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US Session: Light Snap Tames Bulls As Profit Taking and Mixed Economic Data Keep Markets Flat
August 04, 2009 10:30 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Nzd | 0.46 |  | | | Aud | 0.25 | | | | Gbp | 0.04 | | | | Jpy | 0.02 | | | | Eur | 0.03 | |  | Dkk | -0.10 | | | Chf | -0.13 | | | Nok | -0.57 | | | Cad | -0.69 | | | Sek | -0.89 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 9,320.19 | + 0.36 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,001.50 | + 0.08 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,625.00 | - 0.11 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10,330.00 | + 0.68 | | Hang Seng Futures | 20,745.00 | + 0.02 | | FTSE futures | 4,650.00 | - 0.02 | | SMI Index | 5,954.00 | - 0.22 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 71.30 | - 0.39 | | Gold | 965.55 | + 0.92 | | Silver | 14.60 | + 2.35 | | USD Index | 77.72 | + 0.19 | | VIX | 24.96 | - 2.35 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8695
R 1: 0.8520
CURRENT: 0.8407
S 1: 0.8340
S 2: 0.8239
EURJPY
R 2: 139.22
R 1: 138.30
CURRENT: 136.62
S 1: 134.30
S 2: 132.80
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1012
R 1: 1.0935
CURRENT: 1.0704
S 1: 1.0547
S 2: 1.0440
USDMXN
R 2: 13.415
R 1: 13.305
CURRENT: 13.1227
S 1: 13.060
S 2: 12.987
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Market Brief |
Today’s trading began with a minor snap in the two day risk rally, sending the dollar rising against most majors as investors took profits. The EurUsd traded sideways finding support at 1.44, while the UsdJpy appreciated 20pips to the mid-range of 95. The GbpUsd was unchanged with .07% intraday growth, keeping the cable near 1.69 as a point of resistance. Equity markets rose in the U.S. but fell in Europe, with the Dow up by .23% or 21.79pts and the FTSE lower by .5% or 23.25pts. The yield curve steepened with 10 and 30 year bonds positive by .089 and .102 respectively. Commodities were mixed with oil finding support at $71.5bbl and gold moving above $970oz; on track to meet $1000oz medium term.
Investor optimism died down in the early session as analysts speculated that high yielding currencies such as the euro were overbought versus the dollar. After reaching 77.45 yesterday, which was the lowest level since shortly after the Lehman collapse, the dollar index retraced to 77.75 overnight as investors moved into safe haven currencies like the USD and JPY ahead of economic data. U.S. consumer spending arrived positive at .4 versus .3 expected, however analysts felt the high number was likely skewed by the recent climb in crude prices. Other figures of importance included U.S. personal income which came in worse than expected at -1.3 versus -1.0 forecasted; likely correlated to the worrisome unemployment figures of late. In the Eurozone PPI was up .3% in June, the first rise since July of last year; the number was mostly in line with expectations with the m/m forecast at .2%, but still showed that prices have fallen at a rate of 6.6% from last year. The ECB and BoE will have meetings this Thursday; economists expect their interest rates to remain unchanged at 1.0% and .5% respectively. In the U.K. sterling rose to 1.70 against the dollar and 1.1792 against the euro after the nation’s construction index reported the slowest rate of contraction in 16 months. The BoE said its M4 money supply measure excluding financials slowed in Q2 to 3.1%, indicating that more quantitative easing may be necessary to combat deflation, but now raises concerns of excessive inflation. With regard to commodity currencies, the Australian kiwi saw very little movement throughout the day as NYMEX WTI crude fluctuated between $70bbl and $71bbl. The largely equity driven loonie saw a .73% decline.
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Asian Session: RBA Shifts Tone
August 04, 2009 10:32 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.28 | | | AUD | -0.08 | | | EUR | -0.08 | | | DKK | -0.13 | | | GBP | -0.15 | | | NZD | -0.22 | | | CHF | -0.23 | | | NOK | -0.25 | | | CAD | -0.25 | | | SEK | -0.56 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10,375.01 | + 0.21 | | Hang Seng Index | 20,863.83 | + 0.27 | | Shanghai Index | 3,471.44 | + 0.25 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,661.73 | - 0.44 | | DAX Index | 5,399.14 | - 0.51 | | SMI Index | 5,948.33 | - 0.32 | | DJIA futures | 9,205.00 | - 0.46 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 953.20 | - 0.37 | | Silver | 14.16 | - 0.77 | | VIX | 25.56 | - 1.39 | | Crude wti | 70.72 | - 1.20 | | USD Index | 77.72 | + 2.22 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Construction PMI, index Jul | 45.1 | 44.5 | GBP / 08.28 | | PPI, % m/m (y/y) Jun | 0.1,-6.6 | -0.2,-5.8 | EUR / 09.00 | | Personal income, % m/m (y/y) Jun | -1.0,-0.8 | 1.4, 0.3 | USD / 12.30 | | Personal spending, % m/m (y/y) Jun | 0.2 (-2.1) | 0.3 (-1.8) | USD / 12.30 | | Core PCE price index, % m/m (y/y) Jun | 0.2 (1.7) | 0.2 (1.7) | USD / 12.30 | | CE price index, % m/m (y/y) Jun | (0.2) | 0.1 (0.1) | USD / 12.30 | | Fed Board Governor Tarullo testifies before a Sena | -- | -- | USD / 13.30 | | Pending home sales, % m/m (y/y) Jun | 0.6 (2.9) | 0.1 (4.6) | USD / 14.00 | | Nationwide consumer confidence, index Jul | 58 | 58 | GBP / 23.01 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8695
R 1: 0.8520
CURRENT: 0.8407
S 1: 0.8340
S 2: 0.8239
EURJPY
R 2: 139.22
R 1: 138.30
CURRENT: 136.62
S 1: 134.30
S 2: 132.80
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1012
R 1: 1.0935
CURRENT: 1.0704
S 1: 1.0547
S 2: 1.0440
USDMXN
R 2: 13.415
R 1: 13.305
CURRENT: 13.1227
S 1: 13.060
S 2: 12.987
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Market Brief |
The Dollar dropped heavily after manufacturing data from Europe and UK posted better than expected readings. The German PMI rose to 45.7 against expectations of 45.2 and the UK PMI figure rose to 50.8 against expectations of 47.7. The US ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 48.9 against expectations of 46.2 which was the highest in 11 months. The Dow Jones Index extended its rally boosted by positive share movements from Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup as HSBC posted unexpected profits of $3.35 Billion. Also helping the rally was the fact that the S&P 500 crossed the 1000 mark for the first time since November 2008 boosted by the manufacturing data which further strengthened the case of recovery from the recession.
The Dollar continued its drop against the Euro and the Pound on positive economic data boosting the Euro to a high of 1.4445 and the Pound to a high of 1.6988. Both the pairs broke strong resistance levels continuing their climb as stronger manufacturing data aided by risk appetite boosted their rallies. Retail sales in Germany dropped unexpectedly 1.8% for June which had earlier brought the Euro down to 1.4207 levels but later climbed backed by the PMI data. The Yen was also weak along with the Dollar as investors shifted to riskier currencies. The equity markets are entering the overbought territory with the S&P 500 crossing the psychological 1000 level and the Dow Index moving higher above 9200. A correction is due in the short term in the equity indices as well as the currencies as investors are waiting for the central bank rate decisions ( BoE, ECB) as well as the all important US Non-Farm Payroll data due out on Friday where a higher drop could lead to increased risk aversion and USD strength against the currencies along with drops in the equity markets. In Australia, the RBA held rates steady at 3.00% as expected but shifted bias from an easing to a neutral tone. The RBA removed "the outlook for inflation allows some scope for further easing of monetary policy," from the accompanying statement.
Today the important news would be the Personal Income and Spending readings from the US where the Income data is expected to decline by 1% (the most since 2005) and the spending levels to rise for the second straight month by 0.3% although with consumers saving more, a drop in data cannot be ruled out which could bring in a wave of risk aversion.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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