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US Session: Dollar Rose Despite Jobless Claims As BoE Increases Bond Purchases
August 06, 2009 11:42 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
 | Aud | -0.13 | | | Chf | -0.32 | | | Sek | -0.33 | | | Nzd | -0.34 | | | Dkk | -0.40 | | | Eur | -0.41 | | | Jpy | -0.51 | | | Cad | -0.67 | | | Nok | -0.95 | | | Gbp | -1.21 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 9,256.26 | - 0.27 | | S&P 500 Index | 997.08 | - 0.56 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,973.16 | - 1.00 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10,450.00 | + 0.48 | | Hang Seng Futures | 20,870.00 | + 0.00 | | FTSE futures | 4,664.00 | + 0.91 | | SMI Futures | 5,965.00 | + 0.93 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 71.79 | - 0.25 | | Gold | 963.15 | - 0.01 | | Silver | 14.58 | + 0.14 | | USD Index | 78.05 | + 0.69 | | VIX | 25.67 | + 3.09 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8695
R 1: 0.8520
CURRENT: 0.8438
S 1: 0.8340
S 2: 0.8239
EURJPY
R 2: 139.22
R 1: 138.30
CURRENT: 137.12
S 1: 134.29
S 2: 132.80
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1013
R 1: 1.0935
CURRENT: 1.0709
S 1: 1.0633
S 2: 1.0545
USDMXN
R 2: 13.306
R 1: 13.225
CURRENT: 13.04
S 1: 12.987
S 2: 12.85
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Market Brief |
Investor sentiment remained risk averse as the dollar index rose .70% to 78.09 in anticipation of tomorrow’s unemployment data. The EurUsd was trading slightly lower near 1.43, while the UsdJpy appreciated 63pips to the mid-range of 95. The GbpUsd fell 206 pips intraday, keeping the cable near 1.675 as a point of resistance. Equity markets were down in the U.S. and Europe, with the Dow lower by .57% or -53.20pts and the FTSE lower by .52% or -24pts. The yield curve declined slightly with the 10yr up by 2bps and 30yr lower by 4bps. Commodities were lower across the board with oil finding support at $72bbl and gold dropping below $962oz.
The dollar and yen rallied during intraday trading as vigilant investors paused ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. unemployment and non-farm payroll numbers. Before the bell, investors were surprised by U.S. jobless claims which fell 38k to 550k versus estimates of 580k, and equity futures rose slightly in response. In the Euro Zone the ECB met today and decided to keep its refinancing rate unchanged. Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet commented that the “Pace of [economic] contraction is clearly slowing down” and the “remainder of 2009 will be weak but better than Q1.” In Germany, June factory orders increased the most in two years at 4.5% versus 0.6% expected, a strong signal that Europe could be on its way to recover from the recession. Should the euro break resistance at 1.4445, Technical Analysts are predicting a rally to 1.45. Doubt in the U.K. hurt bullish investors following today’s BoE meeting where officials said they felt the economic crisis was worse than it had initially projected and unexpectedly decided to increase its 125bln pound bond purchase program by 50bln pounds. The BoE’s benchmark interest rate was kept at .5% as expected, but after its monetary policy adjustment, the pound fell 125pips from its highest level since October to the upper range of 1.68.
Further central bank activity in Canada arose where the BoC decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at .25 last month, the BoE is expected to leave the number unchanged should the loonie rapidly rise in value and threaten to prolong the economy’s contraction. Following yesterday’s comments by Flaherty and unchanged WTI crude, the loonie was trading 76pips lower.
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Asian Session: Waiting on the BoE & ECB
August 06, 2009 8:58 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NOK | 0.47 |  | | | SEK | 0.47 | | | | AUD | 0.46 | | | EUR | -0.04 | | | DKK | -0.05 | | | NZD | -0.07 | | | CAD | -0.08 | | | GBP | -0.10 | | | CHF | -0.18 | | | JPY | -0.25 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10,388.09 | + 1.32 | | Hang Seng Index | 20,593.79 | + 0.48 | | Shanghai Index | 3,397.94 | - 0.89 | | FTSE futures | 4,622.00 | - 0.30 | | DAX futures | 5,392.50 | + 0.62 | | SMI Futures | 5,943.00 | + 0.55 | | DJIA futures | 9,246.00 | + 0.01 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 963.88 | + 0.04 | | Silver | 14.73 | + 0.20 | | VIX | 24.90 | + 0.04 | | Crude wti | 71.60 | - 0.51 | | USD Index | 77.57 | + 0.07 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| NBC interest rate announcement, % Aug | 1.50 | 1.50 | CZK / --- | | Halifax house price index, % m/m (3m y/y) Jul | 0.6, -12.3 | -0.5, -14. | GBP / 08.00 | | Germany: New manufacturing orders, % m/m (y/y) Jun | 0.8^,-26.5 | 4.4, -28.8 | EUR / 10.00 | | BoE Bank Rate decision, % Aug | 0.50 | 0.50 | GBP / 11.00 | | ECB rate announcement, % Aug | 1.00 | 1.00 | EUR / 11.45 | | ECB press conference | -- | -- | EUR / 12.30 | | Initial jobless claims, thous (4wk mvg avg) 01-Aug | 595 (566) | 584 (559) | USD / 12.30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8695
R 1: 0.8520
CURRENT: 0.8438
S 1: 0.8340
S 2: 0.8239
EURJPY
R 2: 139.22
R 1: 138.30
CURRENT: 137.12
S 1: 134.29
S 2: 132.80
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1013
R 1: 1.0935
CURRENT: 1.0709
S 1: 1.0633
S 2: 1.0545
USDMXN
R 2: 13.306
R 1: 13.225
CURRENT: 13.04
S 1: 12.987
S 2: 12.85
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Market Brief |
The Dollar gained against the major currencies as weaker economic data from the US lowered risk appetite amid expectations from the central bank (ECB, BOE) rate decisions due today. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite showed a reading of 46.4 lower than expectations of 48 while the factory orders rose 0.4%, a rise for the third straight month. The non-manufacturing sector which comprises of almost 90% of the total economy declined showing concerns over unemployment and that the stimulus packages were more favorable for the manufacturing sector which had posted better results. Also released was the ADP employment figure which showed that the US cut 371,000 jobs against expectations of a cut of 350,000 pushing for concerns of a rising unemployment rate expected to be 9.6%.
The equity markets feLl over the employment data over concerns of a slower recovery from the recession. The Dow index closed at 9280 down 0.4% from the previous close while the S&P 500 closed at 1002 down 0.3%. The Euro was mixed ahead of the rate decision moving in the range of 1.4370 and 1.4440 despite better than expected PMI data showing a reading of 47 against previous figure of 44.6. The pound too declined to 1.6930 after reaching highs of 1.7043 over concerns of the BOE adding additional bond purchase plans but later moved up above 1.7030 as some analysts predicting that the BOE will halt bond purchase plans after better than expected housing, services and manufacturing data showed signs that the economy is improving.
Today the important news to note would be the much awaited rate decision by the ECB and the BOE which are expected to keep rates unchanged at 1% and 0.5% respectively although the conference following the decision would hold the key as the central bank governors would make statements on the economic outlook and any further stimulus packages if any. From the US, the initial jobless claims would be the most important as higher job loss reading could lead to dollar strengthening as investors resort to risk aversion.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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