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US Session: Risk Aversion Masks Recovery as Overnight Trading and Durable Goods Disappoint Investors
July 29, 2009 9:52 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
 | Gbp | -0.30 | | | Nzd | -0.42 | | | Jpy | -0.47 | | | Sek | -0.62 | | | Cad | -0.83 | | | Eur | -0.90 | | | Dkk | -0.91 | | | Nok | -1.04 | | | Chf | -1.12 | | | Aud | -1.32 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 9,057.95 | - 0.43 | | S&P 500 Index | 974.35 | - 0.54 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,967.90 | - 0.39 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10,130.00 | + 0.19 | | Hang Seng Futures | 20,239.00 | + 1.52 | | FTSE futures | 4,522.50 | + 0.63 | | SMI Futures | 5,786.00 | + 0.45 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 62.88 | - 6.47 | | Gold | 929.85 | - 0.82 | | Silver | 13.30 | - 3.13 | | USD Index | 79.52 | + 0.87 | | VIX | 26.00 | + 3.96 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8520
R 1: 0.8379
CURRENT: 0.8215
S 1: 0.8090
S 2: 0.7925
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1225
R 1: 1.1010
CURRENT: 1.0848
S 1: 1.0545
S 2: 1.0440
EURJPY
R 2: 136.90
R 1: 136.10
CURRENT: 133.70
S 1: 132.10
S 2: 131.60
USDMXN
R 2: 13.645
R 1: 13.415
CURRENT: 13.243
S 1: 13.135
S 2: 13.060
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Market Brief |
The dollar rallied against a basket of currencies today as a risk-averse investor sentiment continued to flourish in financial markets. The EurUsd fell 97pips testing 1.406 as a point of resistance, while the UsdJpy gained nearly .54pips to find support at 95.00. In the U.K. the GbpUsd continues depreciating below 1.64. Equity markets were mixed in the U.S. and Europe with the Dow lower by .63% or 57.51pts and the FTSE up by .73% or 32.9pts. The yield curve continued its downward trend with 10 and 30 year bond yields lower by .63 and .6.
The economic recovery story was veiled today as the dollar rallied on the back of weaker Asian equities and projections from economists that U.S. durable goods orders had fallen. The U.S. Commerce Department reported that orders for durable goods were -2.5% versus -.6% expected; likely due to the recent shutdown of domestic auto plants. In Japan, desire for safe haven investments drove up the yen against most majors as retail sales dropped more-than-expected to 3.0% versus a 2.8% consensus. The dollar index was up to a high of 79.60 and the yen moved .62% higher, surpassing 95. In the eurozone, German CPI in July CPI came out twice as bad at -.6 y/y versus -.3 y/y; marking the first negative reading in 23 years. News of the data’s negative pace supported a flight to safety as investors sold off the high yielding Euro. Housing data in the U.K. was mixed with June mortgage approvals at 47,600, beating analyst’s expectations of 47,000; however net lending to consumers fell £.2bln to £.1bln versus £.3bln expected. After reaching a 10 month high yesterday, the Cad slowed its pace and traded sideways versus the dollar. New Zealand’s NBNZ Business Confidence rose 18.7 in July, the highest since February 2002. On the commodities front, NYMEX crude for September delivery fell 4% to $64.50bbl in light of yesterday’s comments from the CFTC on excessive speculation and a recent report that crude supply exceeded expectations by four million barrels. The Canadian statistics agency will release data on raw materials prices tomorrow.
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Asian Session: Chinese Equities Fall
July 29, 2009 11:27 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CAD | 0.35 |  | | | NZD | 0.16 | | | | CHF | 0.09 | | | | DKK | 0.02 | | | | EUR | 0.01 | | | SEK | -0.10 | | | NOK | -0.11 | | | GBP | -0.23 | | | AUD | -0.28 | | | JPY | -0.32 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10,113.24 | + 0.25 | | Hang Seng Index | 20,124.96 | - 2.42 | | Shanghai Index | 3,266.43 | - 5.01 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,548.92 | + 0.44 | | DAX Index | 5,213.29 | + 0.74 | | SMI Index | 5,779.66 | + 0.29 | | DJIA futures | 9,014.00 | - 0.39 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 936.00 | - 0.16 | | Silver | 13.59 | - 1.05 | | VIX | 25.01 | + 3.00 | | Crude wti | 65.72 | - 2.24 | | USD Index | 78.93 | + 0.11 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| NBP interest rate announcement, % 30-Jul | -- | 3.50% | PLN / -- | | German Preliminary CPI, % m/m (y/y) Jul | 0.3 (-0.3) | 0.4 (0.1) | EUR / -- | | ECB Bank lending survey published | -- | -- | EUR / 08.00 | | BoE mortgage approvals, K Jun | 47.0 | 43.4 | GBP / 08.30 | | BoE net mortgage lending, £ bn Jun | 0.6 | 0.3 | GBP / 08.30 | | BoE net consumer credit, £ bn Jun | 0.3 | 0.3 | GBP / 08.30 | | CPI, % y/y Jun | -- | 8.0 | ZAR / 09.30 | | FRB of New York President Dudley (FOMC voter) spea | -- | -- | USD / 12.30 | | Durable goods new orders, % m/m (y/y) Jun | -0.5,-25.0 | 1.8,-23.5 | USD / 12.30 | | Core capital goods orders, % m/m (y/y) Jun | -- | 4.7, -22.3 | USD / 12.30 | | Fed Beige Book published | -- | -- | USD / 18.00 | | RBNZ rate decision % Jul | 2.50% | 2.50% | NZD / 21.00 | | Town hall-style meeting with Fed Chairman Bernanke | -- | -- | USD / 22.00 | | Industrial production, % m/m Jun | 2.4 | 5.7 | JPY / 23.50 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8520
R 1: 0.8379
CURRENT: 0.8215
S 1: 0.8090
S 2: 0.7925
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1225
R 1: 1.1010
CURRENT: 1.0848
S 1: 1.0545
S 2: 1.0440
EURJPY
R 2: 136.90
R 1: 136.10
CURRENT: 133.70
S 1: 132.10
S 2: 131.60
USDMXN
R 2: 13.645
R 1: 13.415
CURRENT: 13.243
S 1: 13.135
S 2: 13.060
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Market Brief |
Risk appetite hit a rough patch today, as weak US consumer confidence data then reports that two of China's largest state-owned commercial banks have put a cap on lending targets, eroded market optimism. Risky Assets came under selling pressure and short USD positions were moderately covered. Both the Hang Seng and Shanghai indexes have come under significant selling pressure. However, European indexes have moved into the positive, hinting that what we have seen was only a short term correction. In European session, markets and the BoE will be watching mortgage approvals and lending figures to help support arguments for or against increasing their asset purchase program. We are still in the corner that the current markets confidence over the UK recovery is overly optimistic (supported by last week's weaker GDP release) and expect the sterling to come under pressure mid term. There is a plethora of events in the US session, which should keep trading choppy. On the economic front, durable goods orders is expected to correct slightly to -0.6% in June from a sharp rise of 1.8% in May. We also expect continued growth in core to support risk appetite and set the tone for a weaker USD. Tonight, the RBNZ is universally expected to hold rates at 2.50%. As usual, traders will be focused on the accompanying statement. Markets are concerned that the RBNZ will temper its easing policy (NZD positive) and/or would attempt to verbally intervene to weaken the currency (NZD negative).
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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