Daily Forex Snapshots

Asian Session: FX Markets Subdued

July 13, 2009 11:44 AM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	NOK	0.12
	EUR	-0.01
	CAD	-0.02
	DKK	-0.03
	SEK	-0.04
	JPY	-0.10
	CHF	-0.13
	AUD	-0.25
	GBP	-0.52
	NZD	-0.69

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	9,050.33	- 2.55
Hang Seng Index	17,244.98	- 2.61
Shanghai Index	3,080.56	- 1.07
FTSE 100 Index	4,129.78	+ 0.06
DAX Index	4,573.97	- 0.05
SMI Index	4,573.97	- 0.04
DJIA futures	8,067.00	- 0.22

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	913.26	+ 0.02
Silver	12.62	- 0.39
VIX	29.02	- 2.55
Crude wti	59.71	- 0.30
USD Index	80.30	+ 0.07

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

Budget balance, $ bn Jun	-77.5	33.5 (08)	USD / 18.00
RICS housing market survey, price balance Jun	-40.0	-44.1	GBP / 23.01
BRC retail sales monitor, total sales, % y/y Jun	--	0.8	GBP / 23.01

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8155
R 2: 0.8038
R 1: 0.7890
CURRENT: 0.7751
S 1: 0.7724
S 2: 0.7630
S 3: 0.7550

EURJPY
R 3: 132.82
R 2: 131.90
R 1: 130.88
CURRENT: 128.89
S 1: 126.98
S 2: 126.30
S 3: 124.39

USDCAD
R 3: 1.1975
R 2: 1.1815
R 1: 1.1725
CURRENT: 1.1626
S 1: 1.1544
S 2: 1.1500
S 2: 1.1419

Market Brief

Markets are currently subdued in the Asian session, with EURUSD held in a tight range trading from a low of 1.3915 to a high of 1.3977. The USDJPY is trading in the range 92.35- 92.95. Last week proved to be a difficult one for the so-called risky assets. Both commodities and equities sold off with strong buying in JPY (and to a lesser extent, USD). While Asian equity markets had a tough going (Nikkei down -2.55%), European stock markets are currently rallying off the days lows. Overall, we expect FX price action to remain choppy, but traders to respect the ranges. The BoE will hold its reverse action today but in smaller sizes, in order to spread out purchases to the next policy meeting (August 8th). Last week, the BoE opted not to expand its asset purchases until it has a better understanding of the effects. We believe the BoE will expand its purchases, potentially before Augusts meeting, which should be sterling negative. And in Japan, the ruling party of the LDP lost its majority, which means PM Aso will struggle to hold onto his position. We donÕt expect the political uncertainty to have a profound effect on JPY pricing, as the JPY has been trading largely on macro trends and not on underlying domestic activities.

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