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Late European Session
September 24, 2009 4:21 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 0.44 |  | | | JPY | 0.30 | | | | AUD | 0.14 | |  | CHF | -0.02 | | | NOK | -0.06 | | | DKK | -0.10 | | | EUR | -0.11 | | | SEK | -0.29 | | | CAD | -1.05 | | | GBP | -1.55 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE futures | 5'145.63 | + 0.12 | | DAX futures | 5'710.43 | + 0.15 | | SMI Index | 6'331.24 | - 0.29 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'056.19 | - 0.44 | | DJIA Index | 9'742.43 | - 0.06 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10'450.00 | + 1.06 | | Hang Seng Futures | 20'965.00 | - 2.80 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'007.63 | - 0.08 | | Silver | 16.64 | - 1.16 | | VIX | 24.50 | + 4.30 | | Crude wti | 67.25 | - 2.49 | | USD Index | 76.48 | + 0.56 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No further releases today | - | - | -/- |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8943
R 1: 0.8815
CURRENT: 0.8695
S 1: 0.8590
S 2: 0.8530
EURJPY
R 2: 135.50
R 1: 134.50
CURRENT: 133.95
S 1: 133.40
S 2: 132.47
USDMXN
R 2: 13.545
R 1: 13.465
CURRENT: 13.410
S 1: 13.120
S 2: 13.139
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Market Brief |
It’s been a mixed session for the majors since last night’s USD rally; the major mover has been GBP which has crumbled in the face of comments from BoE Governor King that the drop in the pound is helpful to rebalancing the UK economy. These comments were echoed by MPC member Dale in a speech this afternoon, forcing GBPUSD down over a percent on the day at 1.6100, and correspondingly sending EURGBP surging higher, currently 0.9145.
Equities have had an indecisive day and currencies have largely been swayed in tandem; IFO reports out of Germany were pretty much a non-event; Business Climate rose on the month to 91.3 (90.5 prior), but less than the markets were hoping for (consensus 92.0). Since the US open, we’ve had Jobless Claims which were mixed on the week, both continuing and intial claims were lower than forecast, but there were upward revisions to last week’s numbers. There were also headlines that the Fed would be scaling the size of the TAF program which sent the USD rallying from 76.10 up to current levels at 76.40, and paring back equity market gains. Existing Home Sales for Aug came out at -2.7% vs forecasts for a 2.1% rise (7.2% in Jul), rattling investors and sending equity markets south which only added extra fuel to the USD rally.
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USD Rebounds After FOMC Signals End Of QE
September 24, 2009 8:53 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.61 | | | | AUD | 0.47 | | | | NZD | 0.32 | | | | NOK | 0.17 | | | | GBP | 0.10 | | | | CAD | 0.05 | | | | EUR | 0.02 | | | | SEK | 0.02 | | | | DKK | 0.00 | | | | CHF | 0.00 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10'544.22 | + 1.67 | | Hang Seng Index | 21'002.54 | - 2.75 | | Shanghai Index | 2'868.82 | + 0.92 | | FTSE futures | 5'139.37 | - 0.06 | | DAX futures | 5'702.05 | - 0.13 | | S&P future | 1'057.10 | - 0.17 | | DJIA futures | 9'700.00 | - 0.17 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'012.90 | + 0.45 | | Silver | 16.88 | + 0.31 | | VIX | 23.49 | + 1.78 | | Crude wti | 68.49 | - 0.70 | | USD Index | 76.29 | + 0.32 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Germany: IFO business climate, index Sep | 92.0 | 90.5 | EUR/08:00 | | Germany: IFO current assessment, index Sep | 88.0 | 86.1 | EUR/08:00 | | Germany: IFO business expectations, index Sep | 96.5 | 95.0 | EUR/08:00 | | US: Initial jobless claims, thous (4wk ma) 19 Sep | - | 545 (563) | USD/12:30 | | US: Existing home sales, % Aug | 2.1 | 7.2 | USD/14:00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8943
R 1: 0.8815
CURRENT: 0.8740
S 1: 0.8590
S 2: 0.8530
EURJPY
R 2: 135.50
R 1: 134.50
CURRENT: 133.65
S 1: 133.40
S 2: 132.47
USDMXN
R 2: 13.545
R 1: 13.408
CURRENT: 13.366
S 1: 13.120
S 2: 13.139
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Market Brief |
Yesterday’s glut of central bank activity made for an eventful day in the FX markets. The BoE minutes was first up, with a rosier picture of the UK economy than last week’s events would have suggested; the MPC voted unanimously to keep rates on hold at 0.5%, but more importantly the decision to maintain QE at 175bn was also a 9-0 vote. The lack of dissenters in favour of higher levels of QE gave a boost to GBP which rallied to the top of its downtrend channel around 1.6450 and was amongst the biggest gainers against the USD ahead of the BoE.
The Norges Bank meeting was no less market-moving, as although they decided to keep rates on hold at 1.25%, it was revealed that they had actually discussed a rate hike this month. USDNOK fell over a percent on the day to 5.7710; it is now expected that an October rate rise is a done deal and we anticipate further NOK strength as the paths of monetary policy diverge between different central banks.
But the centrepiece event was of course the FOMC, and the key take away news was that QE would be extended until March but there would be no increase in the size of the programme; a move intended to slow the rate of purchases and smooth out the transition to stimulus withdrawal. Initially the DXY spiked down to 75.82 on the news of the QE extension, but the USD weakness could not keep its momentum and it corrected sharply to finish higher on the day at 76.40. EURUSD fell from its high at 1.4844 down to current 1.4730 levels after the meeting, and GBPUSD similarly failed to break through resistance around 1.6460 and is now trading at 1.6365. This improved outlook and the realisation that the end of QE is on the horizon, is likely to give USD continued fuel for a rebound.
The main news in commodity markets was the plunge in crude prices (front contract down nearly 5%!), after inventory data surprised with a massive surge in supply. Gold was largely trading inversely with the USD; but today is only modestly lower than yesterday’s open $1012, silver is still subdued around the $16.85 levels.
Today’s main data out of Europe will be the German IFO; there is expected to be a pick-up in Business Climate sentiment (92.0 exp., 90.5 prior), but we believe that scenario would be unlikely to stem any resurgences of USD strength today. US Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales are due later this afternoon, the latter is likely to be the most watched (2.1% exp. Vs 7.2% prior) – any positive improvement in the will likely be a USD positive.
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Asian Session: Equity Indexes Fall on Slumping Commodity Performance Dollar Mixed Overall
September 24, 2009 7:05 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Nok | 0.41 | | | | Jpy | 0.40 | | | Dkk | -0.35 | | | Eur | -0.37 | | | Aud | -0.38 | | | Chf | -0.38 | | | Sek | -0.50 | | | Gbp | -0.57 | | | Nzd | -0.63 | | | Cad | -0.66 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10'494.65 | + 1.20 | | Hang Seng Futures | 21'015.36 | - 2.69 | | Shanghai Index | 2'803.97 | - 1.36 | | KOSPI Index | 1,684.91 | - 1.59 | | FTSE futures | 5'107.50 | - 0.23 | | CAC futures | 3'822.50 | - 0.01 | | DAX futures | 5'696.00 | - 0.22 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 68.30 | - 0.97 | | Gold | 1'010.40 | + 0.20 | | Silver | 16.77 | - 0.36 | | USD Index | 76.35 | + 0.39 | | VIX | 23.49 | + 1.78 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Merchandise Trade Exports | -36.5 | -36.5 | JN/07:50 | | All Industry Activity Index | 0.8% | 0.1% | JN/12:30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R3: 0.8929
R2: 0.8827
R1 0.8762
C 0.8702
S1 0.8660
S2 0.8623
S3 0.8521
USDJPY
R3: 93.21
R2: 92.16
R1: 91.72
C: 90.98
S1: 90.67
S2: 90.06
S3: 89.01
NZDUSD
R3: 0.7492
R2: 0.7361
R1: 0.7273
C: 0.7199
S1: 0.7148
S2: 0.7100
S3: 0.6969
USDSGD
R3: 1.4264
R2: 1.4192
R1: 1.4164
C: 1.4161
S1: 1.4092
S2: 1.4048
S3: 1.3976
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Market Brief |
Asian currencies continue to trade in tandem with bias regarding a global economic recovery. The Asian Development Bank upgraded its forecasts for economic growth lifting emerging market currencies like the Thai Baht. Price action has been fairly volatile in both the majors and exotics due to increased volatility and sensitivity to event risk. A consistent theme embedded in the recovery story is a prolonged period of dollar weakness, which suggest that many currencies like UsdSgd and UsdKrw. UsdJpy managed to reach a one week high based on expectations that the yen will benefit from capital inflows through repatriation of funds.
In the near term, economic data out of Japan was slighlty better than expected overall. Both merchandise exports and imports declined less than projected, but were still negative at -36 and -41.3 respectively. Japanese Investors are back from holiday and the return in volume was helped stock markets rise in region. Most of the other Asian equity indexes suffered losses stemming from commodity stocks which are seeing deleveraging due to slumping commodity prices.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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