Daily Forex Snapshots

Late European Session

September 28, 2009 4:06 PM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	JPY	0.33
	CAD	-0.13
	EUR	-0.22
	NOK	-0.23
	DKK	-0.25
	AUD	-0.29
	SEK	-0.35
	CHF	-0.37
	NZD	-0.71
	GBP	-0.84

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

FTSE 100 Index	5'137.87	+ 1.10
DAX Index	5'687.50	+ 1.90
SMI Index	6'253.48	+ 0.27
S&P 500 Index	1'055.81	+ 1.09
DJIA Index	9'755.96	+ 0.94
Nikkei 225 Futures	10'040.00	- 2.62
Hang Seng Futures	20'642.00	- 1.41

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	992.13	+ 0.11
Silver	16.05	- 0.03
VIX	25.79	+ 0.70
Crude wti	66.46	+ 0.67
USD Index	76.86	+ 0.06

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

No further releases today

-/-

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8815
R 1: 0.8790
CURRENT: 0.8670
S 1: 0.8527
S 2: 0.8380

USDCAD
R 2: 1.1125
R 1: 1.1100
CURRENT: 1.0930
S 1: 1.0860
S 2: 1.0710

EURJPY
R 2: 133.85
R 1: 132.10
CURRENT: 130.80
S 1: 129.36
S 2: 127.82

USDMXN
R 2: 13.790
R 1: 13.662
CURRENT: 13.532
S 1: 13.465
S 2: 13.325

Market Brief

It’s been an extremely docile day after the early JPY dramas in Asia; European equities have performed solidly after futures pointed to a lower open, and US indices are in positive territory on early trading. The only data releases have been German regional and national CPI for Sep; the overall reading came in at -0.4% M/M (vs. +0.2% expected) but came as little surprise to the market as the earlier released regional figures also posted lower than forecast changes on the month. EURUSD is trading at 1.4650, marginally lower on the day and showing no noticeable trend since German election results; instead broad USD demand factors have driven most of the movement in currencies today.

EURCHF continues to tease around the 1.5100 level and will be one to watch for possible entry levels for long positions (exploiting SNB intervention), meanwhile the commodity space remains unchanged on the day with gold at $990 and silver at $16.05.

European Session: G20 Fails to Move Markets

September 28, 2009 9:41 AM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	JPY	0.29
	AUD	-0.18
	NZD	-0.41
	EUR	-0.44
	CAD	-0.46
	DKK	-0.48
	CHF	-0.53
	NOK	-0.54
	GBP	-0.59
	SEK	-0.79

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	10,009.52	- 2.49
Hang Seng Index	20,674.51	- 1.66
Shanghai Index	2,763.53	- 2.65
FTSE 100 Index	5,094.12	+ 0.23
DAX Index	5,634.03	+ 0.94
SMI Index	6,219.57	- 0.27
S&P future	1,040.60	- 0.04

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	988.73	- 0.22
Silver	15.86	- 1.21
VIX	25.61	+ 2.64
Crude wti	65.68	- 0.51
USD Index	76.96	+ 0.19

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

German Preliminary CPI, % m/m (y/y)	-0.2 ,-0.1	0.2 (0.0)	EUR / --
German Preliminary HICP, % m/m (y/y) Sep	-0.1 (-0.2	0.4 (0.0)	EUR / --
ECB President Trichet testifies before the Economi	--	--	EUR / 14.30

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8815
R 1: 0.8790
CURRENT: 0.8624
S 1: 0.8527
S 2: 0.8380

USDCAD
R 2: 1.1125
R 1: 1.1100
CURRENT: 1.0984
S 1: 1.0860
S 2: 1.0710

EURJPY
R 2: 133.85
R 1: 132.10
CURRENT: 130.80
S 1: 129.36
S 2: 127.82

USDMXN
R 2: 13.790
R 1: 13.662
CURRENT: 13.851
S 1: 13.465
S 2: 13.325

Market Brief

FX markets were quiet at the start of the week, with only the JPY seeing any real activity. Asian equity markets are currently trading lower and European futures are looking to follow. Risk appetite declined and with it risk correlated trades. The EURUSD traded down to 1.4600, while the AUDJPY slipped to 76.60. JPY witnessed some decent demand, pushing USDJPY briefly below 88.50. Commodities are basically were we left them on Friday, with crude wti at $65.57 and spot gold $989.65. The G20 final communiqué from Pittsburg didn’t provide any significant agreements. The tone seemed to be positive regarding the global economic recovery, as leaders declared efforts hard “worked” and recovery had “clearly taken hold.” In the realm of FX policy makers provided the vague words "undertake monetary policies consistent with price stability in the context of market oriented exchange rates that reflect underlying economic fundamentals." Not quite the solid decisive agreement leaders had promised earlier in the week.

In Germany Chancellor, Angela Merkel’s, election victory was briefly EUR positive but the news was quickly faded. The margin of victory was widen enough for Merkel to change coalition partners to pro-business Free Democrats, which would allow her to pursue an agenda of tax cuts and labor market deregulations.

Perhaps the biggest story in FX is the unrelenting strength of the JPY. We believe the Yen strength is supported by the decline in risk appetite. Finance Minister Fujii’s comments over the weekend, in which he reiterated that the government would not intervene in FX, and USDJPY moves as 'not abnormal' and finally repatriation flow from local exporters. IMM commitment of traders showed JPY longs were extended further over the week. Net JPY long positions were increased to 46k from the previous week's level of 37k. Today, G10 economic release will be limited to German and CPI figures. Barring any significant deviation (highly unlikely) trading should be subdued.

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