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US Session: Risk Appetite Dissaptes as Consumer Confidence Comes in Worse than Expected
July 28, 2009 8:21 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Jpy | 0.74 |  | | | Aud | 0.30 | | | | Nzd | 0.09 | |  | Nok | -0.35 | | | Gbp | -0.45 | | | Chf | -0.48 | | | Dkk | -0.50 | | | Eur | -0.50 | | | Cad | -0.63 | | | Sek | -1.17 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 9,068.15 | - 0.44 | | S&P 500 Index | 976.14 | - 0.62 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,968.29 | + 0.02 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10,080.00 | + 0.00 | | Hang Seng Futures | 20,548.00 | + 1.95 | | FTSE futures | 4,514.00 | - 0.65 | | SMI Futures | 5,760.00 | - 0.24 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 66.90 | - 2.16 | | Gold | 938.18 | - 1.64 | | Silver | 13.74 | - 2.10 | | USD Index | 78.95 | + 0.42 | | VIX | 25.07 | + 3.25 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8520
R 1: 0.8375
CURRENT: 0.8331
S 1: 0.8090
S 2: 0.7923
EURJPY
R 2: 136.90
R 1: 136.10
CURRENT: 135.80
S 1: 133.85
S 2: 132.10
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1225
R 1: 1.1010
CURRENT: 1.0754
S 1: 1.0545
S 2: 1.0440
USDMXN
R 2: 13.6450
R 1: 13.4150
CURRENT: 13.2190
S 1: 13.1350
S 2: 13.0560
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Market Brief |
The dollar appreciated against most majors during intraday trading as poor earnings reports set off a resurgence of pessimism in financial markets. The EurUsd fell 93 pips testing 1.415 as a point of resistance, while the UsdJpy fell nearly 100 pips to the low range of 94. In the UK the GbpUsd fell 68 pips to 1.6421. Equity markets declined in the U.S. and Europe, with the Dow lower by .72% or 65.5pts and the FTSE off 1.25% or 57.29pts. The yield curve for 30 and 10 year bonds fell, and commodities were lower across the board with crude down $1.47bbl to $66.91bbl and gold meeting resistance at $938oz.
The early session was characterized by a rise in risk appetite as positive data suggesting a recovery was supporting the market. Evidence of this included the dollar index falling to the lowest level this year at 78.315 and U.S. home price data arriving at a slower pace that was in line with expectations. The pound rallied to a three day high above 1.65 as British financial stocks advanced to highs not seen since last year and the Standard Chartered Bank raised its forecast for sterling to reach 1.70 in the third quarter. The desire for risky assets then reversed course as poor earnings and consumer confidence led a flight to safety. The New York based consumer confidence index fell to 46.6 versus 49 expected, sending the dollar index up .2% to 78.791. Commodity driven currencies came under pressure as investors sought safety in the yen, dollar and Swiss franc, sending oil and gold lower. Crude oil for September delivery declined 2.5% and Gold fell $14.41oz, taking the high yielding Canadian dollar 6% lower to C$1.0750.
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Asian Session: RBA Governor Stevens Helps AUD
July 28, 2009 12:27 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUD | 1.35 | | | | NOK | 1.17 | | | | NZD | 1.08 | | | | SEK | 0.76 | | | | CAD | 0.64 | | | | DKK | 0.48 | | | | EUR | 0.48 | | | | CHF | 0.46 | | | | GBP | 0.33 | | | | JPY | 0.25 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10,087.26 | - 0.01 | | Hang Seng Index | 20,577.26 | + 1.60 | | Shanghai Index | 3,438.37 | + 0.09 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,602.40 | + 0.35 | | CAC 40 Index | 3,385.47 | + 0.38 | | SMI Index | 5,817.58 | + 0.73 | | DJIA futures | 9,066.00 | - 0.04 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 955.75 | + 0.61 | | Silver | 14.07 | + 0.21 | | VIX | 24.28 | + 5.15 | | Crude wti | 68.80 | + 0.61 | | USD Index | 78.39 | - 0.30 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| CBI distributive trades, reported sales Jul | -12 | -17 | GBP / 10.00 | | S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home prices , % y/y May | -17.9 | -18.1 | USD / 13.00 | | Consumer confidence, index Jul | 49.3 | 49.3 | USD / 14.00 | | FRB of San Francisco President Yellen (FOMC voter) | -- | -- | USD / 16.35 | | Part 2 of town hall-style meeting with Fed Chairma | -- | -- | USD / 22.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8520
R 1: 0.8375
CURRENT: 0.8331
S 1: 0.8090
S 2: 0.7923
EURJPY
R 2: 136.90
R 1: 136.10
CURRENT: 135.80
S 1: 133.85
S 2: 132.10
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1225
R 1: 1.1010
CURRENT: 1.0754
S 1: 1.0545
S 2: 1.0440
USDMXN
R 2: 13.6450
R 1: 13.4150
CURRENT: 13.2190
S 1: 13.1350
S 2: 13.0560
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Market Brief |
The positive sentiment and the natural carry over into risk correlated trades continued in Asian session. Yesterday's strong US new homes sales and today’s news that European bank earnings surprised to the upside, punctuated by Deutsche Bank, which came out with a profit increase of 68%, all added to the furor that risk appetite is still well entrenched. In addition, RBA Governor Stevens stated that " (he can) imagine more upside risks to economy to balance out downside risks. Appears domestic downturn may not prove to be a serious one“, which kept risky assets well bid. While the fundamentals story is light, the technical side of markets is looking very interesting. Currently all risky assets are performing well and moving lock-n-step with each other. Equities such as S&P500 keep pushing higher and the S&P500 is now testing 2009 highs at 982, with participants now targeting 1000. Oil is breaking higher and approaching the $70bll, opening the door to $73.40bll, which is the 2009 high. In the FX markets, commodity currencies keep roaring on.. For the AUDUSD and NZDUSD next significant resistance stand at 0.8383 and 0.6945, respectively. The CAD is benefiting from strong market momentum and risk buying for a push to parity. We have noticed a shift from BoC Governor Carney strong words on the Looney appreciation to mixed signals from Cabinet ministers and the BoC statement. Basically, clearing the way for further CAD strength. While Majors are also grinding higher, with EURUSD and GBPUSD approaching major horizontal resistances at 1.4340 and 1.6745 respectively. We don’t see any major obstacles to risk appetite near term, as US and European data along with corporate earning are expected to come inline or above estimates.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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