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US Session: The Dollar Declines on the ISM Report, Combined with Positive Data from China and Germany
July 01, 2009 6:09 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Sek | 1.47 |  | | | Cad | 1.36 | | | | Nok | 1.32 | | | | Chf | 0.85 | | | | Dkk | 0.74 | | | | Eur | 0.72 | | | | Gbp | 0.22 | | | | Aud | 0.21 | |  | Jpy | -0.27 | | | Nzd | -0.43 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,548.88 | + 1.21 | | S&P 500 Index | 929.12 | + 1.07 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,858.05 | + 1.25 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9,970.00 | + 0.40 | | Hang Seng Futures | 18,420.00 | 0.00 | | FTSE futures | 4,306.50 | + 2.10 | | SMI Futures | 5,462.00 | + 1.37 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 70.29 | + 0.57 | | Gold | 938.43 | + 1.28 | | Silver | 13.74 | + 0.98 | | USD Index | 79.65 | - 0.63 | | VIX | 25.10 | - 4.74 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8375
R 2: 0.8263
R 1: 0.8150
CURRENT: 0.8066
S 1: 0.8025
S 2: 0.7985
S 3: 0.7930
EURJPY
R 3: 139.20
R 2: 138.33
R 1: 136.46
CURRENT: 136.14
S 1: 135.04
S 2: 134.35
S 3: 133.00
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4800
R 2: 1.4748
R 1: 1.4649
CURRENT: 1.4476
S 1: 1.4454
S 2: 1.4385
S 3: 1.4334
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Market Brief |
The dollar declined against majors as another green shoot from the ISM report prompted traders to move into higher-yields, buoyed by positive data rolled out from China and Germany. The EurUsd rose sharply by 110pips to 1.41, gaining support from the German retail sales number, which increased more than expected by 0.4% vs. -0.1% forecasted. The GbpUsd traded sideways in early trading, but rose after the ISM report and rose by 90pips to 1.65. The UsdJpy rose by 50pips to 96 amid positive manufacture data came out from China, whose PMI number rose to 53.2% vs. 54.5% forecasted, but still adding support to the green shoots theory as the world’s third-largest economy may lead the rest of the world out of the recession. Equity markets surged in both the US and Europe, with the Dow up by 115ppts or 1.36% and the FTSE higher by 87ppts or 2.06%. Commodity prices trended upward across the board with oil rebounded by $1.86 or 2.66% to $71bbl and trading towards $72bbl, gold rose by $12 or 1.38% to $940oz, fueled by a weakening dollar.
Positive economic data today provided boarder support to the green shoots theory and lifted consumers confidence in a recovery. ISM factory index rose to 44.8 vs. 44.5 forecasted, showing signs of the recession is easing as the US manufacturing activities contracted slower than expected consistent with the Chinese PMI number. As investors continue to seek sustainable evidence to support the green shoots theory, Traders are cautious to take on new positions ahead of the ECB meeting and the US nonfarm payroll report tomorrow. The San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said key rates may remain near zero for the next few years and added that the economy is about to “turn the corner,” lending support to the green shoots theory and pushed the dollar lower across the board.
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Asian Session: Mixed Tankan only rattles but doesn’t shake newfound optimism – Asia trades sideways.
July 01, 2009 11:24 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | SEK | 0.5800 | | | | NOK | 0.3559 | | | | CAD | 0.2222 | | | | CHF | 0.1464 | | | | DKK | 0.1457 | | | | EUR | 0.1153 | | | AUD | -0.1548 | | | NZD | -0.1703 | | | GBP | -0.2095 | | | JPY | -0.4883 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9939.93 | - 0.19 | | Hang Seng Index | 18378.73 | - 0.81 | | Shanghai Index | 3008.15 | + 1.65 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4309.83 | + 1.43 | | DAX Index | 4884.7 | + 1.58 | | DJIA futures | 8447 | - 0.97 | | Nasdaq futures | 1835.39 | + 0.84 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 931.75 | + 0.56 | | Silver | 13.63 | + 0.19 | | VIX | 26.35 | + 3.95 | | Crude wti | 70.85 | + 1.37 | | USD Index | 80.061 | - 0.12 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| US Challenger Job Cuts | - | 7.4% | USD / 11:30 | | US ADP Employment change | -394 | -532 | USD / 12:15 | | US ISM Manufacturing (JUN) | 44.0 | 42.8 | USD / 14:00 | | US Pending Home Sales | 0.0% | 6.7% | USD / 14:00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8375
R 2: 0.8263
R 1: 0.8150
CURRENT: 0.8066
S 1: 0.8025
S 2: 0.7985
S 3: 0.7930
EURJPY
R 3: 139.20
R 2: 138.33
R 1: 136.46
CURRENT: 136.14
S 1: 135.04
S 2: 134.35
S 3: 133.00
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4800
R 2: 1.4748
R 1: 1.4649
CURRENT: 1.4476
S 1: 1.4454
S 2: 1.4385
S 3: 1.4334
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Market Brief |
Asian markets traded sideways this morning as risk aversion returns as US consumer confidence figures. The Nikkei 225 was down -0.19% and the Hang-seng posted a -0.81% decline. The business sentiment in Japan improved from March’s reading and is expected to improve further in September. This said the Tankan failed to offer signs of a “broadening” or “self-sustained” economic recovery. The USDJPY continues to rise in stepping stone fashion, brief periods of consolidation followed by large moves. Risk averse driven moves seem to have waned on the pair (as opposed to the EURUSD dynamic).
Manufacturing numbers in China as China’s 4 trillion Yuan ($585 Bn) stimulus plan and record bank lending scheme have been hailed as a success. The world’s 3rd largest economy has posted a YTD GDP rise of 6% and the recent PMI reading of 53.2 (up from May’s 53.1 – while anything above 50 indicates expansion).
The optimism in the east is starkly contrasted by the tentative recovery efforts in the west. The U.S Confidence numbers out yesterday are testament to the fact that the V-shape recovery the “green-shoots” theory predicted is looking more and more like a pipe-dream. EURUSD dropped off it’s 1.4100 handle on the news. Tomorrow we have both the ECB rate decision and the U.S Non-farm payrolls (as Friday is a holiday – in preparation for the 4th of July festivities). We expect a big number in the wake of the GM and Chrysler massive layoffs.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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