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Late European Session
September 25, 2009 4:49 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 1.21 |  | | | NOK | 0.41 | | | | EUR | 0.15 | | | | CHF | 0.12 | | | | DKK | 0.10 | |  | AUD | -0.06 | | | NZD | -0.13 | | | SEK | -0.18 | | | CAD | -0.21 | | | GBP | -0.54 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'111.76 | + 0.64 | | DAX Index | 5'595.63 | - 0.17 | | SMI Index | 6'232.06 | - 0.69 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'049.08 | - 0.16 | | DJIA Index | 9'695.65 | - 0.12 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10'280.00 | - 1.72 | | Hang Seng Futures | 20'938.00 | - 0.13 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 990.75 | - 0.34 | | Silver | 16.17 | - 0.55 | | VIX | 25.20 | + 1.00 | | Crude wti | 66.39 | + 0.76 | | USD Index | 76.64 | - 0.32 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No further releases today | - | - | -/- |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8943
R 1: 0.8815
CURRENT: 0.8655
S 1: 0.8590
S 2: 0.8530
EURJPY
R 2: 135.50
R 1: 134.50
CURRENT: 132.15
S 1: 131.30
S 2: 131.00
USDMXN
R 2: 13.580
R 1: 13.545
CURRENT: 13.496
S 1: 13.400
S 2: 13.225
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Market Brief |
Not a great deal going on in the market today, equity markets are mixed across Europe and the US indices have traded sideways since the open. The only real events of the session have been US data releases which have largely disappointed. Durable goods orders were -2.4% on the month vs forecasts for a 0.4% rise which has kept commodity markets subdued after yesterday’s slump. New Home Sales were also disappointing; 0.7% M/M vs forecasts of 1.6% - echoing the miss in Existing Homesales forecasts yesterday. Currencies have largely been driven by technicals as EURUSD has toyed with the downside support levels (currently 1.4685) and EURCHF has teetered around 1.5100 intervention levels. USDJPY is the notable mover on the day, down over a percent, likely linked to risk aversion, and is currently trading at 90.10.
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The Dollar Rebounds On Fed Stimulus Reduction
September 25, 2009 9:01 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.75 | | | | NZD | 0.54 | | | | AUD | 0.46 | | | | SEK | 0.35 | | | | CHF | 0.20 | | | | NOK | 0.17 | | | | EUR | 0.16 | | | | DKK | 0.15 | | | | CAD | 0.13 | | | GBP | -0.42 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10'265.98 | - 2.64 | | Hang Seng Index | 20'932.98 | - 0.56 | | Shanghai Index | 2'839.39 | - 0.50 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5'079.27 | - 1.17 | | DAX Index | 5'605.21 | - 1.70 | | SMI Index | 6'275.44 | - 1.17 | | S&P future | 1'048.70 | + 0.42 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 996.51 | + 0.24 | | Silver | 16.22 | - 0.20 | | VIX | 24.95 | + 6.22 | | Crude wti | 66.39 | + 0.76 | | USD Index | 76.66 | - 0.30 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| E16: Retail PMI, index Sep | - | 47.1 | EUR/08:00 | | E16: M3, % y/y (3mma) Aug | 2.7 (3.1) | 3.0 (3.4) | EUR/08:00 | | E16: Private sector loans, % y/y Aug | - | 0.6 | EUR/08:00 | | UK: Business investment, % q/q Q2 | -10.4 | -10.4 | GBP/08:30 | | UK: Business investment, % y/y Q2 | -18.4 | -18.4 | GBP/08:30 | | US: Durable goods orders, % m/m (y/y) Aug | 0.1(-17.9) | 5.1(-22.5) | USD/12:30 | | US: Core capital goods orders, % m/m Aug | - | -0.3 | USD/12:30 | | US: U. Michigan consumer sentiment, index Sep | 70.0 | 70.2 | USD/13:55 | | US: New home sales, % m/m Aug | 1.6 | 9.6 | USD/14:00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8943
R 1: 0.8815
CURRENT: 0.8685
S 1: 0.8590
S 2: 0.8530
EURJPY
R 2: 135.50
R 1: 134.50
CURRENT: 133.10
S 1: 132.50
S 2: 132.25
USDMXN
R 2: 13.580
R 1: 13.545
CURRENT: 13.494
S 1: 13.400
S 2: 13.225
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Market Brief |
The USD was back with a vengeance yesterday as the DXY rocketed to 77.05 from a low of 76.09; triggered by headlines that the Fed would be scaling back some of its emergency lending programs. Prior to the announcement the majors had been lacking much direction, but by the end of the European session equities were lower across the board, EURUSD was testing support at 1.4680, and commodities in particular suffered a crushing day in the face of USD strength. Crude was battered for a second day, this time led by gasoline inventory data which revealed stockpiles grew by ten times as much as consensus forecasts; crude front contract was down 4.5% to end the day at $66. Meanwhile gold plunged from a high around $1018 down to $994 (currently $996), and silver dipped 3.5% to its lowest levels in 2 weeks at $16.25 (still languishing at that level this morning). With USD bears having had the upper hand for much of the last couple of weeks, we believe this sharp move will have stung, and feel that further USD shorts could be shaken out of the market if EUR breaks below 1.4680.
Taking a step back slightly, the morning session had been largely uneventful on the data front, German IFO numbers showed a mild improvement on the month but were lower than forecasts. The biggest move (and notable exception to the directionless trading) was GBP which suffered a massive slide after BoE Governor King was quoted as saying the drop in the pound was “very helpful” in rebalancing the UK economy. GBPUSD tumbled through support levels down to 1.6060 and the rout has continued this morning, touching a low of 1.5920 before take some slight respite and currently trading around 1.5980. EURGBP has capitalized on this plunge by breaking back above 0.9100, and is currently enjoying the heady heights of 0.9180.
The afternoon session was largely directed by the Fed TAF announcement, but a notable data release out of the US was the Existing Home Sales number for August; expectations were for a 2.1% rise but the actual number could only muster a dismal -2.7% (after an increase of 7.2% last month), adding fuel to the fire in terms of USD strength and commodity weakness. Claims data was mixed, with better than expected readings on the week, but with upward revisions to the week prior.
Asian equities have traded heavier today (Nikkei down over 2.5%), playing catch-up from yesterday’s session, but European equity futures are pointing to a marginally higher open. Today’s data calendar sees Eurozone M3 and UK Total Business Investment Data from Europe, while the US session will provide Durable Goods Orders, U.Mich, and New Home Sales. Durable goods Orders are expected to post a 0.4% increase in August, while New Home Sales are forecast to rise 1.6% - considering yesterday’s big miss on Existing Home Sales, will be worth watching this one in case of a further downside surprise that could trigger flight to saftey USD buying.
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Asian Session: Yen Strengthens on Risk Averse Positions Ahead of G20 Meeting
September 25, 2009 6:38 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| Jpy | -0.06 | | | Chf | -0.50 | | | Dkk | -0.66 | | | Eur | -0.68 | | | Nzd | -0.71 | | | Aud | -0.81 | | | Cad | -1.18 | | | Nok | -1.21 | | | Gbp | -1.37 | | | Sek | -1.43 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10'278.56 | - 2.52 | | Hang Seng Index | 20'906.20 | - 0.69 | | Shanghai Index | 2'814.85 | - 1.36 | | KOSPI Index | 1'669.12 | - 1.46 | | FTSE futures | 5'056.00 | - 1.01 | | CAC futures | 3'758.50 | - 1.67 | | DAX futures | 5'613.50 | - 1.45 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 66.45 | + 0.85 | | Gold | 996.67 | + 0.26 | | Silver | 16.22 | - 0.25 | | USD Index | 76.86 | - 0.04 | | VIX | 24.95 | + 6.22 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Exports | 3.45B | 3.34B | NZ/6:45 | | Imports | 3.10B | 3.18B | NZ/6:45 | | BOJ Minutes for August | | | JN/7:50 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8829
R 1: 0.8739
CURRENT: 0.8650
S 1: 0.8590
S 2: 0.8531
USDJPY
R 2: 92.36
R 1: 91.82
CURRENT: 90.77
S 1: 90.54
S 2: 87.81
NZDUSD
R 2: 0.7313
R 1: 0.7236
CURRENT: 0.7159
S 1: 0.7116
S 2: 0.7074
USDSGD
R 2: 1.4277
R 1: 1.4232
CURRENT: 1.4179
S 1: 1.4123
S 2: 1.4059
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Market Brief |
Investors began migrating funds back into safe haven assets based on growing speculation regulators will clampdown on risk taking by financial institutions. Some of the reform suggest that capital requirements will be raised causing banks to align compensation more consistently with overall risk. The repatratriation in Japanese corporate funds continues to be a key theme supporting yen strength, as firms are expected to keep diverting assets back home by the closure of the fiscal year. Equity markets are in the red globally, with the Nikkei225 suffereing a 2.55% drop and the Hang Seng weakening by 0.80%. Commodities continue to deleverage as well with oil trading at $66bbl and gold back below $1,000oz to $996.80oz. Bond yields dropped as well, with the Japanese 10yr off by 1bp to 1.295% and the Australian 10 yr lower by 8bps to 5.202%. The technical story shows extreme downside pressure and Traders looking for buyback opportunities may want to proceed with a caution, as support levels continue to be broken.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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