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US Session: The Reflation Trade Resumed Pressuring the Dollar to the Downside


June 04, 2009 11:38 PM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD
Cad1.15
Sek0.89
Gbp0.87
Nok0.82
Aud0.14
Dkk0.10
Chf0.10
Nzd-0.02
Eur-0.12
Jpy-0.62

Global Indexes Current Level % Change
DJIA Index8,750.24+ 0.86
S&P 500 Index942.46+ 1.15
NASDAQ 100 Index1,850.02+ 1.32
Nikkei 225 Futures9,740.00+ 0.51
Hang Seng Futures18,343.00+ 0.01
FTSE futures4,391.00+ 0.11
SMI Futures5,420.00+ 0.69

World Markets Current Level % Change
Crude wti68.71+ 3.92
Gold980.30+ 1.79
Silver15.89+ 3.52
USD Index79.36- 0.15
VIX30.18- 2.71

Todays Calender Estimates Previous Country / GMT
No Major Events Scheduled

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8583
R 2: 0.8520
R 1: 0.8378
CURRENT: 0.8169
S 1: 0.7900
S 2: 0.7800
S 3: 0.7703

EURJPY
R 3: 139.75
R 2: 138.57
R 1: 137.40
CURRENT: 136.35
S 1: 133.90
S 2: 131.50
S 3: 130.73

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4748
R 2: 1.4665
R 1: 1.4580
CURRENT: 1.4395
S 1: 1.4320
S 2: 1.4270
S 3: 1.4165

Market Brief

The dollar fell against the euro as the ECB shed a more positive light on the euro zone’s economy for the second half of the year. The EurUsd crept higher at $1.4160 after seeing a 100pt-swing in early session. The GbpUsd continued to edge down with the British pound dropped to $1.6118, compared with $1.6297 on Wednesday. Equity markets in U.S. and Europe remained flat, with the Dow and the FTSE up by 23pts and 0.37pts, or 0.28% and 0.02% respectively. The 10-year Treasury climbed for a second day to 3.64% as weak economic data casted doubts over a recovery. Commodities rebounded from yesterday’s decline, with Gold advanced by $12 to $976oz, while oil rose to $68, paring loss from last session’s dip.

The BOE kept its key rate at 0.5% and planed to continue the expected 125 billion pound QE. Stimulating monetary policy combined with rumors that Brown has resigned has caused the GBP to drop sharply. However, the sterling is quite likely to regain its shine from the UK’s better-than-expected economic data, mainly from the services sector. The ECB has kept its key rate at record low of 1%, causing the euro to drop against the dollar, but only to rebound later due to inflation projection and chairman Trichet’s consistent predictions on the bloc’s economy. The BOC decided to keep its interest rate at .25%. Comments by the BOC on its currency’s rally being a “threat to the economy” offset previous rally in commodity prices and investor confidence, causing the CAD to drop by 1%. The dollar rallied slightly following central banks’ decisions. The Dollar Indexed climbed more than 1% today. US job data will be announced tomorrow which was projected at 9.2%, highest level in decades. Fitch ratings reaffirmed US debt’s AAA level; combined with weak economic data and confidence from Asian countries will keep dollar away from its year low in short term. In longer term, however, a weakening dollar is still the general consensus.

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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
 
 
 
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