Daily Forex Snapshots

European Session: Waiting on the ECB

September 03, 2009 10:32 AM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	NZD	0.34
	GBP	0.23
	CAD	0.20
	NOK	0.18
	AUD	0.13
	EUR	0.10
	DKK	-0.01
	CHF	-0.12
	JPY	-0.19
	SEK	-0.36

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	10.214.64	- 0.60
Hang Seng Index	19,781.83	+ 1.33
Shanghai Index	2,84	+ 4.76
FTSE 100 Index	4,823.15	+ 0.11
DAX Index	5,324.78	+ 0.09
SMI Index	6,089.76	+ 0.01
S&P future	998.40	+ 0.44

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	978.88	+ 0.03
Silver	15.58	+ 1.16
VIX	28.90	- 0.85
Crude wti	68.85	+ 1.17
USD Index	78.29	- 0.15

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

Retail sales, % m/m (y/y)Jul	0.1 (-2.2)	-0.2, -2.5	EUR / 09.00
ECB rate announcement, %Sep	1.00	1.00	EUR / 11.45
ECB press conference - Latest macroeconomics proje	--	--	EUR / 12.30
Initial jobless claims, thous (4wk mvg avg)29-Aug	--	570 (566)	USD / 12.30
ISM non-mfg composite, index Aug	48.0	46.4	USD / 14.00
CPI, % y/y Aug	--	5.4	TRY / 14.00
MoF Corporate Survey capex ex. software, % y/y Q2	-23.1	-23.5	JPY / 23.50

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8520
R 1: 0.8479
CURRENT: 0.8384
S 1: 0.8240
S 2: 0.8155

USDCAD
R 2: 1.1120
R 1: 1.1105
CURRENT: 1.1029
S 1: 1.0875
S 2: 1.0795

EURJPY
R 2: 135.00
R 1: 134.20
CURRENT: 132.00
S 1: 130.47
S 2: 129.35

USDMXN
R 2: 13.845
R 1: 13.790
CURRENT: 13.579
S 1: 13.330
S 2: 13.205

Market Brief

The Greenback fell yesterday despite stocks continued falling for the fourth consecutive day on concerns that economy still under big pressure, as reports from U.S. on job losses and factory orders came worse than expected. The Yen was higher against most major currencies closing almost on a seven weeks high against the dollar and euro, as Nikkei Index dropped for a second day, boosting demand for the safe haven currency, and could be also supported by indication the new government would not worry on appreciating yen, and would not intervene in currency markets.

The Aussie gained against the Dollar and Yen, supported by GDP report, which showed economic growth for Q2 came higher than expected at 0.6% QoQ from 0.4% in Q1. Canadian Dollar still weak as crude oil prices remained below $70 per barrel. The Pound was able to find support at 1.61 levels, to rally more than 150 pips closing at 1.6264.

Australia released their trade balance report today, coming at -1.56 B as exports decreased and imports increased. Exports declined by 1% whereas imports increased by 4% with oil imports jumping 21%. Overall the Asian session is seeing little movements in the market, with most major currencies just trading close to their opening, while focus turns today into European Retail Sales and ECB minutes.

ECB will keep its refinancing rate unchanged at 1%, but focus will be on the press conference 45 min after the decision. Investors are mainly looking into two aspects from the meeting. First, would there be any signal of increasing the interest rate in the near term, and second whether GDP forecast had been upgraded from June. I don’t believe the ECB will even signal any increase in rates for 2009 and I believe it will remain at 1% at least till Q1 2010. Regarding the GDP forecast could be revised upward, while inflation outlook may remain subdue for some time.

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