|
|
US Session: Dollar Deviates From Risk Aversion Story as Traders Look for Hard Fundamentals
May 28, 2009 3:42 PM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Nzd | 1.55 |  | | | Aud | 0.62 | | | | Eur | 0.29 | | | | Dkk | 0.31 | | | | Chf | 0.31 | | | | Cad | 0.25 | | | | Sek | 0.03 | |  | Gbp | -0.21 | | | Nok | -0.21 | | | Jpy | -1.76 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| DJIA Index | 8,373.14 | + 0.88 | | S&P 500 Index | 901.75 | + 0.97 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,749.56 | + 1.07 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,343.50 | - 1.31 | | CAC 40 Index | 3,242.50 | - 1.20 | | DAX Index | 4,937.50 | - 1.31 | | SMI Index | 5,347.00 | - 1.58 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Crude wti | 63.60 | + 0.24 | | Gold | 949.65 | - 0.03 | | Silver | 14.84 | + 0.61 | | USD Index | 80.88 | + 0.15 | | VIX | 32.36 | + 5.68 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| New Home Sales | 360k | 356k | US/22:00 | | Mortgage Deliquencies | 7.88% | 7.88% | US/22:00 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8150
R 2: 0.8097
R 1: 0.7929
CURRENT: 0.7832
S 1: 0.7703
S 2: 0.7630
S 3: 0.7450
EURJPY
R 3: 135.57
R 2: 134.80
R 1: 133.60
CURRENT: 134.52
S 1: 131.50
S 2: 130.73
S 3: 129.73
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4803
R 2: 1.4748
R 1: 1.4665
CURRENT: 1.4535
S 1: 1.4320
S 2: 1.4270
S 3: 1.4165
|
|
Market Brief |
The trend in dollar strength has deviated from the risk aversion trade and seems to be moving
more in line with hard economic data. Traders are using the economic story to build a case whether or
not financial markets are poised for a recovery sooner than expected. The EurUsd rose 45pips to the
high 1.38 price area, while the UsdJpy surged 180pips settling around the low range of 97. The GbpUsd
is starting to pullback after several consecutive sessions of gains pushing the pair through 1.60 for the
first time since October of last year. Equity futures are pointing to a positive open in the US, however
stock indexes continue to trade lower in Europe with the DAX lower by 1.24%. Commodities gained in
both the energy and precious metals sectors, with oil at 63bbl, and gold hovering around $955oz.
Among other asset classes bond yields gained substantially specifically in the 10yr treasury, which rose
approximately 20bps in the previous session. Serious concerns surrounding rising mortgage rates may
hinder expectations for faster than expected economic recovery. The housing sector which has
undergone significant pressure is largely reliant on the historically low interest rate environment.
The Green Shoots theory is gaining traction with durable goods solidified optimists assertions that
financial markets may take a turn for the better. Durable goods came in 1.9% vs. the consensus figure of
0.5%, which was followed by better than expected initial jobless claims at 623k vs. 628k. The initial
reaction of the dollar was limited, but Traders eventually shifted into higher yielding currencies like the
Aussie and Kiwi. FX seems to be moving in a more independent direction and we may see a break in the
correlation between currencies and equities which has previous held strong during the low points of the
crisis.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex
contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be
aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing.
The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMNY makes a strong
effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or
complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material
change.
|
|
Asian Session: Markets Watch Cautiously the Move in Treasurys
May 28, 2009 1:25 PM CEST
|
|
G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | NZD | 0.50 | | | CHF | -0.22 | | | EUR | -0.29 | | | DKK | -0.32 | | | AUD | -0.40 | | | CAD | -0.56 | | | GBP | -0.83 | | | NOK | -0.91 | | | SEK | -1.76 | | | JPY | -2.00 | |
|
|
Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,451.39 | + 0.13 | | Hang Seng Index | 17,885.27 | + 5.26 | | Shanghai Index | 2,632.93 | + 1.71 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,374.33 | - 0.94 | | DAX Index | 4,953.06 | - 0.95 | | SMI Index | 5,368.03 | - 0.94 | | DJIA futures | 8,331.00 | + 0.41 |
|
|
World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
|
| Gold | 949.60 | - 0.03 | | Silver | 14.83 | + 0.50 | | VIX | 32.36 | + 5.68 | | Crude wti | 63.39 | - 0.09 | | USD Index | 80.80 | + 0.04 |
|
|
Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
|
| Consumer confidence, index May | -30 | -31 | EUR / 09.00 | | Industrial confidence, index May | -33 | -35 | EUR / 09.00 | | CBI distributive trades, reported sales May | -11 | 3 | GBP / 10.00 | | Durable goods new orders, % m/m (y/y) Apr | 0.5,-24.4 | -0.8,-25.6 | USD / 12.30 | | Initial jobless claims, thous (4wk mvg avg) 23-May | 635 | 631 (629) | USD / 12.30 | | New home sales, thous. saar Apr | 363 | 356 | USD / 14.00 | | Bundesbank President Weber speaks at a seminar on | -- | -- | EUR / 14.15 | | BoE Deputy Governor Paul Tucker speaks at Bank of | -- | -- | GBP / 14.25 | | GfK consumer confidence survey, bal May | -25 | -27 | GBP / 23.01 | | Unemployment rate, % Apr | 5.0 | 4.8 | JPY / 23.30 | | Job application ratio (x) Apr | 0.49 | 0.52 | JPY / 23.30 | | Household consumption, % y/y Apr | -0.7 | -0.4 | JPY / 23.30 | | Tokyo core CPI, % y/y May | -0.6 | 0.0 | JPY / 23.30 | | Nationwide core CPI, % y/y Apr | -0.1 | -0.1 | JPY / 23.30 | | Industrial production, % m/m Apr | 3.3 | 1.6 | JPY / 23.30 |
|
|
|
Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8150
R 2: 0.8097
R 1: 0.7929
CURRENT: 0.7832
S 1: 0.7703
S 2: 0.7630
S 3: 0.7450
EURJPY
R 3: 135.57
R 2: 134.80
R 1: 133.60
CURRENT: 134.52
S 1: 131.50
S 2: 130.73
S 3: 129.73
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4803
R 2: 1.4748
R 1: 1.4665
CURRENT: 1.4535
S 1: 1.4320
S 2: 1.4270
S 3: 1.4165
|
|
Market Brief |
The Usd was stronger in the Asian Session, as investors retreated from risky assets. The EurUsd traded down to 1.3793 from 1.3940, while the UsdJpy from 97.05 to 95.50. However, FX took a back seat to the rather large selloff in the Treasury market. Investors retreated as Treasury yields pushed higher (US 10 year yield is now close to 3.70%, 50bp higher than a week ago), despite the fact that second Treasury auction this week was well-received with a bid/cover ratio of 2.32 vs. 2.16 prior. Perhaps the lone risk trigger was the report from the FDIC is that bank credit problems still persist. In Australia. Q1's Capex dropped by 8.9% on the quarter, slightly weaker than the expectations of a 7.0% decline. While UK CBI distributive trades survey reported sales, US durable goods, initial claims, US new homes sales will provide the market with plently of talking points. However in our book the most important event will be the Treasury auction of $25bn of 7yr debt and movement in the fixed income market.
|
|
ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
|
| |
|
|
| |
| |
|