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US Session: Dollar Strength Wavering in Tandem with Trends in Economic Data
May 27, 2009 10:08 PM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Gbp | 0.85 |  | | | Cad | 0.41 | | | | Aud | 0.13 | |  | Jpy | -0.05 | | | Chf | -0.26 | | | Nzd | -0.29 | | | Nok | -0.35 | | | Dkk | -0.39 | | | Eur | -0.42 | | | Sek | -1.19 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,471.10 | - 0.03 | | S&P 500 Index | 911.22 | + 0.10 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,756.31 | + 0.33 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9,460.00 | + 0.31 | | Hang Seng Futures | 17,859.00 | + 5.61 | | FTSE futures | 4,392.50 | - 0.13 | | SMI Futures | 5,410.00 | - 0.35 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 63.14 | + 1.11 | | Gold | 953.65 | + 0.17 | | Silver | 14.67 | + 0.41 | | USD Index | 80.17 | + 0.10 | | VIX | 30.51 | - 0.36 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8152
R 2: 0.8095
R 1: 0.7930
CURRENT: 0.7890
S 1: 0.7630
S 2: 0.7450
S 3: 0.7337
EURJPY
R 3: 135.57
R 2: 134.80
R 1: 133.60
CURRENT: 133.30
S 1: 131.50
S 2: 130.73
S 3: 129.73
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4803
R 2: 1.4748
R 1: 1.4666
CURRENT: 1.4492
S 1: 1.4320
S 2: 1.4270
S 3: 1.4167
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Market Brief |
The dollar is higher against most of the G10, but failed to post gains versus the Gbp, Cad, Aussie, and Jpy. The EurUsd fell 50pips finding support at the low range of 1.39, while the UsdJpy trades sideways barely unchanged from the previous session’s close of 95. The GbpUsd rally resumed after a brief break due to credit concerns raised by Moodys (rating agency) last week. The sterling gathered momentum breaking a major resistance point of 1.60, entering a new range with ceiling of roughly 1.62. FX activity seems to be diverging from prior correlation to equities in a reflection of risk appetite. Stock indexes managed to close positive in Europe, but our negative in the US with the Dow off less than 1% or 48pts. Commodities have taken their own course with oil prices charging higher to the mid $63bbl level, a serious driving force in price action of the UsdCad, which appreciated 5% to 1.11 over the last week.
In the Eurozone, discussions regarding monetary policy, the state of the German economy, and the health of financials are the key themes underlying price behavior in the Euro. A larger consensus of the investment community is adjust their forecast in anticipation of higher Euro prices, but on the basis of “structural” issues within the dollar, some of which lay in the false support tied into overbought treasuries. Mortgage applications sunk in the US by 14.2% versus a 2.3% dip last month, while existing home sales rose to 2.9% from -3.0% mostly fueled by foreclosure sales. Housing data tends to be very volatile, but investors are attentive to information out of this sector considering the root of the crisis.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMNY makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change.
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Asian Session: Successful US Auction Helps Risk Appetite
May 27, 2009 11:29 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CAD | 0.78 | | | | GBP | 0.36 | | | | AUD | 0.20 | | | CHF | -0.02 | | | DKK | -0.10 | | | EUR | -0.11 | | | NOK | -0.14 | | | JPY | -0.57 | | | NZD | -0.58 | | | SEK | -0.84 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,438.77 | + 1.37 | | Hang Seng Index | 17,885.27 | + 5.26 | | Shanghai Index | 2,632.93 | + 1.71 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,428.22 | + 0.37 | | DAX Index | 5,004.49 | + 0.37 | | SMI Index | 5,440.69 | + 0.17 | | DJIA futures | 8,474.00 | + 0.15 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 949.10 | - 0.30 | | Silver | 14.52 | - 0.59 | | VIX | 30.62 | - 6.16 | | Crude wti | 63.18 | + 1.16 | | USD Index | 80.21 | + 0.15 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| NBP interest rate announcement, % | 3.75 | 3.75 | PLN / --- | | BBA mortgage approvals, K May | -- | 26.1 | GBP / 08.30 | | BBA net mortgage lending, £ bn May | -- | 3.7 | GBP / 08.30 | | BBA net consumer credit, £ bn May | -- | 0.1 | GBP / 08.30 | | CPI, % y/y Apr | 8.3 | 8.5 | ZAR / 09.30 | | FHFA house prices , % q/q saar (y/y) Q1 | -- | -13.0,-8.2 | USD / 14.00 | | Existing home sales, mn saar Apr | 4.65 | 4.57 | USD / 14.00 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8152
R 2: 0.8095
R 1: 0.7930
CURRENT: 0.7890
S 1: 0.7630
S 2: 0.7450
S 3: 0.7337
EURJPY
R 3: 135.57
R 2: 134.80
R 1: 133.60
CURRENT: 133.30
S 1: 131.50
S 2: 130.73
S 3: 129.73
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4803
R 2: 1.4748
R 1: 1.4666
CURRENT: 1.4492
S 1: 1.4320
S 2: 1.4270
S 3: 1.4167
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Market Brief |
The Usd was weaker in the Asian Session, as the closely-watched US Treasury auction yesterday took place without incident. The EurUsd traded between 1.4005 and 1.3936, while the UsdJpy traded between 95.00 and 95.50. The coverage ratio suggested that there is still strong demand for US sovereign debt and confidence (based on 54.4% share of indirect bids) in the greenback place as the world’s reserve currency. However, we still have two more auctions scheduled this week (today $35bn of 5yrs). Risk appetite, which had softened, rallied back with Wall Street closing higher and Asian indexes following the US' lead. USD sold off in tandem with a bounce in risk appetite and commodities resumed their rally to corroborate a bullish outlook on global growth. In addition, the positive sentiment was helped by a very strong Conference Board consumer confidence index, coming in at 54.9 vs. 42.6 exp, 39.2 prior reading. Ahead today the market will focus on the 5yr auction and US housing data.
In Japan , trade data showed merchandise trade balance coming in above expectations at Y69bn versus deficit of Y55bn. The figures will come as a relief to the government and the BoJ, both of which have recently upgraded their views on the economy and pinned hopes of a recovery on an improvement in exports. "The sharp deterioration in economic and financial conditions in Japan and abroad since last Autumn is starting to level out and there is a prospect of a mild recovery ahead," Shirakawa said earlier in the day in a speech.
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US Session: G10 Currencies Mixed Versus the Dollar and Shift in Risk Appetite
May 27, 2009 12:38 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Jpy | 0.09 | | | | Sek | 0.10 | | | | Aud | 0.05 | | | | Gbp | 0.05 | | | | Eur | 0.04 | | | | Dkk | 0.04 | | | | Cad | 0.03 | | | | Chf | 0.01 | | | | Nok | 0.01 | | | Nzd | -0.21 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,473.49 | + 2.37 | | S&P 500 Index | 910.33 | + 2.63 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,750.43 | + 3.45 | | Nikkei 225 Futures | 9,230.00 | + 1.19 | | Hang Seng Futures | 16,920.00 | - 0.01 | | FTSE futures | 4,398.00 | + 1.24 | | SMI Futures | 5,429.00 | - 0.26 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 62.44 | + 1.25 | | Gold | 952.15 | + 0.02 | | Silver | 14.60 | - 0.07 | | USD Index | 80.09 | + 0.08 | | VIX | 30.62 | - 6.16 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8095
R 2: 0.7930
R 1: 0.7870
CURRENT: 0.7764
S 1: 0.7630
S 2: 0.7450
S 3: 0.7337
EURJPY
R 3: 135.55
R 2: 134.80
R 1: 133.60
CURRENT: 131.91
S 1: 130.73
S 2: 129.75
S 3: 126.60
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4748
R 2: 1.4665
R 1: 1.4555
CURRENT: 1.4513
S 1: 1.4320
S 2: 1.4270
S 3: 1.4167
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Market Brief |
Economic data was mixed this morning, with the S&P Case/Schiller Index dropping 18.7% on an annual basis. This announcement supplemented the news from North Korea, which also acted as a catalyst to risk aversion. Most of the G10 began to depreciate, but the move was halted by a much better than expected consumer confidence number, which was released at 54.9 vs. 42.6 (Est.). Following the economic data regarding consumer confidence the market is poised for a recovery in selling activity earlier in the session. There are still some pockets of concern in other regions, particularly Germany having further issues resolving $280bln in “bad debt” on bank balance sheets.
This is of serious concern for traders holding long positions in the Euro, as deterioration in the German economy will have an adverse affect to unifying Eurozone monetary policy. Troubled economies looking to borrow capital from Germany will be less likely to obtain credit from if the climate worsens. German Ifo business climate index rose on a monthly basis to 84.2, but came in worst than anticipated at 85.0. The Euro experienced a sharp drop early in the session, but managed to rally back, testing the 1.40 level as the next resistance point before it will break out into a new range. The Sterling remains resilient hovering around the low range of 1.59, seeking 1.60 as a definitive target before entering a new price range. We expect to see a continuance in the risk rally, but a strong sensitivity to economic data which may act as an obstacle in terms of measuring the likelihood of a long-term recovery.
Risk Disclaimer:
Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss in trading off‐exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. ACMNY makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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