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US Session: Markets Remain Relatively Quiet Ahead of FOMC Rate Decision
August 11, 2009 10:24 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Jpy | 1.30 |  | | | Chf | 0.35 | | | | Dkk | 0.11 | | | | Eur | 0.10 | |  | Gbp | -0.02 | | | Nok | -0.29 | | | Sek | -0.83 | | | Aud | -0.98 | | | Cad | -1.16 | | | Nzd | -1.30 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 9,241.45 | - 1.03 | | S&P 500 Index | 994.35 | - 1.27 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,969.73 | - 1.13 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10,590.00 | + 0.09 | | Hang Seng Futures | 21,048.00 | + 1.10 | | FTSE futures | 4,672.00 | - 0.59 | | SMI Futures | 5,955.00 | - 0.98 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 69.37 | - 1.74 | | Gold | 946.00 | - 0.03 | | Silver | 14.31 | - 0.49 | | USD Index | 79.14 | - 0.14 | | Silver | 25.99 | + 4.00 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8695
R 1: 0.8520
CURRENT: 0.8375
S 1: 0.8238
S 2: 0.8125
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1012
R 1: 1.0935
CURRENT: 1.0908
S 1: 1.0633
S 2: 1.0549
EURJPY
R 2: 139.25
R 1: 138.75
CURRENT: 137.23
S 1: 135.99
S 2: 134.30
USDMXN
R 2: 13.305
R 1: 13.070
CURRENT: 12.92
S 1: 12.823
S 2: 12.620
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Market Brief |
Investors held onto their dollar positions ahead of unclear economic data and tomorrow’s FOMC decision. The EurUsd rose 8pips, finding support at 1.415, while the UsdJpy fell 111pips to the upper-range of 95. The GbpUsd rose 3pips, pressuring the cable to just below 1.65. Equity markets fell in the U.S. but rose in Europe, with the Dow declining .79% or -73.61pts and the FTSE rising by .87% or 41.03pts. The yield curve experienced slight steepening, with 10 and 30 year bonds both lower by 8bps. Commodities were mixed with oil down $1.26bbl at $69bbl and gold $0.2oz higher at $947.1oz.
Intraday trading took the dollar in mixed directions, leaving it somewhat range-bound on varied economic data and ahead of tomorrow’s report from the FOMC. First, US Nonfarm productivity was up by 6.4% in Q2 versus 5.5% expected; the fastest increase in over six years. Yet, unit labor costs, often used to measure profit and inflation pressures, fell 5.8% in Q2 versus expectations of -2.4%, down from 3.0 in Q1; the fastest decline in over eight years. On the second day of its meeting, the Federal Reserve is expected to report that its funds rate will remain unchanged and that the central bank will maintain a loose monetary policy. Despite popular belief, analysts suggest that recent positive economic data could serve as a central premise for the Fed to unwind its policy in the near future. In addition to the FOMC report tomorrow, investors await the release of June US trade deficit data which is anticipated to show a further decline to -28.5 from -26.0 in May.
In Canada, housing starts fell in July by an unexpected 4.1% to 132.1 versus estimates of 145. With lower WTI crude futures and global equities, widespread deflationary pressure continue to hold the commodity based currencies like the Cad, Aussie, and Kiwi down 100pips. Other inflationary economic data today included the release of Swedish CPI, which fell into negative territory in July, declining .5% versus -1.0% expected. The IMF said further deflation could spur more quantitative easing in the region. The cable is expected to decline on speculation that tomorrow’s inflation report from the BoE will project deflationary pressure in a nation with a considerably overbought currency, leading analysts to believe Meryvn King’s expansion of the BoE asset purchase program was modified to avoid deflationary problems.
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Asian Session: BoJ Holds Rates & China Disappoints
August 11, 2009 10:08 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NOK | 0.52 | | | | SEK | 0.40 | | | | AUD | 0.30 | | | | CHF | 0.28 | | | | DKK | 0.21 | | | | EUR | 0.20 | | | | NZD | 0.08 | | | | JPY | 0.04 | | | | GBP | 0.02 | | | CAD | -0.19 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10.585.46 | + 0.58 | | Hang Seng Index | 20.986.84 | + 0.27 | | Shanghai Index | 3,264.73 | + 0.46 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,743.44 | + 0.45 | | DAX Index | 5,441.89 | + 0.43 | | SMI Index | 6,014.91 | + 0.12 | | DJIA futures | 9,333.00 | + 0.13 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 948.68 | + 0.25 | | Silver | 14.48 | + 0.69 | | VIX | 24.99 | + 0.92 | | Crude wti | 71.08 | + 0.68 | | USD Index | 79.03 | - 0.29 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Trade balance, £ bnJun | -6.6 | -6.3 | GBP / 08.30 | | Productivity, % q/q ar (y/y)Q2 p | 4.7 (1.9) | 1.6 (1.9) | USD / 12.30 | | Unit labour costs, % q/q ar (y/y)Q2 p | -2.0 (2.4) | 3.0 (2.2) | USD / 12.30 | | Wholesale inventories, % m/m (y/y)Jun | -0.9 (-8.7 | -0.8 (-7.6 | USD / 14.00 | | Corporate goods price index, % y/yJul | -8.7 | -6.6 | JPY / 23.50 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8695
R 1: 0.8520
CURRENT: 0.8375
S 1: 0.8238
S 2: 0.8125
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1012
R 1: 1.0935
CURRENT: 1.0908
S 1: 1.0633
S 2: 1.0549
EURJPY
R 2: 139.25
R 1: 138.75
CURRENT: 137.23
S 1: 135.99
S 2: 134.30
USDMXN
R 2: 13.305
R 1: 13.070
CURRENT: 12.92
S 1: 12.823
S 2: 12.620
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Market Brief |
The Greenback extended its Friday’s rally, with little data from the market, and stocks fell after posting new highs. The Dow Jones fell by 0.34% or 32 points to 9,337 with a similar decline in the S&P Index which fell 0.33% to 1,007, crude oil closed down by $0.33 at $70.60, and gold broke below $950 closing $945. The Dollar strength was limited and traded mostly within tight range, unless for the pound which dropped most among major currencies due to continued concerns about the £50B Quantitative Easing expansion, which suggests that worst may not be over yet and still there’s fears of deflation risks, where inflation report on Wednesday could give us a clearer image. The GBP/USD dropped more than 600 pips since its peak last Wednesday at 1.7040 to bottom at 1.6430.
The Euro was little changed against the dollar dropping by 30 pips to close at 1.4144. The Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index came better than expected, rising from -31.3 to -17.0 in July, the highest level in one year. The Yen was able to rebound after the huge loss on Friday, supported by a drop in the stock market and better than expected Japanese machinery orders.
There was no economic releases from the US yesterday but Robert Hall, Chair of the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee said in a statement “We are serious about being sure that the apparent upturn is not just a part of a longer decline” adding that the committee will wait for activity to surpass its previous peak, which may take 18 months or more to determine.
The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged at the low record of 0.10%, and refrained from unveiling any new measures as policy makers focused on the risk that recent economic improvement will fail to translate into a sustainable recovery. The bank said that economic conditions stopped worsening, but deflation risks are still present and that is why the overall outlook for the economy is unstable.
China released a string of data for July. Markets greatest focus was on new loans, which came in at CNY355.9bn vs. CNY500.0bn exp. While disappointing to growth hungry traders, it was not weak enough to increase concerns that slowing lending will hinder Chinese growth.
Traders focus now is turning to Wednesday FOMC meeting, but as for today Germany will release the final consumer price index data. From UK the visible trade balance will be released, and from the US we have, Non-Farm Productivity for Q2, unit labor cost, and Wholesale Inventories.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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