Daily Forex Snapshots

European Session: The Dollar Shows It Can Still Put Up A Fight

September 21, 2009 9:01 AM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	DKK	-0.33
	EUR	-0.35
	CHF	-0.38
	NOK	-0.47
	CAD	-0.50
	AUD	-0.60
	GBP	-0.65
	NZD	-0.61
	SEK	-0.66
	JPY	-0.86

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Hang Seng Index	21'602.09	- 0.10
Shanghai Index	2'966.61	+ 0.13
FTSE futures	5'172.89	+ 0.17
DAX futures	5'703.83	- 0.48
SMI Index	6'325.15	+ 0.12
S&P future	1'057.40	- 0.34
DJIA futures	9'711.00	- 0.23

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	1'001.40	- 0.62
Silver	16.59	- 2.40
VIX	23.92	+ 1.14
Crude wti	71.37	- 0.93
USD Index	76.89	+ 0.61

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

US: Leading indicators, %m/m (y/y)	0.7 (1.7)	0.6 (0.2)	USD/14:00
New Zealand: Current a/c bal nsa NZD bn	-1.72	-1.25	NZD/22:45

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8860
R 1: 0.8800
CURRENT: 0.8625
S 1: 0.8595
S 2: 0.8545

USDCAD
R 2: 1.0870
R 1: 1.0770
CURRENT: 1.0740
S 1: 1.0610
S 2: 1.0525

EURJPY
R 2: 136.00
R 1: 135.90
CURRENT: 135.10
S 1: 133.90
S 2: 131.05

USDMXN
R 2: 13.570
R 1: 13.545
CURRENT: 13.2830
S 1: 13.165
S 2: 13.110

Market Brief

It’s a slow start to the week with Japan out on holiday until Thursday and limited data on the docket for today. Overnight the rest of Asia’s stock markets have put in a mixed performance, the Shanghai Composite was the biggest mover; down a little over 1%, continuing the move from Friday as 10 listed companies announced they would start to take subscriptions this week.

AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales for Aug posted a +0.3% gain (from -6.9% in the month prior), but the AUDUSD is trading slightly lower on the day (0.8640) as the currency markets are largely following the broader USD move higher this morning (DXY trading at 76.75) on speculation about this Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Although the universal consensus is for an unchanged rate decision, market chatter is that policy-makers may signal an end to QE, a likely positive for the currency as a first step to normalization of fiscal and monetary policy. This is likely to be even more bearish for GBPUSD which has crumbled in early trading down to 1.6160 despite benign houseprice data released earlier.

Commodities are also lower at the start of the week with the revival of USD strength, gold is hovering at the supoort level of $1000/oz while silver is trading back down in early trading to $16.60.

The only only major release for the rest of the day will be USD Leading Indicators for Aug, we are expecting a +0.7% rise after last month’s +0.6% reading, however the likelihood is that US data will take a back seat in the run-up to Wednesday’s main event. Looking forward to the remainder of the week, the schedule is punctuated with some noteworthy releases and central bank activity: Tuesday sees Switzerland’s SECO Economic Forecasts and CAD Retail Sales (Jul), while Wednesday is a central bank extravaganza of BoE Minutes and Norges Bank rate decision, followed by the aforementioned FOMC in the evening. Thursday sees the start of the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, while rounding out the week on Friday we'll see minutes from the BoJ meeting, and US New Homes Sales (Aug).

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