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US Session: Risk Appetite Returns as Majors Recoup Losses against the Dollar on Improved Equity Markets and Positive Economic Data from Europe
July 09, 2009 11:03 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Sek | 1.93 |  | | | Gbp | 1.82 | | | | Nok | 1.47 | | | | Chf | 1.35 | | | | Dkk | 1.29 | | | | Eur | 1.27 | | | | Nzd | 0.86 | | | | Aud | 0.81 | | | | Cad | 0.65 | |  | Jpy | -0.11 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,183.17 | + 0.06 | | S&P 500 Index | 882.68 | + 0.36 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,752.55 | + 0.31 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9,360.00 | + 0.53 | | Hang Seng Futures | 17,763.00 | + 0.28 | | FTSE futures | 4,116.00 | + 0.35 | | SMI Futures | 5,282.00 | + 0.06 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 60.51 | + 0.62 | | Gold | 912.82 | + 0.37 | | Silver | 12.87 | - 0.10 | | USD Index | 79.89 | - 1.09 | | VIX | 29.78 | - 4.86 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8155
R 2: 0.8038
R 1: 0.7970
CURRENT: 0.7835
S 1: 0.7750
S 2: 0.7630
S 3: 0.7451
EURJPY
R 3: 134.80
R 2: 132.82
R 1: 131.20
CURRENT: 130.20
S 1: 128.10
S 2: 126.98
S 3: 124.39
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4803
R 2: 1.4748
R 1: 1.4660
CURRENT: 1.4582
S 1: 1.4533
S 2: 1.4420
S 3: 1.4400
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Market Brief |
Risk appetite resurged overnight as equity markets in Europe showed signs of improvements with most of the European indexes up more than 0.5% with the exception of FTSE. The Dow edged up 21ppts or 0.24% whilst the DAX up 58ppts or 1.27%. The decision on keeping QE intact boosted the cable over night–the Gbp surged 170pips against the dollar to 1.62, recouping losses from the Usd rally on strong upward momentum as RSI was above 40 throughout the last session. The euro rose 100pips versus the dollar to 1.39 as positive economic data came out from Europe. The dollar stabilized against the yen and consolidated around the 93 level after seeing a 300pips dip from the last session. Commodity prices were up, regaining lost ground across the board with oil rising $0.16 or 0.64% and gold up $1.9 or 0.21% to $911oz. 10 yr yields rose slightly to 3.38% after gaining support from an unexpectedly robust demand from the Treasury auction yesterday.
The dollar retreated from the rally in the last session as risk appetite returned. The improved market sentiment may be short-lived as risk appetite remains vulnerable as we go further into the earning session. The Germany’s CPI came in 0.4% as expected, easing concerns over inflation and gave a boost to the euro. Initial jobless claims fell to 565k vs. 605k forecasted, the lowest level in six months. The unexpected drop sent support to risk appetite, which would boost most majors against the dollar to recover last session’s loss. The British central bank casted a vote of confidence to the UK economy as it halted the expected increase in its quantitative easing program. The BoE kept rates unchanged at 0.5% and remained its asset purchase program at its current level of €125bn.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMNY makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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Asian Session: BoE Expected to Expand Asset Purchase Program
July 09, 2009 10:48 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 1.43 | | | | AUD | 1.01 | | | | SEK | 0.89 | | | | NOK | 0.83 | | | | CAD | 0.80 | | | | GBP | 0.78 | | | | DKK | 0.58 | | | | EUR | 0.57 | | | | CHF | 0.50 | | | JPY | -1.05 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,291.06 | - 1.37 | | Hang Seng Index | 17,751.97 | + 0.17 | | Shanghai Index | 3,123.04 | + 1.37 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,160.21 | + 0.48 | | DAX Index | 4,614.80 | + 0.92 | | SMI Index | 5,307.41 | + 0.34 | | DJIA futures | 8,161.00 | + 0.55 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 913.50 | + 0.44 | | Silver | 12.89 | + 0.29 | | VIX | 31.30 | + 1.45 | | Crude wti | 61.07 | + 1.54 | | USD Index | 80.45 | - 0.39 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Global: G8 meeting to be held in Italy (to 10/7) | -- | -- | -- | | BoE MPC Bank Rate decision, % Jul | 0.50 | 0.50 | GBP / 12.00 | | Manuf. Production, % y/y (nsa) May | -16.8 | -21.6 | ZAR / 12.00 | | Initial jobless claims, thous (4wk mvg avg) 04-Jul | -- | 614 (615) | USD / 12.30 | | Wholesale inventories, % m/m (y/y) May | -1.0,-7.4 | -1.4, -6.2 | USD / 14.00 | | CPI, % m/m Jun | 0.20 | -0.29 | MXN / 14.00 | | Corporate goods price index, % y/y Jun | -- | -5.4 | JPY / 23.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8155
R 2: 0.8038
R 1: 0.7970
CURRENT: 0.7835
S 1: 0.7750
S 2: 0.7630
S 3: 0.7451
EURJPY
R 3: 134.80
R 2: 132.82
R 1: 131.20
CURRENT: 130.20
S 1: 128.10
S 2: 126.98
S 3: 124.39
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4803
R 2: 1.4748
R 1: 1.4660
CURRENT: 1.4582
S 1: 1.4533
S 2: 1.4420
S 3: 1.4400
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Market Brief |
The last few day have seen some big move in the risk assets on no particular news or events. Just the general impression that the global recovery will take a bit longer to fully entrench itself. The lack of hard driver supports a short term correction of risky assets, which began to take shape in yesterday's US equity trading and gained some traction in the Asian session. Currently, European equities are trading higher. Commodities were able to halt their rapid slide, with crude steadying around the $61.00bll level. With the JPY continuing to gain unwanted strength in the eyes of the BoJ, we need to start considering the BoJ's tolerance zones. We would expect to hear some level of verbal intervention by Japanese officials around 93.00 / 50. In Australia, unemployment rate continued to creep higher to 5.8%, although lower than the market's expectation of 5.9%. The AUD has recently come under pressure from weaker commodity prices and as investors risk appetite as declined. Today's major event will the BoE rate decision. While the markets universally expect the central bank to hold at 0.50% there is plenty of speculation regarding the possibility that the MPC will announce an expansion of its asset purchase program. Whatever the exact number of the increase, it will be seen as an acknowledgement that QE has not worked as efficiently as earlier believed. Historically, QE has been negative for the underlying currency, in this case the Sterling, and we don’t expect anything different today.
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US Session: Global Markets Sink Consistent With Market Correction Theory
July 09, 2009 12:09 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Aud | 1.89 | | | | Nzd | 1.01 | | | | Nok | 0.75 | | | | Sek | 0.71 | | | | Dkk | 0.52 | | | | Chf | 0.30 | | | | Cad | 0.24 | | | Eur | -0.53 | | | Gbp | -0.71 | | | Jpy | -2.26 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,138.20 | - 0.31 | | S&P 500 Index | 874.83 | - 0.70 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,737.90 | - 0.47 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9,420.00 | + 0.10 | | Hang Seng Futures | 17,713.00 | + 0.01 | | FTSE futures | 4,102.00 | - 1.06 | | SMI Futures | 5,279.00 | - 0.96 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 61.15 | - 2.83 | | Gold | 908.68 | - 1.73 | | Silver | 12.88 | - 1.91 | | USD Index | 80.82 | + 0.17 | | VIX | 31.94 | + 3.53 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8160
R 2: 0.8109
R 1: 0.8008
CURRENT: 0.7967
S 1: 0.7851
S 2: 0.7825
S 3: 0.7790
EURJPY
R 3: 134.94
R 2: 133.61
R 1: 132.97
CURRENT: 132.34
S 1: 132.00
S 2: 131.43
S 3: 127.00
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4800
R 2: 1.4748
R 1: 1.4649
CURRENT: 1.4538
S 1: 1.4454
S 2: 1.4385
S 3: 1.4334
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Market Brief |
The financial markets took a turn for the worse supporting further dollar strength in an attempt by investors to scale back risk. The EurUsd fell 60pips to the low range of 1.3863. The UsdJpy fell 214pips consistent with the pattern of risk aversion driving price action in the marketplace. Equity markets sold off in Asia and Europe but were mixed in the U.S. with the DJIA opening higher but giving away gains in the afternoon. Commodities retreated across sector with oil off 3.5% at $60.73bbl and gold fell to $909oz or 2.5%. Bond yields fell at the 10 and 30yr points in the UST curve ahead of the 10yr $19BN auction, representing continued high level of demand in the later maturities as investors prepare for further pullback in riskier assets.
The economic calendar is relatively light this week, but corporate earnings season is in full gear. Pepsi and Dollar General both beat analysts’ estimates. However investors are concerned that expectations for a recovery in global economy may have been exaggerated. Although the IMF stated that the world is starting to pull out of deep recession, the G8 comments indicate continued fears about growth. The dollar strengthened as investors continued flight to quality and away from the more risky assets.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMNY makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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