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US Session: Dollar Rebounds Off NFP Data While Political Controversy Hurts Sterling
June 05, 2009 8:01 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
 | Aud | -0.29 | | | Nzd | -0.57 | | | Gbp | -1.06 | | | Dkk | -1.28 | | | Eur | -1.29 | | | Chf | -1.52 | | | Cad | -1.53 | | | Jpy | -1.70 | | | Nok | -1.86 | | | Sek | -1.97 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,803.16 | + 0.61 | | S&P 500 Index | 944.18 | + 0.18 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,852.61 | + 0.14 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9,830.00 | + 0.50 | | Hang Seng Futures | 18,646.00 | + 1.62 | | FTSE futures | 4,433.50 | + 0.97 | | SMI Futures | 5,410.00 | - 0.19 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 68.70 | - 0.16 | | Gold | 961.35 | - 1.93 | | Silver | 15.39 | - 3.18 | | USD Index | 80.54 | + 1.49 | | VIX | 29.21 | - 3.21 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8520
R 2: 0.8380
R 1: 0.8263
CURRENT: 0.8050
S 1: 0.7890
S 2: 0.7830
S 3: 0.7700
EURJPY
R 3: 141.75
R 2: 139.75
R 1: 138.57
CURRENT: 137.24
S 1: 133.90
S 2: 131.50
S 3: 130.73
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4748
R 2: 1.4665
R 1: 1.4580
CURRENT: 1.4462
S 1: 1.4320
S 2: 1.4270
S 3: 1.4167
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Market Brief |
The USD saw a brief downturn against a basket of currencies following the release of U.S. unemployment numbers for May, but began to rally shortly thereafter. . The U.S. dollar index dropped to 79.33 following the reported 345k jobs lost; much better than the 520k forecast. The labor department said the unemployment rate rose to 9.4%, the highest since July 1983. The EurUsd saw a sharp decline from $1.4266 to fall just below $1.40. The UsdJpy showed bullish movement, rising from $96.7 to over $98.2. The GbpUsd fell from $1.6241 to the $1.60 range on growing political turmoil. Equity markets were slightly flat in the US and Europe with the dow and FTSE up 52pts. Commodities were mixed with oil hovering near $69bbl, while gold fell swiftly to $962oz.
n London, heighted political tension sent the pound toward its biggest decline against the USD since April as government officials James Purnell and John Hutton resigned late yesterday and this morning, pressuring Prime Minister Gordon Brown to step down. Political uncertainty under the Brown administration has put downward pressure on the GBP. PPI was lower than expected at 0.4% vs. 0.8% easing inflation fears a bit. The euro rose against the USD on yesterday’s news from Trichet that interest rates will remain unchanged and that the worst of the economy’s decline may be nearing over the nexst few months. The Aussie and Kiwi strengthened as commodity prices rose, with oil advancing to a seven month high above $70bbl but pulled back to $69bbl as markets calmed following payroll figures. The Cad closed just shy of C$1.10 yesterday and is expected to reach parity with the USD in one year, however the Cad fell today after a government report showed employers eliminated more jobs in May than forecast.
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Asian Session: Central Banks out of the Way... on to NFP
June 05, 2009 1:08 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 0.99 |  | | | AUD | 0.74 | | | | DKK | 0.13 | | | | EUR | 0.11 | | | CHF | -0.01 | | | JPY | -0.23 | | | NOK | -0.24 | | | CAD | -0.29 | | | GBP | -0.49 | | | SEK | -0.69 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,768.01 | + 1.02 | | Hang Seng Index | 18,679.53 | + 0.95 | | Shanghai Index | 2,753.89 | - 0.48 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,437.52 | + 1.15 | | DAX Index | 5,067.71 | + 0.05 | | SMI Index | 5,433.64 | + 0.21 | | DJIA futures | 8,759.00 | + 0.33 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 977.93 | - 0.23 | | Silver | 15.74 | - 0.97 | | VIX | 30.18 | - 2.70 | | Crude wti | 68.76 | - 0.07 | | USD Index | 781.76 | - 0.30 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| ECB President Trichet speaks | -- | -- | EUR / 07.50 | | Manufacturing production, % m/m Apr | -0.5 | -0.6 | NOR / 08.00 | | Producer input prices, % m/m (y/y) May | 0.7 (-8.3) | -1.0, -5.0 | GBP / 8.30 | | Producer core output prices, % m/m (y/y) May | -- | 0.4 (2.4) | GBP / 8.30 | | Producer output prices, % m/m (y/y) May | 0.4 (-0.4) | 0.6 (1.2) | GBP / 8.30 | | Unemployment rate, % May | 8.3 | 8.0 | CAD / 11.00 | | Net change in employment, thous May | -42.5 | 35.9 | CAD / 11.00 | | Change in non-farm payrolls, thous May | -550 | -539 | USD / 12.30 | | Unemployment rate, % May | 9.2 | 8.9 | USD / 12.30 | | Average hourly earnings, % m/m (y/y) May | 0.2 (3.1) | 0.1 (3.2) | USD / 12.30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8520
R 2: 0.8380
R 1: 0.8263
CURRENT: 0.8050
S 1: 0.7890
S 2: 0.7830
S 3: 0.7700
EURJPY
R 3: 141.75
R 2: 139.75
R 1: 138.57
CURRENT: 137.24
S 1: 133.90
S 2: 131.50
S 3: 130.73
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4748
R 2: 1.4665
R 1: 1.4580
CURRENT: 1.4462
S 1: 1.4320
S 2: 1.4270
S 3: 1.4167
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Market Brief |
The Usd was stable in the Asian session, as markets absorbed yesterday’s central bank barrage. The EurUsd traded between 1.4170 and 1.4230, while the UsdJpy traded between 96.50 and 97.00. Overall, stronger equities and commodities, higher yields and weaker USD trend is intact. Following the S&P 1.14% gain, Asian regional indexes are broadly higher with the Nikkei advancing 1.02%. Commodities an energy prices continue to trade higher with Copper trading at 231.60 (retesting yearly highs), while Crude wti pierced the $69.00bll level (media is buzzing with new higher crude forecasts…but what happened to last year’s call that crude would never break below $100bll?). A quick recap of yesterday's Central Bank action has the BoE, ECB and BoC all holding rate steady. The Bank of England said that it would keep asset purchase under review rather then commit to expanding. On a side note, the Sterling took a massive hit (dropping over 2 big figures) as rumors swirled that Gordon Brown/ Alistair Darling had resigned. ECB President Trichet added slightly more details on the eur60bn cover bond purchase program. While his elaboration was limited Trichet did stress the fact that an appropriate exist strategy would be put into place when the economy turns around.. The BoC noted that confidence and financial conditions had improved but warned that the rapid rise in CAD could hurt the fragile recovery. Today we are watching The head and shoulder formation (5 min chart) that is setting us up for a reversal trend to at least 1.4050 (next crucial support) and the NFP's could bring the impetus for further dollar gains.
Today's session is chocked full of critical economic news and events in Europe and the US. The political situation in the UK haunts the Sterling, as witnessed by yesterday's Gbp collapse. Speculation is escalating that as more important allies are forced to leave the Cabinet, PM Brown will be pressured to resign. In the US session NFP will dominate. The report is expected to show another steep decline in payrolls and rise in the unemployment rate. The NFP forecast for today is in at -521K from last month's -539K. ADP Employment data on Wednesday (-532K vs. -525K cons) and yesterday's initial jobless claims (621K vs. 620K cons) were tentative signs of increasing stability in the jobless markets. However, have we digested all the jobs fallout from the GM and Chrysler debacle?? The Usd will likely to rally broadly (JPY exception) should the payroll number disappoint and vise versa
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