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Late European Session
September 23, 2009 4:16 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NOK | 0.88 |  | | | NZD | 0.61 | | | | GBP | 0.53 | | | | CHF | 0.00 | |  | DKK | -0.05 | | | AUD | -0.08 | | | EUR | -0.09 | | | SEK | -0.18 | | | CAD | -0.26 | | | JPY | -0.36 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| FTSE 100 Index | 5'168.65 | + 0.51 | | DAX futures | 5'722.32 | + 0.23 | | SMI Index | 6'379.83 | + 0.62 | | S&P 500 Index | 1'072.43 | + 0.07 | | DJIA Index | 9'832.67 | + 0.03 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10'390.00 | + 0.48 | | Hang Seng Futures | 21'570.00 | - 0.56 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1'012.04 | - 0.23 | | Silver | 17.00 | - 0.77 | | VIX | 23.07 | - 0.04 | | Crude wti | 71.31 | - 0.63 | | USD Index | 76.15 | + 0.04 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| FOMC interest rate announcement, % Sep | 0.25 | 0.25 | USD/18:15 | | New Zealand trade balance NZD bn Aug | -0.273 | -0.273 | NZD/22:45 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8943
R 1: 0.8815
CURRENT: 0.8720
S 1: 0.8590
S 2: 0.8530
EURJPY
R 2: 136.10
R 1: 135.49
CURRENT: 135.05
S 1: 133.40
S 2: 132.47
USDMXN
R 2: 13.545
R 1: 13.408
CURRENT: 13.3880
S 1: 13.120
S 2: 13.139
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Market Brief |
It’s all been about the central bank releases in today’s session, and first off were the BoE’s minutes from the September meeting. It was actually far more upbeat reading than anticipated; the decision to keep rates on hold was, as predicted, a 9-0 vote, but crucially the MPC were also unanimous in maintaining QE at a level of 175bn - no dissenters in favour of an increase. The GBP was higher against its major counterparts and has held its ground above 1.6400 throughout the day (currently 1.6425), but has struggled to push through resistance in the 1.6450 level.
An even bigger surprise was to come from the Norges Bank who, despite keeping rates on hold, revealed that they had considered hiking rates in this meeting. USDNOK dropped nearly a percent on the announcement (low 5.7721) as commentators suggested an October hike now seems a done deal, but the currency pair has since ground back up slightly (currently 5.8000) as the dollar has staged a slight recovery.
The DXY started the morning languishing below 76.00, but has gradually climbed higher to a respectable 76.20, presumably as investors pare back short positions ahead of the FOMC tonight. Equity markets are mixed but only moderately higher/lower on the day, while commodities are tracking the USD moves and are slightly lower on the day (gold currently $1011, silver $16.98)
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European Session: Market Wait for BoE Minutes then FOMC
September 23, 2009 10:27 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 0.62 | | | | NOK | 0.35 | | | | AUD | 0.26 | | | | JPY | 0.22 | | | | CHF | 0.19 | | | | DKK | 0.15 | | | | SEK | 0.13 | | | | EUR | 0.12 | | | | CAD | 0.10 | | | GBP | -0.03 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10.370.54 | - 0.70 | | Hang Seng Index | 21,589.24 | - 0.51 | | FTSE 100 Index | 5,172.24 | + 0.57 | | DAX Index | 5,743.29 | + 0.59 | | SMI Index | 6,357.49 | + 0.26 | | S&P future | 1,069.80 | + 0.23 | | DJIA futures | 9,785.00 | + 0.14 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 1,015.77 | + 0.13 | | Silver | 17.18 | + 0.23 | | VIX | 23.08 | - 4.07 | | Crude wti | 71.67 | - 0.12 | | USD Index | 76.05 | - 0.09 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Japan: Public holiday | -- | -- | -- | | BoE MPC minutes, vote | 9-0 | 9-0 | GBP / 08.30 | | Norges bank interest rate announcement, % Sep | 1.25 | 1.25 | NOK / 12.00 | | FOMC interest rate announcement, % Sep | 0-0.25 | 0-0.25 | USD / 18.15 | | New Zealand trade balance NZD bn Aug | -0.273 | -0.51 | NZD/ 22.45 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8943
R 1: 0.8815
CURRENT: 0.8756
S 1: 0.8590
S 2: 0.8530
EURJPY
R 2: 136.10
R 1: 135.49
CURRENT: 134.64
S 1: 133.40
S 2: 132.47
USDMXN
R 2: 13.545
R 1: 13.408
CURRENT: 13.345
S 1: 13.120
S 2: 13.139
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Market Brief |
Both the US and Asian session were relatively uneventful, as markets patiently wait for tonight’s FOMC meeting. However, the few minutes of excitement came on the back of the strong New Zealand GDP figures, which sent the USD tumbling. The EURUSD briefly spiked above 1.4840 before settling back down to the 1.4800 handle. The NZDUSD climbed to new yearly highs at 0.7313 on the stronger economic data. After a positive start, Asian regional indexes are now trading lower but European index futures are mixed and noncommittal. The gorilla in the room is clearly the FOMC meeting where we don’t expect the Fed to communicate a near term reversal in massively accommodating monetary policy, but it could extend asset purchasing program. Overall, should the Fed stay within market expectations (especially by steering away from comments on timetable for an exit strategy) we see the USD weakness to continue.
The big news overnight was the New Zealand Q2 GDP which printed +0.1%, beating analyst expectations of -0.2%. This positive economic data continued a string of good news from the domestic economy. We still expected the RNBZ to keep rates unchanged at 2.50% at the October meeting and through the Q2 2010.
The Norges Bank will announce its rate decision today and markets expect the central bank to hold them steady at 1.25%. The markets expect the decision will reinforce expectations that they will be one of (if not) the first G10 central banks to begin tightening. Money markets are currently fully priced for a 25bp hike by year-end, with some probability of an overall 50bp of tightening. The real risk to the NOK today is if the central bank is less hawkish than the market expects. But overall, we believe the NOK should continue to be well supported, as the Norges bank has been less vocal (than their commodity bloc peers) in regard to the tightening effects of a stronger NOK. Norway Unemployment printed better than expected at 3.0% vs. 3.1% expected.
In the UK, BoE minutes will grab the spot light. While markets widely expect a 9-0 vote for the policy rate decision from the latest BoE meeting, there is more uncertainty regarding the vote on the size of the QE program. At the August meeting, Mervyn King, David Miles and Tim Besley dissented in favor of a larger £200bn program and markets are expecting a 7-2 vote. We believe the sterling will remain weak before next months more important monetary policy meeting and the MPC to provide greater clarity into the direction of their QE program.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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