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Asian Session: Fickle Investors Return to Stocks
May 19, 2009 11:58 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | SEK | 1.31 |  | | | NZD | 1.29 | | | | AUD | 0.77 | | | | GBP | 0.76 | | | | NOK | 0.73 | | | | EUR | 0.37 | | | | DKK | 0.34 | | | | CAD | 0.30 | | | | CHF | 0.17 | |  | JPY | -0.33 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,290.29 | + 2.73 | | Hang Seng Index | 17,538.69 | + 3.03 | | Shanghai Index | 2,672.13 | + 0.72 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,446.45 | + 2.26 | | DAX Index | 4,851.96 | + 2.41 | | SMI Index | 5,435.12 | + 1.57 | | DJIA futures | 8,498.00 | + 0.33 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 923.23 | + 0.54 | | Silver | 13.87 | + 0.79 | | VIX | 30.24 | - 8.69 | | Crude wti | 60.14 | + 1.88 | | USD Index | 82.55 | + 0.02 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Mainland GDP, % q/q (y/y) Q1 | -0.5 | -0.2 (0.4) | NOK / 08.00 | | CPI, % m/m (y/y) Apr | 0.4 (2.4) | 0.2 (2.9) | GBP / 08.30 | | RPI, % m/m (y/y) Apr | 0.0 (-1.4) | 0.0 (-0.4) | GBP / 08.30 | | RPIX, % m/m (y/y) Apr | 0.5 (1.8) | 0.2 (2.2) | GBP / 08.30 | | ZEW economic expectations index May | 20.0 | 13.0 | GE / 09.00 | | Construction output, % m/m (y/y wda) Mar | -- | -1.8,-11.8 | EUR / 09.00 | | Building permits, mn units saar Apr | 0.530 | 0.516 | USD / 12.30 | | Housing starts, mn units saar Apr | 0.530 | 0.510 | USD / 12.30 | | FRB of Minneapolis President Stern (FOMC non-voter | -- | -- | USD / 17.15 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8348
R 2: 0.8097
R 1: 0.7714
CURRENT: 0.7695
S 1: 0.7451
S 2: 0.7337
S 3: 0.7233
EURJPY
R 3: 133.59
R 2: 132.40
R 1: 131.15
CURRENT: 131.26
S 1: 126.63
S 2: 124.39
S 3: 122.13
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4882
R 2: 1.4845
R 1: 1.4803
CURRENT: 1.4637
S 1: 1.4623
S 2: 1.4501
S 3: 1.4446
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Market Brief |
The Usd was weaker in the Asian session, as risk appetite rallied back. The EurUsd traded up to 1.3571 from 1.3530, while the UsdJpy was range bound, trading between 96.13 and 96.62. Overall confidence was driven by flow into EM equity markets and better than expected US figures. It seems that the risk rally is full steam ahead (despite negative indicators to the contrary) and participants’ are looking to price in a full global recovery. Wall Street closed higher with the S&P up 3.0% and Asian regional indexes are following close behind. Obviously, the risk to this current optimism is that massive government intervention and stimulus has artificially propped up asset prices in the short term and should buyer tighten their purse strings this rally will come to an abrupt halt. Commodities have benefited from the mood swing, with crude and gold now trading above $60.00bll & $923.00oz, respectively. And, in turn, commodity currencies also were big gainers. The orderly conclusion of India's democratic election helped give EM equity markets and currencies a decent boost. Vice-Finance Minister Sugimoto said yesterday that the MoF is monitoring FX markets closely. This gave further support to USDJPY buying . However, we think it is too premature to be worrying about Japan intervening and would need more pronounced weakness in the US dollar to warrant action .
RBA's Governor Glen Stevens spoke this morning and said that rates were "pretty low" and that China's growth is picking up. The RBA Minutes released today effectively signaled that the central bank is now in a hold pattern as it evaluates the global and domestic recovery. We expect the RBA will sit on the sidelines in the coming months, as it monitors the effect of the second stimulus package and direction of economic indicators.
Today, the German ZEW measure of investor sentiment is likely to have continued its upward trend in May. In the UK, we expect the April CPI figures to show a continuation of the downward trend in inflation. And in the US, we have penciled in a rise in housing starts to 550,000, compared with 510,000 in March.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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