 76.95 | 0.00 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Thu 14 Jan | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial production, % m/m Nov | 0.5 | -0.6 | EUR/10:00 | | ECB rate announcement, % Jan | 1.00 | 1.00 | EUR/12:45 | | Retail sales, % m/m Dec | 0.5 | 1.3 | USD/13:30 | | Initial jobless claims, thous 09-Jan | 436 | 434 | USD/13:30 | | Continuing claims, thous 02-Jan | 4750 | 4802 | USD/13:30 | | Business inventories, % m/m Nov | 0.3 | 0.2 | USD/15:00 |
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Currency Tech |
EURUSD
R 2: 1.4600
R 1: 1.4575
CURRENT: 1.4490
S 1: 1.4410
S 2: 1.4330
USDJPY
R 2: 94.50
R 1: 93.77
CURRENT: 91.40
S 1: 90.50
S 2: 90.00
GBPUSD
R 2: 1.6335
R 1: 1.6300
CURRENT: 1.6280
S 1: 1.6020
S 2: 1.5900
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9405
R 1: 0.9325
CURRENT: 0.9220
S 1: 0.9125
S 2: 0.9090
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0585
R 1: 1.0422
CURRENT: 1.0345
S 1: 1.0255
S 2: 1.0208
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Market Brief |
Equity indices across Europe have put in mixed performances today, and the thin economic calendar meant markets lacked fundamental data to guide currency trends during the session. The USD has been on a round trip as selling pressure prevailed in the European morning, but once US desks opened up, the moves were readily reversed and the DXY is now almost back to flat on the day at 76.90. The main focus of the morning was UK Industrial Production which posted a better-than-expected 0.3% MoM increase in November (0.2% expected, 0.0% prior); a result that has helped pushed GBPUSD above the 1.6250 resistance level to touch highs of 1.6294. The recent rally in GBP has emphatically negated the break-out of the lower end of its range which occurred at the end of 2009, and a daily close above 1.6250 today in GBPUSD would likely open up the topside for a revisit of 1.6400.
German GDP for 2009 came out at a subdued -5.0% annualized rate against consensus estimates for -4.8%, but investors quickly shrugged off this disappointment ahead of tomorrow’s more significant ECB meeting. It is widely anticipated that the members of the governing council will vote to keep rates unchanged at 1.00%, but given the cessation of 12-month tenders in December, markets will be looking for this month’s statement and press conference to give further details on the ECB’s exit strategy from here. It is likely that Trichet will reiterate that both inflation and inflation expectations remain firmly anchored for the time being, and thus far, there has been very little to suggest any monetary tightening will be forthcoming until much later this year. Eurozone Industrial Production due in the earlier part of the morning is expected to post a 0.5% MoM expansion after the previous month’s disappointing -0.6% reading.
In the afternoon, US Retail Sales should provide some catalyst for FX volatility as analysts are forecasting another strong month of consumer spending in the US (consensus: +0.5%, previous: +1.3%). After last month’s unexpected jump in Retail Sales the USD enjoyed a sharp rally, and we would look for this reading to exert a similar effect on the USD this time around. Should the reading miss estimates, it is likely that USD weakness will continue for the coming weeks.
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China Raises Reserve Requirements, Fuelling Speculation Of Imminent Rate Hikes
January 13, 2010 8:53 AM CET
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 0.41 | | | | GBP | 0.38 | | | | AUD | 0.36 | | | | CAD | 0.06 | | | | NOK | 0.06 | | | | DKK | 0.05 | | | | EUR | 0.05 | | | | CHF | 0.01 | | | | SEK | 0.00 | | | JPY | -0.25 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10'735.03 | - 1.32 | | Hang Seng Index | 21'749.12 | - 2.59 | | Shanghai Index | 3'172.66 | - 3.09 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5'498.71 | - 0.71 | | DAX Index | 5'943.00 | - 1.61 | | SMI Index | 6'541.90 | - 0.76 | | S&P future | 1'133.50 | - 0.04 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'128.05 | - 0.04 | | Silver | 18.25 | - 0.03 | | VIX | 18.25 | + 3.99 | | Crude wti | 79.77 | - 1.26 | | USD Index | 76.98 | + 0.03 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Germany GDP, % y/y (non-wda) 2009 | -4.8 | 1.3 | EUR/08:15 | | Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Nov | 0.3 (-6.1) | 0.0 (-8.4) | GBP/09:30 | | Manufacturing output, % m/m (y/y) Nov | 0.2 (-5.1) | 0.0 (-7.8) | GBP/09:30 | | Fed Beige Book report released | --- | --- | USD/19:00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.9405
R 1: 0.9325
CURRENT: 0.9245
S 1: 0.9125
S 2: 0.9090
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0585
R 1: 1.0422
CURRENT: 1.0385
S 1: 1.0255
S 2: 1.0208
EURJPY
R 2: 134.55
R 1: 134.38
CURRENT: 132.20
S 1: 132.40
S 2: 130.60
USDMXN
R 2: 12.845
R 1: 12.810
CURRENT: 12.805
S 1: 12.575
S 2: 12.485
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Market Brief |
Asian stocks fell heavily overnight after China, the engine behind the global recovery thus far, raised its reserve ratio in yet another move that signals officials are moving towards a less accommodative policy stance. After China’s recent action to guide its benchmark money-market rate higher, speculation is mounting that interest rate hikes are on the way. The Shanghai Composite is down over 3% on the day, the Hang Seng down nearly 2.5%, and the Nikkei down nearly 1.5% - the latter weighed again by Japan Airlines stock which traded limit down for the second day in a row (i.e. trading halted after the stock lost the maximum 45% allowed within a single session). The USD is having a mixed performance in relation to risk appetite at the start of this year; and today’s price action is giving very few clues with the DXY currently flat on the day at 76.92. EURUSD is still trading around 1.4500 levels, and once again we have a relatively thin economic calendar ahead which makes for difficult forecasting of the morning’s moves. German GDP is unlikely to overshadow last week’s Eurozone final Q3 GDP reading, and UK Industrial Production is the only other data due in the morning session relevant to FX markets. In the latter, analysts are expecting a 0.3% expansion from last month’s flat print, and with GBPUSD poised to threaten 1.6250 range highs, this will be an important reading to see whether there is enough momentum in the market for a breakout rally, or whether there will be a return to the ranges. This afternoon there are no economic releases scheduled from the US, but towards the end of the session expect speeches from the Fed’s Plosser and Evans, along with the release of the Fed Beige Book.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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