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US Session: Lack of Volume Leaves Finanacial Markets Mostly Neutral Watch for Entry Points in FX
July 27, 2009 5:31 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Sek | 0.87 |  | | | Nok | 0.73 | | | | Aud | 0.55 | | | | Gbp | 0.44 | | | | Cad | 0.38 | | | | Eur | 0.23 | | | | Dkk | 0.21 | | | | Nzd | 0.08 | | | | Chf | 0.01 | |  | Jpy | -0.51 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 9,046.99 | - 0.51 | | S&P 500 Index | 973.08 | - 0.63 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,949.52 | - 0.84 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10,100.00 | + 0.20 | | Hang Seng Futures | 10,100.00 | + 0.63 | | FTSE futures | 4,528.00 | - 0.34 | | SMI Futures | 5,757.00 | + 0.05 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 68.39 | + 0.50 | | Gold | 951.95 | + 0.06 | | Silver | 13.98 | + 0.52 | | USD Index | 78.71 | - 0.05 | | VIX | 24.40 | + 5.67 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8260
R 1: 0.8250
CURRENT: 0.8212
S 1: 0.8090
S 2: 0.7925
EURJPY
R 2: 136.90
R 1: 135.60
CURRENT: 135.45
S 1: 132.10
S 2: 131.60
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1225
R 1: 1.1010
CURRENT: 1.0842
S 1: 1.0785
S 2: 1.0550
USDMXN
R 2: 13.645
R 1: 13.415
CURRENT: 13.1825
S 1: 13.145
S 2: 13.060
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Market Brief |
The dollar is mostly flat in intraday trading with slight inclination in favor of risk appetite. The EurUsd is higher by a mere 17pips to the low-range of 1.42, while the UsdJpy followed suit gaining 50pips to 95.29. The GbpUsd increased 43pips approaching 1.65 as an initial level of resistance, if we see a break above 1.66 the pair should see a retracement of the previous 2009 highs of 1.67. Equity markets are slightly negative in the US and mixed in Europe, representing an overall lack of direction in the marketplace. The Dow has managed to remain above 9000, but without much support as the index is off 0.50% or 43pts to 9049. Bond Yields rise following a 115bln treasury auction, as treasuries are at their most inexpensive levels relative to inflation since 1994 as CPI declined 1.4% last month. The 2year yield is above 1.00% to 1.043%, signaling a slow progression towards normalization regarding the current interest rate environment. Commodities are mostly inactive with gold at $952oz and oil at $68bbl slightly improved but mostly unchanged from levels in the prior session.
The risk aversion/appetite trade which has been a central theme in broader markets continues to drive price action. While volatility may have eased on a very near-term basis, the lack of volume could lead to exaggerated price swings as we move into September. Relationships among asset classes are shifting, and some of the traditional instruments characterized as highly correlated are becoming less related. For example the strong relationship between oil and the Cad, is less correlated than the relationship between equity indexes like the Dow or SPX versus the Cad. Economic indicators are a strong factor in risk sentiment, and we have several significant data points being announced this week. In the US, Q2 GDP is set to be released this Friday and the consensus stands that the reading should be negative at -1.5% vs. (-3.5% y/y). In addition to GDP data, durable goods data is scheduled to be announced Wednesday at -0.5% a contraction for the month of June. These anecdotes support a move in favor risk aversion, but contradict the technical story in equities and FX on a short-term basis.
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Asian Session: Asian Equity Markets Start the Week on a Firm Note
July 27, 2009 11:17 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | AUD | 0.52 | | | | NOK | 0.48 | | | | SEK | 0.45 | | | | GBP | 0.22 | | | | EUR | 0.21 | | | | DKK | 0.20 | | | | CAD | 0.05 | | | | CHF | 0.02 | | | NZD | -0.03 | | | JPY | -0.20 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 10,088.66 | + 1.44 | | Hang Seng Index | 20,213.50 | + 1.15 | | Shanghai Index | 3,435.21 | + 1.85 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,598.24 | + 0.26 | | DAX Index | 5,272.92 | + 0.83 | | SMI Index | 5,769.52 | + 0.15 | | DJIA futures | 9,079.00 | + 0.23 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 954.98 | + 0.38 | | Silver | 14.01 | + 0.71 | | VIX | 23.09 | - 1.45 | | Crude wti | 68.59 | + 0.79 | | USD Index | 78.63 | - 0.15 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| BoE publishes Asset Purchase Facility Quarterly Re | -- | -- | GBP / 08.30 | | M3, % y/y (3mma) Jun | 3.5 | 3.7 (4.5) | EUR / 08.00 | | Private sector loans, % y/y Jun | -- | 1.8 | EUR / 08.00 | | NBH interest rate announcement, % | -- | 9.50% | HUF / 12.00 | | New home sales, thous. saar Jun | 354 | 342 | USD / 14.00 | | Town hall meeting with Fed Chairman | -- | -- | USD / 22.00 | | Trade balance NZD bn nsa Jun | 0.215 | 0.858 | NZD / 22.45 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8260
R 1: 0.8250
CURRENT: 0.8212
S 1: 0.8090
S 2: 0.7925
EURJPY
R 2: 136.90
R 1: 135.60
CURRENT: 135.45
S 1: 132.10
S 2: 131.60
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1225
R 1: 1.1010
CURRENT: 1.0842
S 1: 1.0785
S 2: 1.0550
USDMXN
R 2: 13.645
R 1: 13.415
CURRENT: 13.1825
S 1: 13.145
S 2: 13.060
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Market Brief |
Regional Asian equity markets opened up firmer today, setting the stage for a further rally in risk correlated trades. The USD and JPY were put on the back foot, as risk appetite continued to roll on. However signs of declining upwards momentum can clearly be seen in the EURUSD as the pair failed to break above 1.4300, despite last weeks strong surge in equity and oil prices. In addition, from a technical standpoint, many of the majors are showing overbought conditions and recent CFTC statistics are sending warning signals, as EUR positions have nearly doubled over the last week (highest level since March 2008). Commodity currencies including AUDUSD and NZDUSD are approaching their 2009 highs, which are 0.8265 and 0.6630 respectively. Gold prices remained range bound, after surging from $937oz to $955oz last week. The consolidation was attributed to both technical levels and fundamental views –traders eyed shifts in the dollar’s strength and equity markets for direction as renewed optimism prompted spurts of outflows in the dollar, keeping gold in check at the current level. From a fundamental standpoint, this week looks to be risk bullish as US data is expect to come in at consensus or slightly higher, while underperforming corporate earnings should have a muted effect in the markets. Today, markets will be watching Eurozone’s M3. Also, the BoE publishes its Asset Purchase Facility Quarterly Report and, in the US, the new home sales data will be released. Also today will also usher in the first US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue (planned by former Treasury Secretary Paulson). Markets will be listening intently for any comments on the USD and China's desire for an alternate global reserve currency.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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