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US Session: Positive earnings data overruled by UK deficit and CIT bankruptcy concerns
July 21, 2009 11:44 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Nzd | 0.21 |  | | | Aud | 0.13 | | | | Cad | 0.09 | | | | Chf | 0.05 | | | | Dkk | 0.05 | | | | Sek | 0.04 | | | | Nok | 0.01 | |  | Eur | -0.05 | | | Gbp | -0.07 | | | Jpy | -0.09 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,915.94 | + 0.77 | | S&P 500 Index | 954.58 | + 0.36 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,916.20 | + 0.36 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9,660.00 | + 0.10 | | Hang Seng Futures | 19,520.00 | + 0.00 | | FTSE futures | 4,455.00 | + 0.90 | | SMI Futures | 5,624.00 | + 0.07 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 64.72 | + 1.16 | | Gold | 949.15 | + 0.07 | | Silver | 13.57 | + 0.15 | | USD Index | 78.83 | + 0.01 | | VIX | 23.87 | - 2.17 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8260
R 1: 0.8235
CURRENT: 0.8126
S 1: 0.7925
S 2: 0.7815
EURJPY
R 2: 136.90
R 1: 134.80
CURRENT: 133.49
S 1: 131.60
S 2: 129.35
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1350
R 1: 1.1225
CURRENT: 1.1082
S 1: 1.0930
S 2: 1.0785
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Market Brief |
Mixed market sentiment directed currency movement today as positive earnings reports and Chairman Bernanke’s testimony prompted a stop and go progression. The dollar gained support in the early session as traders remained watchful ahead of the Fed report, but the better corporate earnings boosted demand for risk and sent the dollar lower. The EurUsd retreated from early gains, falling 34pips to 1.41. The GbpUsd dipped 148pips to 1.64 after a two-day rise. The UsdJpy dropped 66pips to 93.4 amid resurgence in risk aversion. Equity markets were mixed in the U.S. and Europe, with the Dow edging down 9pts or 0.1% and the FTSE rising 26pts or 0.62%. Yields were lower across the curve with the 10yr down 0.135 to 3.47%. Commodity prices were mixed, with oil rising $0.31 to $64bbl and gold off $1 or 0.11% to $947oz.
The early session saw some dollar appreciation following Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments in a wall street journal editorial where he revealed the Fed would be able to diverge from QE measures while minimizing inflation risk. Also contributing to the initial risk-averse market sentiment was news that CIT bondholders may be unable to help the company combat its estimated $10bln of debt. As the day progressed, the dollar depreciated against most majors on positive earnings reports from large companies like economic bellwether Caterpillar Inc. who beat estimates, reporting $.72 versus $.22 per share. The positive news sent the euro up .2% versus the dollar to $1.4258; breaking through a major resistance level of $1.4120.
Back in his meeting with congress, Chairman Bernanke relayed earlier statements and expressed his plans to keep rates exceptionally low. The testimony sent the dollar and yen retracing their downward spirals, now advancing against the euro and cable. Increased fear in the U.K. of a possible credit downgrade kept sterling under pressure near 1.643. BoE Deputy Governor Bean said the central bank may adjust its benchmark interest rate as it departs from a tight monetary policy. The cable is expected to decline to 1.60 by the end of 2009. The loonie traded sideways after reaching a one month high of C$1.0966 on increased consumer confidence and higher commodity prices. The BoC left its benchmark interest rate unchanged as expected. NYMEX WTI crude declined from $65bbl to $64.80bbl.
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Asian Session: BoC to talk up recovery & down CAD
July 21, 2009 11:52 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | SEK | 0.67 | | | | JPY | 0.38 | | | | NOK | 0.34 | | | CAD | -0.15 | | | AUD | -0.17 | | | CHF | -0.18 | | | DKK | -0.20 | | | EUR | -0.23 | | | NZD | -0.26 | | | GBP | -0.54 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Hang Seng Index | 19,415.37 | - 0.44 | | Shanghai Index | 3,213.21 | - 1.64 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,456.91 | + 0.29 | | DAX Index | 5,051.12 | + 0.41 | | SMI Index | 5,634.85 | + 0.12 | | DJIA futures | 8,790.00 | - 0.17 | | S&P future | 947.70 | - 0.13 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 948.84 | + 0.01 | | Silver | 13.63 | - 0.22 | | VIX | 24.40 | + 0.24 | | Crude wti | 63.99 | + 0.01 | | USD Index | 78.99 | + 0.20 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| PSNB, £ bn Jun | 15.5 | 19.9 | GBP / 08.30 | | PSNCR, £ bn Jun | -- | 18.8 | GBP / 08.30 | | BoC interest rate announcement, % | 0.25 | 0.25 | CAD / 13.00 | | Fed Chairman Bernanke delivers semi-annual Monetar | -- | -- | USD / 14.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 2: 0.8260
R 1: 0.8235
CURRENT: 0.8126
S 1: 0.7925
S 2: 0.7815
EURJPY
R 2: 136.90
R 1: 134.80
CURRENT: 133.49
S 1: 131.60
S 2: 129.35
USDCAD
R 2: 1.1350
R 1: 1.1225
CURRENT: 1.1082
S 1: 1.0930
S 2: 1.0785
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Market Brief |
Risk appetite seem to be on the retreat with European equity markets renting lower and US equity futures now pointing to a lower open. While the earning season has yet to provide any real surprise we still have plenty of crucial reports in the week to come. We expect the uncertainly to undermine optimism and support USD and JPY buying. Markets will be content to stick within in the ranges before the US session opens and Bernanke’s testifies in front of congress. In order to avoid unsettling the market the Chairman released an article on the WSJ online this morning. Bernanke’s states that the Fed is unlikely to tighten policy saying '…economic conditions are not likely to warrant tighter monetary policy for an extended period.' However he does go into some details on potential exit strategies from QE. EURUSD is trading between 1.4180 - 1.4240 while USDJPY has found support off the 93.75 lvls and is now retracing to 94.30 intra day highs. The BoC announces interest rates today and the markets look for no change in the overnight rate at 0.25%. However, the focus will be on the CB view on the current CAD appreciation. At Junes meeting the statement read "If the unprecedentedly rapid rise in the Canadian dollar proves persistent, it could fully offset these (domestic economic data) positive factors". Clearly the bank is concerned about CAD pricing and crushing Canadas fragile recovery. We expect the central bank to strengthen the CAD language from the previous statement but stay clear of signaling actual intervention.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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