Daily Forex Snapshots

US Session: Weak Economic Data in US and UK Hamper Green Shoots Theory Leading to Dollar Strength

June 30, 2009 10:07 PM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	Aud	-0.20
	Jpy	-0.28
	Chf	-0.35
	Nok	-0.35
	Dkk	-0.35
	Eur	-0.36
	Cad	-0.49
	Gbp	-0.66
	Sek	-0.71
	Nzd	-0.86

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

DJIA Index	8,417.45	- 1.31
S&P 500 Index	915.49	- 1.27
NASDAQ 100 Index	1,828.85	- 0.83
Nikkei 225 Futures	9,930.00	+ 0.00
Hang Seng Futures	18,420.00	- 0.83
FTSE futures	4,221.50	- 0.83
SMI Futures	5,388.00	- 0.85

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Crude wti	69.61	- 2.63
Gold	928.48	- 1.01
Silver	13.61	- 1.88
USD Index	80.12	+ 0.30
VIX	27.08	+ 6.82

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

Currency Tech

AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8375
R 2: 0.8263
R 1: 0.8150
CURRENT: 0.8136
S 1: 0.8079
S 2: 0.7985
S 3: 0.7930

EURJPY
R 3: 139.20
R 2: 138.33
R 1: 135.35
CURRENT: 134.78
S 1: 133.38
S 2: 133.00
S 3: 131.41

USDSGD
R 3: 1.4800
R 2: 1.4748
R 1: 1.4649
CURRENT: 1.4466
S 1: 1.4454
S 2: 1.4385
S 3: 1.4334

Market Brief

The dollar appreciated against most of the G10 following a series of worst than expected economic news in the US and the UK. The EurUsd fell 41pips to the mid range of 1.40, while the UsdJpy added 25pips hovering above 96. The GbpUsd slid 100pips back below 1.65 a moderate pullback considering recent price action. Equity markets are negative in the US and Europe with the Dow lower by 1% or 80pts and the DAX weaker by 1.56% or 76pts. Bond prices fell across the curve with the latter end of the curve showing a yield of 4.32% in the 30yr rate. The movement in interest rates is representative of an unclear outlook regarding monetary policy and spots of oversupply in the treasury market. Commodities were lower in the precious metals and energy sectors with oil off 2.17% at $69bbl and gold down 2.7% to $928oz.

In the UK, GDP fell by 2.4% vs. 2.1%, which was a steeper than expected drop leading triggering an early selloff in the Sterling. Traders bid the cable back to normalized levels, but the currency would weaken again following negative news out of the US. The Case and Schiller Home Price Index dropped 18.1% vs. the consensus figure of -18.6%, while the data beat estimates it still reflects vulnerability in the housing sector. US consumer confidence dropped below 50 to 49.3, well below the forecasted 55.3 causing investors to take a more risk averse position in intraday trading. This activity benefited the dollar as the recovery story muted as Traders are forced to reevaluate the timing of a greater stabilization in the world economy.

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Asian Session: Chinese manufacturing data encourages while Japanese jobless data inline with expectations.

June 30, 2009 11:21 AM CEST

G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD

	GBP	0.8067
	AUD	0.7346
	SEK	0.5106
	JPY	0.3962
	CHF	0.3478
	CAD	0.3055
	NZD	0.2920
	NOK	0.2470
	EUR	0.2117
	DKK	0.2111

Global Indexes

Current Level

% Change

Nikkei 225 Index	9958.44	+ 1.79
Hang Seng Index	18515	- 0.07
Shanghai Index	2959	- 0.54
DAX Index	4878.53	- 0.14
FTSE 100 Index	4248	- 0.21
DJIA futures	8463	+ 0.06
Nasdaq futures	1482.75	+ 0.08

World Markets

Current Level

% Change

Gold	941.53	+ 0.38
Silver	14.045	+ 1.30
VIX	25.35	- 2.24
Crude wti	72.39	+ 1.26
USD Index	79.65	- 0.29

Todays Calender

Estimates

Country / GMT

CAD GDP (MoM)	-	-0.3%	CAD / 12:30
US Consumer Confidence	55.3	54.9	USD / 14:00
US ABC Consumer confidence	-51	-53	USD / 21:00

Currency Tech

Market Brief

The Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan said yesterday that the economy accelerated in the second quarter and that he expected the government’s 8% growth forecast was going to be met. Further data showed that during the month of June electricity consumption jumped by 3.8% from a year before. Reports from a large bank in the region stated that manufacturing activity had accrued in the month of June – this comes as a welcomed sign of a steady recovery in the region. China is largely believed to lead the region and the world out of this crisis – the Chinese economy expanded 6.1% in the first quarter, it’s weakest in a decade – but leaps and bounds better than any other large economy.

Japan’s jobless rate rose a new 5-1/2 year high in May while availability for jobs fell aswell. This said household spending and consumption rose, analysts believe we should see a modest improvement in the Japanese economy as soon as this quarter – however, sluggish domestic demand and poor production levels continue to plague Japan’s rebound attempts.

USDJPY continues to trade it’s 95.00 – 96.60 range with a modest tendancy for the downside. EURUSD tries for new highs, breaking away from it’s previous weekly high of 1.4140 – now capped at June 11th high of 1.4180.

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