Daily Forex Snapshots

European Session

September 17, 2009 9:34 AM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	SEK	0.46
	NOK	0.41
	AUD	0.31
	CAD	0.28
	GBP	0.28
	EUR	0.23
	DKK	0.20
	NZD	0.14
	CHF	0.13
	JPY	-0.02

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	10'443.80	+ 1.68
Hang Seng Index	21'887.11	+ 2.26
Shanghai Index	3'060.26	+ 2.02
FTSE futures	5'124.13	+ 1.63
DAX futures	5'700.26	+ 1.27
SMI Index	6'299.91	+ 1.40
S&P future	1'068.00	+ 1.69

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	1'021.98	+ 0.46
Silver	17.64	+ 1.39
VIX	23.69	+ 1.15
Crude wti	72.55	+ 0.06
USD Index	76.09	- 0.21

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

UK: Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Aug	0.1 (2.6)	0.4 (3.3)	GBP/8:30
E16: Trade balance, € bn (sa) Jul	1.2	1.0	EUR/9:00
UK: CBI industrial trends, total orders, net bal	-50	-54	GBP/11:00
Canada: CPI, %y/y Aug	-0.6	-0.9	CAD/11:00
Canada: Bank of Canada core CPI, %y/y Aug	1.6	1.8	CAD/11:00
SNB Interest rate announcement, % Q3	0.25	0.25	CHF/12:00
Canada: Leading Indicators, % m/m Aug	0.5	0.4	CAD/12:30
US: Initial jobless claims, thous (4wk ma) 12Sep	561 (565)	550 (570)	USD/12:30
US: Housing starts, k Aug	594	581	USD/12:30
US: Philadelphia Fed mfg index Sep	8.0	4.2	USD/14:00
US: Flow of Funds accounts Q2	-	-	USD/16:00

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8860
R 1: 0.8800
CURRENT: 0.8745
S 1: 0.8715
S 2: 0.8595

USDCAD
R 2: 1.0770
R 1: 1.0720
CURRENT: 1.0630
S 1: 1.0610
S 2: 1.0525

EURJPY
R 2: 135.00
R 1: 134.40
CURRENT: 133.70
S 1: 131.05
S 2: 129.35

USDMXN
R 2: 13.570
R 1: 13.545
CURRENT: 13.183
S 1: 13.165
S 2: 13.110

Market Brief

In Gold We Trust

The gold rush was on yesterday, with prices surging to $1020/oz as the USD weakened to its lowest levels in over a year, the DXY skimming 76.15. This coupled with higher than expected CPI readings in the Eurozone propelled EURUSD to its highest levels since Dec ’08 at 1.4737. Continued digression from safe-haven USD positions also precipitated new highs for AUD (0.8750) and NZD (0.7153), the two stand-out performers on the day. The infectious sense of optimism for the global outlook buoyed commodity markets and sent global equity markets higher virtually across the board.

US CPI came out a fraction above consensus (+0.4% M/M vs 0.3 exp.), but certainly nothing much in the figures is likely to have flustered policy-makers. Meanwhile , Industrial Production numbers for August surprised to the upside (0.8% M/M vs 06 exp.) and Capacity Utilisation also ticked higher, fuelling US stocks upwards as the Dow Jones traded at levels not seen since last October. Data out of Canada showed Manufacturing Data in Jul smashed consensus forecasts at 5.5% M/M (2.5 exp.), USDCAD ground lower to 1.0645 and we look for further downside today.

Asian equity markets have taken the baton with full zeal overnight, and further positives came from the BoJ who maintained rates at 0.1% but raised their assessment of the economy and saw signs of improvement in financial conditions. The bolstered outlook was credited to a rebound in exports; it will be interesting how rhetoric evolves considering Fujii’s comments yesterday about the merits of a strong yen.

Walking in this morning the USD is getting hammered, sharply lower against EUR and CAD in particular. The major event of the day will be the SNB rate announcement; although we are not looking for a change in the 3 month target from 0.25%, listen out for any explicit mention of the currency level – in particular, whether they address the continuing CHF-strength vs USD and GBP which have diverged from EURCHF since the central bank’s intervention.

UK Retail Sales for Aug will also highlight in the morning session, expect a modest increase of 0.1% M/M (0.4% prior). Later on, Canadian CPI for Aug (-0.6% Y/Y prev), will be followed by US Jobless Claims, Housing Starts and the Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index. It’s unlikely these data will prove significantly market-moving given the releases of the past couple of days but any positive numbers will likely be an excuse to continue to sell the USD.

ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.