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US Session: Dollar Pummeled Under Shift to Positve Bias Regarding Riskier Assets
May 19, 2009 12:05 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | Sek | 2.69 |  | | | Aud | 2.33 | | | | Nzd | 1.83 | | | | Cad | 1.45 | | | | Nok | 1.17 | | | | Gbp | 1.08 | | | | Chf | 0.65 | | | | Eur | 0.47 | | | | Dkk | 0.46 | |  | Jpy | -1.15 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| DJIA Index | 8,504.08 | + 2.85 | | S&P 500 Index | 909.71 | + 3.04 | | NASDAQ 100 Index | 1,732.36 | + 3.11 | | FTSE futures | 4,412.50 | + 2.14 | | CAC futures | 3,194.00 | + 2.39 | | DAX futures | 4,846.50 | + 2.31 | | SMI Futures | 5,435.00 | + 1.57 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Crude wti | 59.20 | + 5.08 | | Gold | 916.95 | - 1.59 | | Silver | 13.74 | - 1.79 | | USD Index | 82.56 | - 0.47 | | VIX | 30.24 | - 8.70 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| No Major Events Scheduled | | | |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8097
R 2: 0.7740
R 1: 0.7620
CURRENT: 0.7521
S 1: 0.7337
S 2: 0.7233
S 3: 0.7050
EURJPY
R 3: 133.60
R 2: 132.40
R 1: 131.15
CURRENT: 128.32
S 1: 126.63
S 2: 124.40
S 3: 122.13
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4880
R 2: 1.4845
R 1: 1.4800
CURRENT: 1.4711
S 1: 1.4623
S 2: 1.4500
S 3: 1.4446
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Market Brief |
The week started off with a surge in risk appetite causing the dollar to lose ground against most of the
G10. There were several components that led to an overall rally in equities and commodities, the core
of which is rooted in slightly improving economic data on a global level. The NAHB (National Association
of Home Builders) index rose to its 16, for the first time since August of 2008, showing an uptick in
home sales expectations in the US. Outside of the positive housing data, bulls benefited from an
announcement that several major financial institutions applied to repay $45bln in capital provided
through the TARP program. Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley were the firms who made
the declaration regarding TARP repayment, this was a direct catalyst to a rally in the financial sector and
thus trickled down to instruments who benefit from environments of higher risk appetite.
Commodity linked currencies like the Cad, Aud, and Nzd rallied strong, as oil surged to $59bbl testing
the $60bbl level of support. The Sterling was in the spotlight among the G10 due to growing consensus
of Traders and Analysts who believe the currency is oversold. Some argue that from a technical
perspective we are seeing a typical head and shoulders pattern, but a large proponent of the
marketplace sees relative value in the cable at these levels. The GbpUsd gained nearly 160pips securing
a price in the low range of 1.53, the same range the EurUsd was trading at in August of 2008. We should
expect further dollar pressure if the “stabilization rally” continues as some are calling it.
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change.
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Asian Session: FX Markets Lack Direction
May 18, 2009 11:45 AM CEST
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G10 Advancers and Decliners vs USD |
| | CAD | 0.25 | | | | GBP | 0.18 | | | | AUD | 0.03 | | | NZD | -0.15 | | | SEK | -0.23 | | | NOK | -0.25 | | | JPY | -0.65 | | | DKK | -0.69 | | | EUR | -0.70 | | | CHF | -0.72 | |
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Global Indexes |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Nikkei 225 Index | 9,038.69 | - 2.44 | | Hang Seng Index | 17,022.91 | + 1.38 | | Shanghai Index | 2,652.78 | + 0.28 | | FTSE 100 Index | 4,350.30 | + 0.05 | | DAX Index | 4,694.68 | - 0.90 | | SMI Index | 5,323.15 | - 0.51 | | DJIA futures | 8,234.00 | - 0.39 |
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World Markets |
Current Level |
% Change |
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| Gold | 929.75 | - 0.22 | | Silver | 13.94 | - 0.37 | | VIX | 33.12 | + 5.57 | | Crude wti | 56.76 | + 0.74 | | USD Index | 83.05 | + 0.11 |
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Todays Calender |
Estimates |
Previous |
Country / GMT |
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| Trade balance, bn (sa) Mar | -- | -4.0 | EUR / 9.00 | | NAHB housing market, index May | 16 | 14 | USD / 17.00 | | Industrial production, % y/y Mar | -8.3 | -13.2 | MXN / 19.30 |
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Currency Tech |
AUDUSD
R 3: 0.8097
R 2: 0.7740
R 1: 0.7620
CURRENT: 0.7521
S 1: 0.7337
S 2: 0.7233
S 3: 0.7050
EURJPY
R 3: 133.60
R 2: 132.40
R 1: 131.15
CURRENT: 128.32
S 1: 126.63
S 2: 124.40
S 3: 122.13
USDSGD
R 3: 1.4880
R 2: 1.4845
R 1: 1.4800
CURRENT: 1.4711
S 1: 1.4623
S 2: 1.4500
S 3: 1.4446
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Market Brief |
The Usd was mixed in the Asian session, as markets look uncertain of a direction. The EurUsd traded between 1.3440 and 1.3498, while the UsdJpy weakened to 94.60 in early trading before trading up to 94.45, as Europe opened. Economic data last week was mixed at best, with data probably confirming that economic contraction has bottomed out, yet meaningful recovery should not be expected in the near term. German GDP, which signaled a -3.8% decline in activity for the first three months of 2009, took the wind out of the Eur sails. Currently, the economic forecasts reflected in market pricing have overshot true conditions and a correction is highly likely. Following Europe, the US equity futures are pointing toward a negative open. In Japan, Moody’s unified Japan's ratings to Aa2, downgrading foreign currency JGB ratings from AAA but upgrading local currency ratings from Aa3. While in economic data Japanese consumer confidence came in slightly better than expectations at 33.2 vs. 31.2 exp and household consumer confidence also surprised to the upside 32.4 vs. 32.0 exp. The SNB has still not commented on Friday's spectacular EURCHF rally. In addition, official rhetoric recently showed the SNB moved beyond the usual threats of currency intervention and chose to provide more specifics on its recent operations, such as the foray into covered bonds.
With a light calendar today in Europe and the US, markets will be debating the aspects of the global recovery and watching equity markets for direction.
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ACM Advanced Currency Markets SA (hereinafter referred as ACM) is a professional financial intermediary, directly regulated by the Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Anti Money Laundering Control Authority. As forex specialist, ACM provides only currency trading via highly professional forex trading software. All customers are aware that this information or any part thereof has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation and/or needs. This information is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. The analysis is based on the information which ACM finds reliable and accurate, but ACM does not assume any responsibility for any material nor for the transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the analysis. ACM cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct, indirect and/or consequential loss arising from any use of this information, document or its content. All opinions and estimates constitute ACM analysis as of the data and are subject to change without notice. ACM does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
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