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US Session: Comments from Russia Prompt Dollar Weakness, Aided by Better Housing Data
June 16, 2009 11:22 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Cad | 0.09 |  | | | Aud | 0.08 | | | | Eur | 0.03 | | | | Dkk | 0.02 | | | | Jpy | 0.02 | | | | Chf | 0.01 | |  | Nok | -0.06 | | | Nzd | -0.07 | | | Gbp | -0.07 | | | Sek | -0.09 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,504.67 | - 1.25 | | S&P 500 Index | 911.97 | - 1.27 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,796.18 | - 1.11 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9,810.00 | + 0.41 | | Hang Seng Futures | 18,037.00 | + 2.12 | | FTSE futures | 4,331.50 | + 0.06 | | SMI Futures | 5,379.00 | - 0.28 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 70.23 | - 0.54 | | Gold | 935.10 | + 0.03 | | Silver | 14.21 | + 0.00 | | USD Index | 80.74 | - 0.47 | | VIX | 32.68 | + 6.07 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8375
R 2: 0.8260
R 1: 0.8108
CURRENT: 0.7962
S 1: 0.7828
S 2: 0.7745
S 3: 0.7700
EURJPY
R 3: 139.0
R 2: 138.30
R 1: 135.30
CURRENT: 134.00
S 1: 131.50
S 2: 129.70
S 3: 126.97
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4800
R 2: 1.4748
R 1: 1.4665
CURRENT: 1.4563
S 1: 1.4425
S 2: 1.4355
S 3: 1.4335
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Market Brief |
The dollar weakened against most majors as the Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that the world needs new reserve currencies, putting pressure on the dollar. The EurUsd rose 130pips, hovering around the 1.39 level. The UsdJpy fell to 96.618 while the GbpUsd gained 188pips on the back of the broad decline in the dollar. Equity markets remained flat in the US and Europe session with the Dow up 7pts or 0.09% and the FTSE up 11pts or 0.27%. The 10yr bond yield dropped 0.01 to 3.75% after reaching the 4% level last week. Commodities edged up across the board with oil climbing back to $72bbl, while gold recouped losses and rose to $936oz.
Green shoots theory continued to drive the market as investors are looking for signs that the worst of the recession is coming to an end. The dollar tumbled against most majors as the Russian President called for new reserve currencies. The BRIC meeting wrapped up without direct reference to the dollar reserve status, but the nations did consider purchasing bonds and swapping currencies from each other to reduce dependence on the dollar. The euro regained ground against the dollar in light of the better-than-expected German investor confidence, rising to a three-year high. The dollar dipped further against the euro after U.S. housing starts came out better than expected, up 17.2% in May. Investors remain vigilant of potential inflation with economic indicators being closely monitored. The U.S. Producer Price Index rose less than expected at 0.2%, but core inflation over the past year rose 3.0%. As energy prices continued to trend upward, the steady rise paves the way to a broader increase in prices. The slight increase in producer prices boosted prospects for a recovery and put pressure on the dollar. Investors swung between positive and negative news on the U.S. economy, prompting them to move between the dollar and higher yields.
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Asian Session: Cautious Ahead of BRIC Summit Today
June 16, 2009 11:06 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 1.47 | | | | NZD | 0.63 | | | | SEK | 0.60 | | | | DKK | 0.56 | | | | EUR | 0.50 | | | | NOK | 0.43 | | | | CHF | 0.40 | | | | CAD | 0.38 | | | | GBP | 0.35 | | | | AUD | 0.26 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,752.88 | - 2.87 | | Hang Seng Index | 18,078.97 | - 2.27 | | Shanghai Index | 2,776.02 | - 0.48 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,325.94 | - 0.01 | | DAX Index | 4,878.74 | - 0.22 | | SMI Index | 5,363.05 | - 0.68 | | DJIA futures | 8,615.00 | - 0.04 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 935.30 | + 0.74 | | Silver | 14.29 | + 1.52 | | VIX | 30.81 | + 9.44 | | Crude wti | 70.69 | + 0.09 | | USD Index | 80.67 | - 0.56 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| CPI, % m/m (y/y) May | 0.3 (1.9) | 0.3 (2.3) | GBP / 08.30 | | ZEW Economic Expectations Index Jun | 35.0 | 31.1 | EUR / 09.00 | | HICP, % m/m (y/y) May | 0.0 (0.0) | 0.0 "flash | EUR / 09.00 | | Labour costs, % q/q Q1 | 2.9 | 3.8 | EUR / 09.00 | | ''ECB' core (HICP x unproc.fd, ene), % m/m (y/y) M | 0.0 (1.5) | 0.4 (1.7) | EUR / 09.00 | | PPI, % m/m (y/y) May | 0.6 (-4.4) | 0.3 (-3.7) | USD / 12.30 | | Core PPI, % m/m (y/y) May | 0.1 (3.2) | 0.1 (3.4) | USD / 12.30 | | Housing starts, mn units saar May | 0.480 | 0.458 | USD / 12.30 | | Building permits, mn units saar May | 0.500 | 0.498 | USD / 12.30 | | Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) May | -0.8,-13.0 | -0.5,-12.5 | USD / 13.15 | | Industrial production: mfg, % m/m (y/y) May | -- | -0.3,-14.5 | USD / 13.15 | | Capacity utilisation, % May | 68.5 | 69.1 | USD / 13.15 | | CBT interest rate announcement, % Jun | 9.00 | 9.25 | TRY / 16.00 | | Fed Governor Warsh (FOMC voter) speaks on economic | -- | -- | USD / 18.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8375
R 2: 0.8260
R 1: 0.8108
CURRENT: 0.7962
S 1: 0.7828
S 2: 0.7745
S 3: 0.7700
EURJPY
R 3: 139.0
R 2: 138.30
R 1: 135.30
CURRENT: 134.00
S 1: 131.50
S 2: 129.70
S 3: 126.97
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4800
R 2: 1.4748
R 1: 1.4665
CURRENT: 1.4563
S 1: 1.4425
S 2: 1.4355
S 3: 1.4335
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Market Brief |
The USD gave back some of its recent gains in the Asian Session. The EURUSD traded higher to 1.3877 from 1.3760, while the USDJPY traded lower to 96.08 from 97.80. JPY crosses came under significant selling pressure, as risk appetite continues to deteriorate. The EURJPY traded to 132.75 low, while the AUDJPY slid to 76.07 from 77.50. Markets will be cautiously watching today’s BRIC summit. Today, the Kremlin reversed recent comments, by stating that Russia will raise the topic of reserve currency. There was a small but noticeable reaction in FX markets on the news, which highlights how sensitive traders are to comments from this conference. We are concerned about the sudden shift in rhetoric and are advising clients to be wary of event risks today. The minutes of the RBA's June board meeting suggests that it is still open to additional rate cuts, if the data warrants. While the RBA minutes highlighted improvements in global economic and financial conditions and local economic data, it also notes that these improvements remain vulnerable to reversal.
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US Session: Dollar rallies on positive G8 meeting, driving risk-averse behavior
June 16, 2009 12:31 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Jpy | 0.12 | | | | Cad | 0.08 | | | | Nok | 0.02 | | | Gbp | -0.09 | | | Chf | -0.13 | | | Aud | -0.13 | | | Eur | -0.14 | | | Dkk | -0.15 | | | Sek | -0.20 | | | Nzd | -0.26 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,612.13 | - 2.13 | | S&P 500 Index | 923.72 | - 2.38 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,816.38 | - 2.28 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9,960.00 | - 0.80 | | Hang Seng Futures | 18,240.00 | - 0.01 | | FTSE futures | 4,329.00 | - 2.38 | | SMI Futures | 5,394.00 | - 2.25 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 70.62 | - 1.97 | | Gold | 928.50 | + 0.02 | | Silver | 14.10 | + 0.18 | | USD Index | 81.12 | + 1.22 | | VIX | 30.81 | + 9.45 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8519
R 2: 0.8378
R 1: 0.8263
CURRENT: 0.8014
S 1: 0.7968
S 2: 0.7828
S 3: 0.7745
EURJPY
R 3: 144.61
R 2: 141.75
R 1: 139.22
CURRENT: 136.27
S 1: 135.30
S 2: 133.89
S 3: 131.49
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4803
R 2: 1.4748
R 1: 1.4666
CURRENT: 1.4584
S 1: 1.4425
S 2: 1.4386
S 3: 1.4336
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Market Brief |
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies following a resurgence of risk aversion in the market. The EurUsd fell 185pips while UsdJpy gained. The GbpUsd fell 113 pips.; Equity markets fell 2.06% or 181.16pts and the FTSE was down 2.61% or 115.94pts. The yield curve on 10 year US treasury notes fell .07% to 3.74%. Commodities were weaker today with oil finding support at $70bbl and gold hovering above $928oz.
The dollar extended gains versus the euro as Russian finance minister Alexei Kudrin said his country has full confidence in the U.S. dollar at the G8 meeting over the weekend. Russian confidence and U.S. data reporting that the factory sector contracted at a deeper rate this month helped send the dollar to a high of $1.4337. In Europe, the euro fell against most majors in response to comments by the president of the German chamber of commerce and industry, who said the nation’s credit and funding conditions are worsening. The euro was also hurt by weaker than expected industrial production data from last week. The Bank of England seeks to increase its 150 billion pound asset buying program to fight inflation; 5bln pounds worth of bonds are being put up for auction tomorrow. Sterling is expected to weaken against the dollar in the short term as risk averse behavior becomes more prominent. In the UK, 10 year gilts also dropped, but by 4bp.Falling commodity prices put downward pressure on the Aussie and kiwi for first time in three days and loonie fell to a three week low despite a positive G8 meeting.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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