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Late European Session
September 29, 2009 4:20 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | GBP | 0.34 |  |  | NZD | -0.31 | | | CAD | -0.34 | | | AUD | -0.36 | | | EUR | -0.49 | | | DKK | -0.51 | | | NOK | -0.52 | | | JPY | -0.57 | | | CHF | -0.61 | | | SEK | -0.64 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'156.39 | - 0.18 | | DAX Index | 5'711.32 | - 0.44 | | SMI Index | 6'304.15 | + 0.24 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'065.53 | + 0.24 | | DJIA Index | 9'793.07 | + 0.04 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10'070.00 | + 0.40 | | Hang Seng Futures | 21'013.00 | + 1.80 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 991.43 | + 0.04 | | Silver | 16.14 | - 0.25 | | VIX | 24.87 | - 0.04 | | Crude wti | 66.16 | - 1.02 | | USD Index | 77.26 | + 0.28 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8815
R 1: 0.8790
CURRENT: 0.8700
S 1: 0.8590
S 2: 0.8530
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1000
R 1: 1.0930
CURRENT: 1.0885
S 1: 1.0710
S 2: 1.0660
EURJPY
R 2: 133.85
R 1: 132.50
CURRENT: 131.20
S 1: 129.80
S 2: 127.82
USDMXN
R 2: 13. 615
R 1: 13.575
CURRENT: 13.540
S 1: 13.465
S 2: 13.325
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Market Brief |
Japanese Fin. Min. Fujii yet again unsettled the FX markets with more baffling rhetoric this morning, with the ensuing JPY fall boosting Asian stocks to close higher. Since then however, European equity markets have failed to get much of a foothold and most indices remain flat over the course of the day. The Dow and S&P opened a higher, but only marginally, and commodity markets have failed to be inspired by any uptick in risk sentiment (gold $991, silver $16.15).
UK GDP fell -0.6% Q/Q in Q2; in line median forecasts and slightly above the -0.7% prior reading. Meanwhile mortgage approvals remained elevated at 52.3K (51.5K exp.), the highest level since April 2008; there were also upward revisions to last month’s numbers (52.4K from 50.1K prior) as the UK housing sector shows some signs of stabilizing. M4 reports indicated a modest improvement in credit conditions, and although GBP was unchanged against its major counterparts on the releases, shortly afterwards the UK CBI Retail Sales Survey revealed signs of improvement in conditions. This snowballing of better than expected numbers triggered a sharp rise in GBP, taking out stops in EURGBP and causing the pair to drop from 0.9210 to 0.9110.
Meanwhile Eurozone Consumer Confidence came out at -19 vs. -21 exp, whilst the Business Climate Indicator improved to -2.07 from -2.21 last month. The latter was highest reading since last November, but missed consensus estimates for a -1.92 reading, and had little effect on EURUSD. ECB’s Juncker was on the wires saying public finances were under a great deal of pressure and that he saw growth in unemployment, but added that “now is the time to design our exit strategies” and that he saw such strategies being implemented in 2011.
The big US data release of the day was the Consumer Confidence figures which missed market estimates, printing 53.1 (57.0 exp.); the USD gained marginally against its peers (DXY 77.25) and US equities returned to flat on the day. ABC Consumer Confidence will follow later this evening.
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UK Final GDP Unlikely To Be Sterling’s Salvation
September 29, 2009 8:43 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 0.52 | | | | AUD | 0.26 | | | | SEK | 0.23 | | | | GBP | 0.21 | | | | CAD | 0.20 | | | | NOK | 0.06 | | | CHF | -0.02 | | | EUR | -0.03 | | | DKK | -0.05 | | | JPY | -0.47 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10'100.20 | + 0.91 | | Hang Seng Index | 21'051.87 | + 2.25 | | Shanghai Index | 2'752.31 | - 0.41 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5'165.70 | + 1.64 | | DAX Index | 5'736.31 | + 2.78 | | SMI Index | 6'289.27 | + 0.84 | | S&P future | 1'058.70 | - 0.03 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 991.81 | + 0.08 | | Silver | 16.17 | - 0.06 | | VIX | 24.88 | - 2.85 | | Crude wti | 66.83 | - 0.01 | | USD Index | 76.92 | - 0.17 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Sweden: Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Aug | -0.5 (3.8) | 1.9 (5.4) | SEK/07:30 | | E16: Retail PMI, index Sep | - | 47.1 | EUR/08:00 | | UK: Final GDP, % q/q (y/y) Q2 | -0.6(-5.4) | -0.7(-5.5) | GBP/08:30 | | UK: BoE mortgage approvals, K Aug | 51.5 | 50.1 | GBP/08:30 | | UK: BoE net secured lending, £ bn Aug | 0.2 | -0.4 | GBP/08:30 | | UK: BoE net consumer credit, £ bn Aug | 0 | -0.2 | GBP/08:30 | | UK: BoE publishes sectoral breakdown of M4 data | - | - | GBP/08:30 | | E16: Consumer confidence, index Sep | -21 | -22 | EUR/09:00 | | E16: Industrial confidence, index Sep | -24 | -26 | EUR/09:00 | | UK: CBI distributive trades, reported sales Sep | -13 | -16 | GBP/10:00 | | US: Consumer confidence Sep | 57.0 | 54.1 | USD/14:00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8815
R 1: 0.8790
CURRENT: 0.8750
S 1: 0.8590
S 2: 0.8530
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1000
R 1: 1.0930
CURRENT: 1.0835
S 1: 1.0710
S 2: 1.0660
EURJPY
R 2: 133.85
R 1: 132.50
CURRENT: 131.65
S 1: 129.80
S 2: 127.82
USDMXN
R 2: 13. 615
R 1: 13.575
CURRENT: 13.547
S 1: 13.465
S 2: 13.325
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Market Brief |
It was a quiet day in the FX space yesterday, with German CPI releases forming the entirety of the data releases during our session. The overall reading came in at -0.4% M/M (vs. +0.2% expected) but came as little surprise to the market, as regional figures released earlier all posted lower than forecast changes on the month. More influential were comments from ECB’s Trichet in the afternoon who stated that a strong USD is ‘extremely important’. The 30bp dip lower in EURUSD failed to gain much traction as improved risk appetite gradually ground back the advantage, EURUSD was confined to a 100bp range for most of the day (currently 1.4630). Most focus was instead turned to EURCHF which continues to hover around the 1.5100 level. We are looking to add to longs below the figure, and hope to exploit SNB intervention to weaken the CHF around these levels.
After equities in Europe and the US ended strongly higher yesterday, overnight Asian indices rebounded across the board from Monday’s sell-off. The DXY has remained stable (76.85) despite the slight improvement in risk appetite, and commodities are largely flat or very modestly higher (gold $992, silver $16.25). Japanese CPI data highlighted national inflation is -2.2% Y/Y, but the figures were in line with forecasts and, as is common with Japanese data releases, had very little FX impact.
Today the spotlight is on the UK as we await the final Q2 GDP reading along with mortgage approvals, consumer credit, and M4 money supply. GDP is expected to be revised upwards (Q/Q -0.6% exp, -0.7% prior), and whilst improvements in the UK data may force a squeeze higher in GBPUSD, rallies should be capped under 1.6110 (currently 1.5905), and our bias is that downside surprises form the greater risk to GBP going forward as other major economies exit the recession and look to pull away from accommodative monetary policy.
Elsewhere, expect Eurozone Retail PMI (47.1 prior), Eurozone Consumer Confidence (-21 exp, -22 prior), and US Consumer Confidence - expected to post a small improvement in Sep to 57.0 from 54.1 last month.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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