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US Session: Central Banks Keep Rates on Hold in Europe and Asia Putting Pressure on the Dollar
June 11, 2009 8:29 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Nzd | 3.11 |  | | | Aud | 2.34 | | | | Gbp | 1.54 | | | | Nok | 1.39 | | | | Sek | 1.29 | | | | Chf | 1.21 | | | | Eur | 1.13 | | | | Dkk | 1.14 | | | | Cad | 1.03 | | | | Jpy | 0.69 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,810.74 | + 0.82 | | S&P 500 Index | 947.57 | + 0.90 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,869.29 | + 0.88 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 10,020.00 | + 0.00 | | Hang Seng Futures | 18,790.00 | + 0.71 | | FTSE futures | 4,471.00 | + 0.94 | | SMI Futures | 5,494.00 | + 1.03 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 72.04 | + 1.00 | | Gold | 954.65 | + 0.02 | | Silver | 15.33 | + 0.92 | | USD Index | 79.67 | - 0.83 | | VIX | 27.21 | - 4.39 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8520
R 2: 0.8378
R 1: 0.8263
CURRENT: 0.8095
S 1: 0.7828
S 2: 0.7745
S 3. 0.7700
EURJPY
R 3: 144.60
R 2: 141.75
R 1: 139.75
CURRENT: 136.75
S 1: 135.30
S 2: 133.89
S 3: 131.50
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4803
R 2: 1.4748
R 1: 1.4666
CURRENT: 1.4532
S 1: 1.4425
S 2: 1.4385
S 3: 1.4335
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Market Brief |
The dollar fell against most of the G10 as central banks in Europe and Asia decided to keep rates on hold. The EurUsd rose 160pips to the mid range of 1.41, while the UsdJpy slipped 60pips to 97.50. The GbpUsd skyrocketed 230pips testing the 1.66 level, a consistent trend with the majors today. Equity markets performed positively in Europe and have maintained a upward momentum in the US session with the Dow up 100pts or 1%. Commodities are stronger across the board in both the energy and precious metals markets with oil higher by 2.30% or $73bbl behind what seems to be strong momentum. On the fixed income side, this afternoon’s treasury auction drew strong attention with the 30yr climbing above 4.00% as investors becoming slightly more attracted to these instruments considering higher yields.
Interest rates and the dollar’s status as a reserve currency continued to weigh on the dollar. 10-year Treasury yields topped 4% but settled at 3.973% yesterday, spurring concerns over steeper increases. High rates made refinancing unattractive with 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at 5.79%. Comments from Russia and Brazil on diversifying out their dollar-dominated reserves to purchase IMF bonds mounted pressure on the dollar and sent Treasury yields to their peak. In addition, Traders seem to be increasingly speculative regarding the timeliness of an economic recovery, and the uncertainty in the marketplace has contributed to moderate volatility on the FX side. The dollar edged up against the yen in intraday trading by roughly 0.5% as U.S. retail sales and initial jobless claims fell to 601,000, which was better than expected adding more credibility to the green shoots theory.
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Asian Session: RBNZ Holds Rates at 2.50%
June 11, 2009 11:19 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 1.42 | | | | AUD | 0.68 | | | | CAD | 0.57 | | | | JPY | 0.46 | | | | GBP | 0.31 | |  | EUR | -0.04 | | | DKK | -0.07 | | | NOK | -0.09 | | | CHF | -0.10 | | | SEK | -0.12 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,981.33 | - 0.10 | | Hang Seng Index | 18,737.77 | - 0.25 | | Shanghai Index | 2,797.32 | - 0.67 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,419.55 | - 0.33 | | DAX Index | 5,059.77 | + 0.17 | | SMI Index | 5,461.44 | + 0.46 | | DJIA futures | 8,759.00 | + 0.05 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 953.15 | - 0.14 | | Silver | 15.15 | - 0.26 | | VIX | 28.46 | + 0.67 | | Crude wti | 71.41 | + 0.11 | | USD Index | 80.14 | - 0.23 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| ECB monthly bulletin published | -- | -- | EUR / 08.00 | | BoE Inflation Attitudes Survey, % 1yr ahead | -- | 2.1 | GBP / 08.30 | | Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) | 0.3 (-9.9) | -0.4,-10.1 | USD / 12.30 | | Initial jobless claims, ‘000 (4wk mvg avg) | -- | 621 (631) | USD / 12.30 | | Retail sales ex autos, % m/m (y/y) | 0.2 (-7.9) | -0.5,-7.7 | USD / 12.30 | | Business inventories, % m/m (y/y) | -1.0,-6.2 | -1.2,-4.9 | USD / 14.00 | | FRB of Atlanta President Lockhart (FOMC voter) spe | -- | -- | USD / 17.05 | | Retail sales % m/m | 0.2 | -0.4 | NZD / 21.45 | | Retail sales ex autos % m/m | 0.4 | 0.5 | NZD / 21.45 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8520
R 2: 0.8378
R 1: 0.8263
CURRENT: 0.8095
S 1: 0.7828
S 2: 0.7745
S 3. 0.7700
EURJPY
R 3: 144.60
R 2: 141.75
R 1: 139.75
CURRENT: 136.75
S 1: 135.30
S 2: 133.89
S 3: 131.50
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4803
R 2: 1.4748
R 1: 1.4666
CURRENT: 1.4532
S 1: 1.4425
S 2: 1.4385
S 3: 1.4335
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Market Brief |
The Usd was range bound in the Asian Session. The EurUsd traded between1.3940-1.4060 and the USDJPY traded from a high of 98.30 to a low of 97.75. Asian regional indexes are flat following Wall Street's lower close. Crude prices continue to strengthen rising to a 7 month high of $72.16bll. Yesterday's US 10yr auction was not a smashing success but still managed bid-cover ratio and awards to indirect bidders to be respectable (although at 34.7% yesterday was higher than average). The media is still buzzing due to several major EM such as Russia, China and Brazil have expressed interest to diversify outside the the Usd. Hoever, currently we have seen no eveidence of this occuring or corresponding Usd selloff. The Fed's Beige Book failed to provide any real insight, mimicking the previous report, stating the US economy "remained weak or deteriorated" but showed signs of the slump "moderating.” In New Zealand, the RBNZ held rates at 2.50%. It seems that the market was pricing in a cut as the Nzd rapidly rose to 0.6380 against the Usd. The RBNZ stated that recent improvement in domestic activity has balanced downside risks to the economy and the need to monitor past rate cuts. Today US retail sales with be significant since it will be the first real test to the theory that FX markets are shifting their reaction to positive US data. Currently, the trend is counter intuitive but recent behaviors suggest this might be changing back to pro US equals positive USD and negative EM and commodities.
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