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Forex - US Session: Markets Search For Direction As Economic Data Fails To Surprise
August 20, 2009 10:31 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Nok | 0.73 |  | | | Cad | 0.69 | | | | Sek | 0.66 | | | | Nzd | 0.43 | | | | Aud | 0.34 | | | | Chf | 0.33 | | | | Eur | 0.26 | | | | Dkk | 0.26 | |  | Jpy | -0.08 | | | Gbp | -0.10 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 9,355.71 | + 0.76 | | S&P 500 Index | 1,007.37 | + 1.10 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,989.22 | + 1.02 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10,340.00 | + 0.19 | | Hang Seng Futures | 20,284.00 | + 1.41 | | FTSE futures | 4,753.00 | + 1.64 | | SMI Futures | 6,040.00 | + 1.07 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 72.54 | + 0.17 | | Gold | 940.83 | - 0.13 | | Silver | 13.95 | + 0.83 | | USD Index | 78.37 | - 0.28 | | VIX | 25.09 | - 4.46 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8520
R 1: 0.8478
CURRENT: 0.8308
S 1: 0.8125
S 2: 0.7925
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1347
R 1: 1.1225
CURRENT: 1.0959
S 1: 1.0790
S 2: 1.0630
EURJPY
R 2: 137.85
R 1: 135.10
CURRENT: 134.135
S 1: 132.15
S 2: 131.60
USDMXN
R 2: 13.145
R 1: 13.075
CURRENT: 12.875
S 1: 12.790
S 2: 12.620
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Market Brief |
Inconsequential economic data did not provide clear direction for investors looking to position themselves ahead of the opening bell. The EurUsd fell 25pips, approaching support at 1.42, while the UsdJpy remained unchanged at 94.06. The GbpUsd depreciated 38pips, bringing the cable to the upper-range of 1.64. Equity markets rose slightly in the U.S. and Europe, with the Dow higher by .09% or 7pts and the FTSE up by .08% or 4pts. The yield curve was unchanged, with 10 and 30 year bonds flat by just 2bps; its overall shape remains normal. Commodities were low across the board with oil down by $.40bbl at $73.55bbl and gold lower by $1.9oz to the middle of $942oz.
UK retail sales rose 0.4% in July, beating expectations of .2%, but were overall trending downward from the June 1.2% reading. The cable’s 61pip decline was likely triggered after reports revealed an 8 billion pound U.K. budget deficit in July. The euro was trading sideways near yesterday’s close of 1.423 after ECB Governing Council member Axel Webber said the expansion of German GDP resulted from stimulus measures and ZEW President Franz followed up saying there was “no reason for euphoria.“
Excluding oil, Baltic giant Norway saw mainland GDP increase by 0.3% in Q2 versus expectations of -0.3; helped by increasing household and government expenditures. Though this data sent the Nok up against the dollar, the move was just 24pips as total GDP was hurt by reduced investment in oil and gas, shrinking the number by -1.8% versus estimates of a -0.8 decline. US initial jobless claims rose by 15k to 576k versus expectations of 550k, supporting a .03% dollar index consolidation above 78.52. Getting mixed signals from a .7% decline in crude in the range of $73bbl and higher equities, the Canadian dollar moved faintly by -19pips to 1.0973. On a positive note, though not influencing currency direction, Canadian wholesales were 0.6% higher in June versus expectations of 0.3%.
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European Session: BoJ Cautions Over Japanese Recovery
August 20, 2009 10:49 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | SEK | 0.17 | | | | AUD | 0.15 | | | | NZD | 0.13 | | | | CAD | 0.04 | | | | GBP | 0.03 | | | NOK | -0.04 | | | EUR | -0.22 | | | DKK | -0.24 | | | CHF | -0.34 | | | JPY | -0.49 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10,383.41 | + 1.78 | | Hang Seng Index | 20,364.19 | + 2.05 | | Shanghai Index | 2,911.58 | + 4.50 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,733.99 | + 0.94 | | DAX Index | 5,294.48 | + 1.19 | | SMI Index | 6,032.25 | + 0.86 | | DJIA futures | 9,318.00 | + 0.45 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 943.90 | + 0.19 | | Silver | 13.97 | + 0.97 | | VIX | 26.26 | + 0.30 | | Crude wti | 72.70 | + 0.38 | | USD Index | 78.56 | + 0.10 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Jul | 0.4 (2.8) | 1.2 (2.9) | GBP / 08.30 | | PSNB, £bn Jul | -0.3 | 13.0 | GBP / 08.30 | | PSNCR, £bn Jul | -- | 19.0 | GBP / 08.30 | | BoE provisional M4 growth % m/m (y/y) Jul | -- | -0.2 (13.8 | GBP / 08.30 | | Initial jobless claims, thous (4wk mvg avg) 15-Aug | 553 (564) | 558 (565) | USD / 12.30 | | Leading indicators, % m/m (y/y) Jul | 0.6 (0.1) | 0.7 (-1.2) | USD / 12.30 | | Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index Aug | -3.5 | -7.5 | USD / 12.30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8520
R 1: 0.8478
CURRENT: 0.8308
S 1: 0.8125
S 2: 0.7925
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1347
R 1: 1.1225
CURRENT: 1.0959
S 1: 1.0790
S 2: 1.0630
EURJPY
R 2: 137.85
R 1: 135.10
CURRENT: 134.135
S 1: 132.15
S 2: 131.60
USDMXN
R 2: 13.145
R 1: 13.075
CURRENT: 12.875
S 1: 12.790
S 2: 12.620
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Market Brief |
The Dollar lost its bullish momentum as U.S. stocks advanced yesterday, led by energy and health-care shares, helping the market to erase early loses triggered by China shares with Shanghai Index falling by 4%. The Standard & Poor’s 500 and Dow Jones indices both gained 0.7% to close at 996.46 and 9,279.16 respectively. NYMEX crude oil rallied yesterday to close above $ 72 after a report from the U.S. showing inventories declined the most in 15 months as imports tumbled and refineries increased operating rates.
Cable fell yesterday after the release of BoE minutes, which showed 3 members of the committee wanted to increase the asset purchase program by more than £50 B and on the head of the members was governor Mervyn King who wanted a £75 B expansion. The pound lost more than 150 pips on the release of the minutes, but then pared losses as U.S. rose and risk appetite increased, while the Euro advanced more than 100 pips to close at 1.4234.
Despite consumer prices falling slightly more than expected in Canada, the Canadian & Australian Dollar rallied against the greenback as commodity prices climbed. PIMCO the world’s biggest manager of bond funds, said yesterday that dollar will weaken as U.S. pumps massive amounts of money into the economy, and the greenback is losing its as the world’s reserve currency.
In Japan, BoJ board member Mizuno took a wary note on the Japanese economy, stating that he was unsure if the current recovery would continue. He also stated that the BoJ has limited options left to help support the economy and expected that out put and exports could potentially slow in the second half of the year. In regards to the global economy, he commented that the recovery was fragile and dependant on the massive fiscal and monetarily stimulus provided by governments and policy makers.
Upcoming releases for today, we have the trade balance from Switzerland, retails sales and money supply data from UK. From Canada Wholesales from the month of June will be released, and US will post its weekly jobless claims, the Philadelphia fed index and natural gas storage.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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