Daily Forex Snapshots

US Session: Risk Rally Supported By Earnings Reports and Manufacturing Data

August 03, 2009 11:21 PM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	Nok	1.57
	Sek	1.53
	Gbp	1.33
	Dkk	1.14
	Cad	1.11
	Eur	1.10
	Nzd	0.96
	Chf	0.85
	Aud	0.74
	Jpy	-0.62

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

DJIA Index	9,286.56	+ 1.25
S&P 500 Index	1,002.63	+ 1.53
NASDAQ 100 Index	2,008.61	+ 1.52
Nikkei 225 Futures	10,460.00	+ 0.96
Hang Seng Futures	20,750.00	+ 0.00
FTSE futures	4,651.00	+ 1.64
SMI Futures	5,967.00	+ 0.25

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Crude wti	71.32	+ 2.69
Gold	956.10	+ 0.22
Silver	14.27	+ 2.48
USD Index	77.59	- 0.96
VIX	25.56	- 1.39

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

No Major Events Scheduled

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8694
R 1: 0.8519
CURRENT: 0.8367
S 1: 0.8238
S 2: 0.8126

EURJPY
R 2: 136.89
R 1: 136.10
CURRENT: 134.94
S 1: 132.79
S 2: 132.10

USDCAD
R 2: 1.1015
R 1: 1.0935
CURRENT: 1.0770
S 1: 1.0750
S 2: 1.0545

USDMXN
R 2: 13.415
R 1: 13.305
CURRENT: 13.2100
S 1: 13.135
S 2: 13.059

Market Brief

A recovery story continues to support the recent rally in risk appetite, with the dollar falling against most majors on positive earnings and manufacturing data. The EurUsd gained 136pts after finding support at 1.44, while the UsdJpy gained 56pips to the mid-range of 95. The GbpUsd was one of the strongest movers with 1.42% intraday growth, driving the cable near 1.69 as a major point of resistance. Equity markets rose in the U.S. but fell in Europe, with the Dow up by 1.05% or 95.83pts and the FTSE lower by .5% or 23.25pts. The yield curve steepened with 10 and 30 year bonds positive by .156 and .120 respectively. Commodities were up across the board with oil finding support at $71bbl and gold moving above $960oz; it is expected to reach $1000oz in the medium term.

Investors’ appetite for riskier assets carried over the weekend and into intraday trading as positive earnings and a manufacturing report drove the dollar index to 77.451, the lowest level since shortly after the Lehman collapse. The U.S. ISM factory gauge for July surged to an 11 month high of 48.9 versus 46.2 forecasted, approaching the 50 mark that would imply economic expansion. In Japan the yen saw a decline against a basket of currencies as HSBC Holdings Plc reported better-than-expected earnings of $5.02bln versus $4.9bln expected. Economist Nouriel Roubini feels commodity prices will continue to rally in 2010 amid signs the financial crisis is dissipating. Roubini predicts the U.S. economy will grow a sluggish 1 percent in the next two years, and yesterday an optimistic Alan Greenspan suggested 2.5% growth this quarter. Retail sales m/m in Germany were -1.8% versus 0.5% expected, but the euro found support from the euro-zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index which reached an 11 month high of 46.3 in July versus a forecast of 46.0, adding to the theory that the economic crisis may be behind us. The pound climbed .7% to a nine month high of $1.6879 as Barclays Plc, the second biggest lender in the U.K, reported $3.16bln net income, a .8% rise. The BoE completed its 125bln pound asset purchasing program and plans to meet August 6th to review inflation projections. Commodity currencies got a boost from NYMEX September crude futures, which rose $1.89bbl to $71.34bbl. The equity driven loonie reached a 10 month high of C$1.0668 against the dollar, a 1.1% increase from last week’s close.

Risk Disclaimer:

Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMNY makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.

Asian Session: Risk Rally Continues

August 03, 2009 12:15 PM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	NZD	0.64
	AUD	0.59
	NOK	0.54
	SEK	0.52
	GBP	0.31
	CAD	0.25
	EUR	-0.09
	DKK	-0.10
	JPY	-0.23
	CHF	-0.27

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	10.352.47	- 0.04
Hang Seng Index	20,780.96	+ 1.00
Shanghai Index	3,462.59	+ 1.48
FTSE 100 Index	4,638.52	+ 0.65
DAX Index	5,377.67	+ 0.85
SMI Index	5,987.58	+ 0.58
DJIA futures	9.158.00	+ 0.35

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	953.05	- 0.10
Silver	14.11	+ 1.38
VIX	25.92	+ 2.04
Crude wti	70.55	+ 1.58
USD Index	78.38	+ 0.04

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

Manufacturing PMI, index Jul	43.3	41.8	CHF / 07.30
German Final Manufacturing PMI, index Jul	45.2	45.2 P	EUR / 07.53
Final Manufacturing PMI, index Jul	46.0	46.0 P	EUR / 07.58
Manufacturing PMI, index Jul	47.7	47.0	GBP / 08.28
Total vehicle sales, mn (saar) Jul	9.9	9.7	USD / ---
ISM manufacturing, index Jul	46.5	44.8	USD / 14.00
Construction spending, % m/m (y/y) Jun	-0.6,-10.9	-0.9,-11.6	USD / 14.00
Consumer Prices (% y/y) Jul	5.3	5.7	TRY / 14.00
Labour cost index % q/q Q2	0.5	0.6	NZD / 22.45

Currency Tech

Market Brief

The advance reading for 2Q U.S. GDP showed a 1% contraction which surpassed estimates of 1.5% but a revision of the 1Q reading to -6.4% from -5.5% showed that the recession was the deepest in 27 years. Despite the contraction slowing, the 1.2% decline in personal consumption will dim the outlook for future domestic growth. The expectations that unemployment will continue to rise should continue to weigh on consumer spending which will make sustainable growth difficult to attain.

The dollar weakened further despite a 1% contraction in the GDP and the personal spending reading of -1.2% from the US. Consumers are wary of the recession as pointed out earlier and are resorting to saving more to counter the effects of the recession as pointed out by the worse than expected reading in negative figures. The Euro and Pound moved up to 1.4257 and 1.6733 respectively on the GDP data which pointed to signs that the US economy has started to recover and given rise to further risk appetite.

With major rallies seen in the equity indices and the currency majors, there are high chances of corrections to take place as profit booking could take centre stage if the economic data coming out has little or no major effect on the markets. Investors are waiting for the rate decisions coming out this week from the ECB, BOE and the RBA which could determine the direction of the economies. All three central banks are expected to keep rates unchanged although movements could be seen in the post meeting conference as heads of banks give their statements on the current economic situations especially on stimulus packages.

Today the most important news will be the Retail sales data due from Germany and the manufacturing data from Germany, Euro Zone and the UK. Among all, the ISM manufacturing data from the US could move the markets most where a positive data could see the dollar weakening further against the majors.

ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.