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US Session: Positive Bias Builds Ahead of Bank Stress Tests Aussie and Kiwi Rally
May 06, 2009 11:14 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Aud | 0.83 |  | | | Cad | 0.74 | | | | Nzd | 0.67 | | | | Sek | 0.61 | | | | Jpy | 0.61 | | | | Nok | 0.51 | | | | Gbp | 0.30 | | | | Chf | 0.09 | | | | Eur | 0.06 | | | | Dkk | 0.06 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,426.74 | + 2.61 | | S&P 500 Index | 907.24 | + 3.39 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,763.56 | + 2.58 | | FTSE futures | 4,193.50 | + 0.01 | | CAC futures | 3,209.50 | + 2.84 | | DAX futures | 4,899.50 | + 2.11 | | SMI Futures | 5,320.00 | + 1.99 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 54.44 | - 0.06 | | Gold | 904.12 | + 0.22 | | Silver | 13.07 | + 0.23 | | USD Index | 83.75 | + 0.04 | | VIX | 34.53 | - 2.18 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7738
R 2: 0.7560
R 1: 0.7479
CURRENT: 0.7415
S 1: 0.7300
S 2: 0.7233
S 3: 0.7049
EURJPY
R 3: 135.57
R 2: 134.33
R 1: 132.88
CURRENT: 131.02
S 1: 128.93
S 2: 126.63
S 3: 124.39
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5090
R 2: 1.4979
R 1: 1.4882
CURRENT: 1.4758
S 1: 1.4675
S 2: 1.4501
S 3: 1.4446
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Market Brief |
The dollar slid against most of the G10 as risk appetite rose ahead of bank stress-test results and central bank meetings this week. The EurUsd ended mostly flat trading near yesterday's close of 1.33, while the UsdJpy fell 52pips to the low range of 98. The GbpUsd gained 43pips to the lower price area of 1.51, mostly based on volatility as opposed to any momentum. The equity markets performed positively in the US and Europe with the Dow and FTSE higher by 1.2%. Bond yields were fairly balanced, as the 2yr rate remains below 1.00% at 0.96%, and the 10yr slightly over 3.00%. Commodities surged as the inflation story returned bolstering crude oil to $56bbl and spot gold to $911oz.
The sentiment regarding the financial markets improved led by the financial sector as a growing consensus of investors expect that banks will not need as much capital as anticiapted. The behavior in FX markets was consistent with the risk aversion trade, with diminshed dollar strength and appreciation in higher yielding currencies. We hold a cautiously optimistic view ahead of the stress test results, as the overall market recovery will be a long arduous process. In addition, Traders will be looking for commentary from the ECB following their meeting, we are expecting a 25bps cut in the refi rate to 1.00%.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMNY makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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Asian Session – Focus on Bank Stress Test Dents Risk Appetite
May 06, 2009 10:13 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | JPY | 0.29 | | | | NZD | 0.08 | | | | CAD | 0.07 | |  | AUD | -0.11 | | | CHF | -0.28 | | | NOK | -0.34 | | | EUR | -0.39 | | | DKK | -0.40 | | | GBP | -0.43 | | | SEK | -0.87 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 8,977.37 | + 1.68 | | Hang Seng Index | 16,745.75 | + 1.92 | | Shanghai Index | 2,592.52 | + 0.98 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,332.36 | - 0.10 | | DAX Index | 4,843.45 | - 0.19 | | SMI Index | 5,262.97 | - 0.34 | | DJIA futures | 8,334.00 | + 0.14 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 902.35 | + 0.58 | | Silver | 13.43 | + 0.67 | | VIX | 33.36 | - 3.38 | | Crude wti | 54.19 | + 0.65 | | USD Index | 84.13 | - 0.03 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Services PMI, index Apr | 46.0 | 45.5 | GBP / 8.28 | | ECB Board Member Tumpel-Gugerell speaks | -- | -- | EUR / 9.30 | | Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Mar | 0.1,-2.6 | -0.6,-4.0 | EUR / 9.00 | | Norges bank interest rate announcement, % May | -- | -- | NOR / 12.00 | | ADP payrolls (chg, k) Apr | -645 | -742 | USD / 12.15 | | Ivey PMI Apr | 40.5 | 43.2 | CAD / 14.00 | | FRB of Minneapolis President Stern (FOMC non-voter | -- | -- | USD / 13.30 | | SNB Chairman Roth speaks | -- | -- | CHF / 16.15 | | FRB of San Francisco President Yellen (FOMC voter) | -- | -- | USD / 21.30 | | Unemployment rate % Q1 | 5.3 | 4.6 | NZD / 22.45 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7738
R 2: 0.7560
R 1: 0.7479
CURRENT: 0.7415
S 1: 0.7300
S 2: 0.7233
S 3: 0.7049
EURJPY
R 3: 135.57
R 2: 134.33
R 1: 132.88
CURRENT: 131.02
S 1: 128.93
S 2: 126.63
S 3: 124.39
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5090
R 2: 1.4979
R 1: 1.4882
CURRENT: 1.4758
S 1: 1.4675
S 2: 1.4501
S 3: 1.4446
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Market Brief |
The Usd was stronger in tbe Asian session, as the focus on the US bank stress test results intensified. The EurUsd traded down to 1.3247 from 1.3320, while the UsdJpy fell to 97.95 from 98.97..Yen's crosses were sold off after the newswires suggested a large US bank would need additional capital. The AUDJPY went through 72.50 and the EURJPY is trading down to the low of 130.20 lvl. Despite good economic data and inspired comments from the Fed, risky assets are still slightly weaker. US equity markets softened, with the Dow down by 0.2% to 8410.7 while Asian indexes are gnerally higher. Although the official results are not expected until May 7th, the Fed informed the 19 banks undergoing stress tests of their results yesterday. Newswires reports suggest that BofA will need an additional $34bn of capital, which would be the largest requirement of all 19 banks tested. The current market expectation is that a large share of the capital raising would come from converting preferred shares into common equity and the WSJ reports that most banks would not have to tap the remaining TARP funds. In addition yesterday, Fed's Bernanke testified to the Joint Economic Committee and provided an optimistic outlook, saying "We continue to expect economic activity to bottom out, then to turn up later this year". However, he added "An important caveat is that our forecast assumes continuing gradual repair of the financial system; a relapse in financial conditions would be a significant drag on economic activity and could cause the incipient recovery to stall." Ahead today, the ADP employment for April will provide the market a rough guide on what to expect for the non-farm payrolls report on Friday.
In Australia, in seasonally adjusted terms, retail sales surged 2.2% higher in March. This was well ahead of market expectations (+0.5%), which suggest that the government’s second emergency stimulus package has gained traction in the retail sector. Other government data on Wednesday showed the country's trade surplus increased 43% in March, again well above expectations, as exports remained remarkably resilient while imports fell again.
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US Session: Market Shaken Ahead of Stress Test Results Dollar
May 06, 2009 12:53 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| Cad | -0.04 | | | Nzd | -0.06 | | | Jpy | -0.08 | | | Eur | -0.10 | | | Dkk | -0.10 | | | Gbp | -0.12 | | | Chf | -0.12 | | | Nok | -0.12 | | | Aud | -0.17 | | | Sek | -0.16 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,426.74 | + 2.61 | | S&P 500 Index | 907.24 | + 3.39 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,763.56 | + 2.58 | | FTSE futures | 4,193.50 | + 0.01 | | CAC futures | 3,209.50 | + 2.84 | | DAX futures | 4,899.50 | + 2.11 | | SMI Futures | 5,320.00 | + 1.99 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 54.44 | - 0.06 | | Gold | 904.12 | + 0.22 | | Silver | 13.07 | + 0.23 | | USD Index | 83.75 | + 0.04 | | VIX | 34.53 | - 2.18 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.7820
R 2: 0.7740
R 1: 0.7560
CURRENT: 0.7392
S 1: 0.7233
S 2: 0.7050
S 3: 0.6954
EURJPY
R 3: 137.40
R 2: 135.57
R 1: 134.33
CURRENT: 132.21
S 1: 130.30
S 2: 128.90
S 3: 126.63
USDSGD
R 3: 1.5090
R 2: 1.4980
R 1: 1.4880
CURRENT: 1.4737
S 1: 1.4675
S 2: 1.4500
S 3: 1.4445
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Market Brief |
The recent rally in financial markets broke after several consecutive session of positive performance in equities. The dollar managed to rally against most of the major with the exception of the Sterling and Euro ahead of tomorrow's Central Bank meeting. We do not expect any drastic action on behalf of the BoE, but will be watching for any further clarity ECB President Trichet beyond the 25bps most of the market has priced in. Price action has been limited, which is no surprise before a series of major monetary policy meetings as well as event risk stemming from the stress tests results. A major shift in favor of risk aversion will sweep through global markets if stress tests are any trace more disappointing in comparison to early cautions from the Federal Reserve. The dollar will benefit tremedously from any flight to quality, pressuring the Euro, Sterling, Aussie, and Kiwi. These currencies have been far more sensitive to trends in risk appetite, and are likely to react strongly to announcements tomorrow.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMNY makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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