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Late European Session
September 30, 2009 4:08 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUD | 1.02 |  | | | NZD | 0.74 | | | | NOK | 0.58 | | | | CAD | 0.54 | | | | JPY | 0.49 | | | | SEK | 0.12 | | | | GBP | 0.08 | | | | EUR | 0.07 | | | | DKK | 0.05 | |  | CHF | -0.35 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'137.75 | - 0.43 | | DAX Index | 5'675.11 | - 0.67 | | SMI Index | 6'324.73 | + 0.13 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'047.57 | - 1.23 | | DJIA Index | 9'616.98 | - 1.29 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10'110.00 | + 0.10 | | Hang Seng Futures | 20'895.00 | - 0.10 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 995.88 | + 0.35 | | Silver | 16.26 | + 0.62 | | VIX | 26.33 | + 4.53 | | Crude wti | 66.72 | + 0.01 | | USD Index | 76.88 | - 0.23 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8940
R 1: 0.8835
CURRENT: 0.8775
S 1: 0.8676
S 2: 0.8585
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1100
R 1: 1.0990
CURRENT: 1.0795
S 1: 1.0710
S 2: 1.0660
EURJPY
R 2: 133.85
R 1: 132.10
CURRENT: 130.65
S 1: 129.83
S 2: 129.35
USDMXN
R 2: 13.655
R 1: 13.620
CURRENT: 13.520
S 1: 13.468
S 2: 13.325
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Market Brief |
It’s been an eventful session since the European open; the German Unemployment Rate was better than expected at 8.2% (vs. 8.4% consensus), and that coinciding with equity market gains began a EURUSD rally to highs of 1.4674. Norwegian Retail Sales followed with a 0.3% M/M gain in Aug (vs. 0.2% expected), and shortly afterwards the Norges Bank’s Gjedrem was on the wires with extremely hawkish comments that Norway’s interest rate was now “extraordinarily low”. EURNOK plunged from 8.5300 to 8.4700 and underlined NOK’s position as one of the currencies likely to outperform along with the AUD going forward (as mentioned in this morning’s European Snapshot). Eurozone CPI first estimate came out at -0.3% for Sep, which was lower than estimates of a 0.2% decline, but the figures did not detract from the broader USD weakness that was driving EURUSD moves.
The main US release was the ADP Employment Change (Sep) ahead of this Friday’s all-important Non-Farm Payrolls. The -254k print heavily missed analyst forecasts for -200k, but the prior month’s reading of -298k was revised upwards to -277k. Subsequently the DXY benefitted from a wave of risk aversion, rallying from 76.60 to 76.94, Sending EURUSD back to flat on the day at 1.4585 and equity markets down.
Meanwhile Switzerland’s KOF Leading Indicator for Sep had convincingly beat estimates with a 0.85 print vs. 0.30 expected; USDCHF dipped to 1.0285, but EURCHF could only grind down gradually to 1.5080 as speculators anticipated SNB intervention after the ECB tender. Having spent the last week washing around 1.5080-1.5120, the pair rocketed higher moments after the release of the ADP report, flying from 1.5080 to 1.5175 in a matter of seconds, and after a brief pause continuing on to touch a high of 1.5240. There was no official confirmation from the SNB that they had stepped into the market to buy EURCHF, but it would take a massive player to effect a move of that magnitude, and the alignment of EURCHF levels prior to the move with the ECB refinancing operation strongly suggests the fingerprints of previous interventions.
Amongst the slew of big releases and market-moving events, US GDP Q2 (annualized) was slightly better than expected at -0.7% vs. -1.2% consensus, but much of the improvement was already anticipated and priced in. The Chicago Purchasing Manager rounded off the main releases for the day with a worse than expected 46.1 reading.
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European Session: Watching the ECB Refinance Operation
September 30, 2009 9:38 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUD | 0.70 | | | | GBP | 0.63 | | | | NZD | 0.63 | | | | JPY | 0.53 | | | | NOK | 0.51 | | | | CHF | 0.35 | | | | CAD | 0.32 | | | | SEK | 0.31 | | | | DKK | 0.30 | | | | EUR | 0.29 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10.133.23 | + 0.32 | | Hang Seng Index | 20,859.24 | - 0.73 | | Shanghai Index | 2,775.64 | + 0.76 | | FTSE futures | 5,133.50 | + 0.12 | | DAX futures | 5,721.00 | + 0.02 | | SMI Futures | 6,313.00 | - 0.01 | | S&P future | 1,056.50 | + 0.16 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 997.55 | + 0.51 | | Silver | 16.38 | + 1.36 | | VIX | 25.19 | + 1.24 | | Crude wti | 67.11 | + 0.59 | | USD Index | 76.80 | - 0.33 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| BoE MPC member David Miles speaks | -- | -- | GBP / 09.00 | | Retail sales, % m/m Aug | -- | 2.4 (3.8) | NOK / 08.00 | | "Flash" HICP, % y/y Sep | -0.2 | -0.2 | EUR / 09:00 | | KoF leading indicator Sep | 0.20 | -0.04 | CHF / 12.15 | | ADP private payrolls, chg, thous Sep | -200 | -298 | USD / 12.15 | | GDP (% m/m) Jul | 0.5 | 0.1 | CAD / 12.30 | | GDP, % q/q saar (y/y) | -1.2, -3.9 | -1.0, -3.9 | USD / 12.30 | | GDP price index, % q/q (y/y) | 0.0 (1.5) | 0.0 (1.5) | USD / 12.30 | | Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Sep | 52 | 50 | USD / 13.45 | | Fed Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Lockhart spe | -- | -- | USD / 14.30 | | Fed Vice-Chairman Kohn (FOMC voter) speaks | -- | -- | USD / 16.30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8940
R 1: 0.8815
CURRENT: 0.8796
S 1: 0.8676
S 2: 0.8585
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1100
R 1: 1.0990
CURRENT: 1.0802
S 1: 1.0795
S 2: 1.0710
EURJPY
R 2: 133.85
R 1: 132.10
CURRENT: 131.26
S 1: 129.83
S 2: 129.35
USDMXN
R 2: 13.655
R 1: 13.620
CURRENT: 13.4900
S 1: 13.468
S 2: 13.325
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Market Brief |
The USD traded higher yesterday against most major currencies with DXY approaching 77.45 resistance level reaching 77.33. A break above 77.45 would suggest further rally of the dollar towards 78-79 levels. US equities tended to drop yesterday with S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.2% and 0.6% respectively. Stocks where anticipated to drop lower as U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly declined in September, with index falling to 53.1 from 54.5 in August a data from Conference Board showed. Other data release showed U.S. house prices increased, which suggests the housing market in the U.S. is stabilizing. The hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers also helped the USD recover from one-year lows. This morning, Philadelphia Fed President Plosser said there are signs the "economy is turning the corner” and that “the Fed will need to act promptly (and) perhaps aggressively when the time comes to exit.” Overnight, Dallas Fed President Fisher said that the “wind-down process” must begin as "…
EURSUD fell on Tuesday hitting 1.4526 in NY trading session. Euro’s weakness began in the European session as stocks declined, and further decline came after the release of U.S. consumer confidence report, while additional pressure came from Russia’s central bank as they are willing to maintain its US currency reserve. On the data front, Euro Zone consumer confidence rose yesterday to highest level in one year. The EUR/USD improved in today’s Asian session rising above 1.46 levels.
The GBPUSD increased yesterday, recovering from Mondays Lows of 1.5767, supported by a report showing stabilization in the UK retail sector, while mortgage approvals for August were slightly below July’s with 52,317 approvals. UK revised and final GDP for Q2 came along expectations with U.K. economy shrinking by 0.6%.
The AUDUSD reached new 2009 highs as retail sales were stronger than expected at 0.9% m/m vs. 0.5% exp. but weaker building approvals, private sector credit data and business credit stymied the move. Markets now will be focused on the RBA next meeting on 6th October.
For FX markets, the ECB refinance operation is being closely watched today effect on the EURCHF. The last major round of intervention by the SNB coincided with the previous 12-month refinancing operation, and traders are watching for a simliar reaction today if EURCHF trades below 1.5100. Above this level we believe the SNB will hold off.
Out side the ECB refinance operation, markets will be on Germany’s unemployment report and Euro Zone CPI. From U.S. will be awaiting the release of final Q2 GDP, ADP unemployment change, and Chicago PMI, while Canada will also be releasing it’s August industrial production price and GDP for July.
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Asian Session: Markets Decline in Asia as Traders Scale Back Risk
September 30, 2009 2:28 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Cad | 0.36 | | | | Sek | 0.25 | | | | Chf | 0.23 | | | | Dkk | 0.20 | | | | Eur | 0.18 | | | | Nok | 0.12 | | | | Gbp | 0.01 | | | Aud | -0.06 | | | Nzd | -0.13 | | | Jpy | -0.25 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Futures | 10,070.00 | - 0.30 | | Hang Seng Futures | 20,915.00 | 0.00 | | KOSPI Index | 1,690.05 | + 0.87 | | FTSE futures | 5'133.50 | + 0.00 | | CAC futures | 3'815.50 | - 0.29 | | DAX futures | 5'719.50 | - 0.04 | | SMI Futures | 6'314.00 | + 0.43 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 66.63 | - 0.12 | | Gold | 992.80 | + 0.04 | | Silver | 16.17 | + 0.11 | | USD Index | 77.06 | + 0.01 | | VIX | 25.19 | + 1.25 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Industrial Production | 1.8% | 2.1% | JN/07:50 | | Labor Cash Earnings | -4.0% | -4.8% | JN/09:30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8800
R 1: 0.8751
CURRENT: 0.8742
S 1: 0.8665
S 2: 0.8628
USDCAD
R 2: 1.0985
R 1: 1.0916
CURRENT: 1.0843
S 1: 1.0785
S 2: 1.0725
NZDUSD
R 2: 0.7264
R 1: 0.7204
CURRENT: 0.7166
S 1: 0.7106
S 2: 0.7068
USDSGD
R 2: 1.4234
R 1: 1.4207
CURRENT: 1.4184
S 1: 1.4159
S 2: 1.4137
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Market Brief |
Asian markets followed suit with the pullback in the US, as Traders and Investors look to reduce exposure to risk. Futures are pointing to a lower open in Australia and Japan, as commodity prices continue to slump on very precautious estimates on economic data scheduled to be released in Europe and the US later today. Japan did report a better than expected Industrial output figure of 1.8%, which is the sixth consecutive month of growth serving as proof govt. stimulus may be improving economic conditions. The strength in the Industrial output figure may providue some support in the trading session, but a broader more collective pattern of positive data will be necessary to uphold the rally we've seen across asset classes in the last several months.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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